2022 Arkle

[Carnage at Taunton]

This is on the money. I was trying to be diplomatic. This version is better

You post pretty much summed up my situation Charlie.
In that im not one of those purring with nice prices, i did not see it coming.
But instead of trying to pick holes and talk myself into not fancying him at the price etc etc, i find myself thinking hes the most likely winner.
And having Blue Lord at a nice price,i think if i have Edward i then have the winner between them.
Of course i could be wrong and something else wins, but thats my thoughts right now.

For me im just not a punter thats going to take 2/1 on any horse at this stage, and probably not on the day either.
My punting rules dont allow it.

Maybe i should just stick with Blue Lord.
Old fashioned gambling if you like!!

[Benjy23]

The 2 Mile novice chase division in the UK is very poor.
It looked like being at the start of the season and it's turned out that way, aside from Edwardstone who could have improved sufficiently to be competitive, or even win the race.
It's why I was so annoyed that Monmiral stayed hurdling.
If the three 5 year olds from Ireland run really well in the arkle, then Paul Nichols should write a letter of apology to me and admit he was wrong.
I fully expect this, so someone tell him please.

He'd have 100% added to the glorious 5yo recent record in the Arkle.

[Leman14]

That’s kind of where I’m at.

Have Blue Lord, Magic Daze & TTL.

In such an open year, you could make a reasonable case for 4 or 5 others and they’re all too short.

I like Spectre’s case for Coeur Sublime, but I’ll leave it until the day now.

[charlie]

You post pretty much summed up my situation Charlie.
In that im not one of those purring with nice prices, i did not see it coming.
But instead of trying to pick holes and talk myself into not fancying him at the price etc etc, i find myself thinking hes the most likely winner.
And having Blue Lord at a nice price,i think if i have Edward i then have the winner between them.
Of course i could be wrong and something else wins, but thats my thoughts right now.

For me im just not a punter thats going to take 2/1 on any horse at this stage, and probably not on the day either.
My punting rules dont allow it.

Maybe i should just stick with Blue Lord.
Old fashioned gambling if you like!!

These are good rules to have that will stand you in good stead long term.

[Istabraq]

Let’s face it, it's a weak renewal so crab Edwardstone’s form as much as you like, he’s 2/1 here for a reason.
I’ve got a nice voucher on him but have felt all season there are better horses than him in this, but they keep falling away, and there are now few viable options that can beat him.
For what it’s worth I make Haut en Coluers the most likely/biggest improver and therefore the best value in the race, the 5yo trend for me is meaningless in a weak year, someone’s got to win it and the weaker the renewal the more chance of a trendsbuster…

[Quevega]

He'd have 100% added to the glorious 5yo recent record in the Arkle.

Not enough have tried.
The ones that have have performed above par.
This year looks different so we'll see how it pans out.

[Splinterboy82]

Each to their own.
Those 4 points mean nothing to me when looking at the winner of this race or indeed any race to be honest.
Trainer has proved in the past perfectly capable when having a good enough one .
His chase performances is whats important to me.
Hes proved he can jump well enough.
Backing the horse, not the jockey. Hes won on the horse enough for me to be perfectly happy with him anyway.

That’s cool mate. As you quite rightly say, it is each to their own. Personally for me, I currently value the Irish jocks in general about 3-5lb better ability at Cheltenham than the UK weighing room (Few exceptions) so when looking at a fav that I already think is questionable at the price, this is quite a big part of my thinking.

I actually really like Alan King by the way. I just think whatever anyone says, the pressure of having gone so long without a winner at the festival does play a part & when dealing with a fairly short price fav in the Arkle, it can come into play (prep, tactics, psychological etc) - King has actually mentioned this in interviews over the last few yrs when talking about Trueshan. Maybe nothing, but I personally think it’s something to factor in a little.

[Splinterboy82]

I agree that he's a poor favourite and also won't be looking to get him onside here now. Main reason for me would be his age and amount of time spent hurdling to be honest.

Very simple trend but last ten winners were all aged 6 or 7. Can use that to rule out quite a lot of these. Only leaves you Blue Lord below 16/1

Not sure on the above reasoning of being BD earlier this season at no fault of his own and then selecting HeC, who has a 50% fall record over fences. I've gone off HeC a bit now. He'd have to destroy loads of trends in this.

Actually think Blue Lord is still a very good price whenever I look at this race.

Don’t disagree at all about Blue Lord still being very solid bud. I actually think people are taking the ‘would have been beat last time if Riv had jumped the last’ a bit too far the other way tbh.

As with all trends it’s context isn’t it. Since they removed the 5yo allowance, how many have tried vs the 6-7yos? Percentage of that & the rating of the 5yos would bring that to life. Similarly, I’m not knocking Eds jumping - but on stats the last Arkle winner not to complete on his first start was the mighty Moscow Flyer 20 yrs ago. Not sure on when if any a horse has failed to complete his first 2 starts over fences before winning this? This along with his average hurdle rating & the other bits I’ve posted mean I couldn’t touch him as a winner. Weirdly, I’d actually have probably of backed him in the w/o fav market on the day if FH / AI was in here as an odds on fav as would have suited in change of race dynamic.

Respect anyone on or who fancies Ed, just defo not one for me.

[Rooster Booster]

That’s cool mate. As you quite rightly say, it is each to their own. Personally for me, I currently value the Irish jocks in general about 3-5lb better ability at Cheltenham than the UK weighing room (Few exceptions) so when looking at a fav that I already think is questionable at the price, this is quite a big part of my thinking.

I actually really like Alan King by the way. I just think whatever anyone says, the pressure of having gone so long without a winner at the festival does play a part & when dealing with a fairly short price fav in the Arkle, it can come into play (prep, tactics, psychological etc) - King has actually mentioned this in interviews over the last few yrs when talking about Trueshan. Maybe nothing, but I personally think it’s something to factor in a little.

Well with 9 wins out of 14 and over a million in prize money I agree the pressure seems to be getting to him with Trueshan... I’ll be polite as I can ...... I don’t think the trainer not being able to handle the pressure will affect Edwardstones chances.

[Benjy23]

Don’t disagree at all about Blue Lord still being very solid bud. I actually think people are taking the ‘would have been beat last time if Riv had jumped the last’ a bit too far the other way tbh.

As with all trends it’s context isn’t it. Since they removed the 5yo allowance, how many have tried vs the 6-7yos? Percentage of that & the rating of the 5yos would bring that to life. Similarly, I’m not knocking Eds jumping - but on stats the last Arkle winner not to complete on his first start was the mighty Moscow Flyer 20 yrs ago. Not sure on when if any a horse has failed to complete his first 2 starts over fences before winning this? This along with his average hurdle rating & the other bits I’ve posted mean I couldn’t touch him as a winner. Weirdly, I’d actually have probably of backed him in the w/o fav market on the day if FH / AI was in here as an odds on fav as would have suited in change of race dynamic.

Respect anyone on or who fancies Ed, just defo not one for me.

Aye, the fall on debut over fences and the subsequent decision to revert to hurdles is a little odd isn't it. For one that's now turning up as an Arkle favourite the following year. That's the kind of thing that puts me off as well to be honest. Even that year chasing seemed a bit of an after thought. Although I assume he's surprised them with how good he's been this season...

The age stats are more against Edwardstone than the 5yos I expect. Wasn't entirely serious about writing them all off purely based on that this year. Just an interesting headline trend, as the discussion was around trends.

[charlie]

The other thing with Blue Lord is his first two races were nothing races where no pressure was applied to his jumping and he just dossed around. LTO will have been a big learning curve for him and if he improves and Edwardstone takes a slight dip as he tends to do at Cheltenham, I think Blue Lord will beat him. It's great though. W/O Edwardstone and Blue Lord would be 5/4 maybe even odds on on the day. Edwardstone is going to hold his price which is lovely.

[Splinterboy82]

Well with 9 wins out of 14 and over a million in prize money I agree the pressure seems to be getting to him with Trueshan... I’ll be polite as I can ...... I don’t think the trainer not being able to handle the pressure will affect Edwardstones chances.

I appreciate your politeness Rooster

Look, I’m not wanting to bash King. I really like & rate him as a trainer. It’s just a little doubt in my mind, pressure valve in going that long without a Cheltenham winner etc. When Trueshan broke through into the big time on champions day he was an 11/1 poke. It’s probably nothing, but it just bugs me a little when dealing with an Arkle fav with a fair few other things going against him for me, that’s all

[Rooster Booster]

I appreciate your politeness Rooster

Look, I’m not wanting to bash King. I really like & rate him as a trainer. It’s just a little doubt in my mind, pressure valve in going that long without a Cheltenham winner etc. When Trueshan broke through into the big time on champions day he was an 11/1 poke. It’s probably nothing, but it just bugs me a little when dealing with an Arkle fav with a fair few other things going against him for me, that’s all

Well let me put it another way, I’m sure supporters of Edwardstone will be happy enough with the trainer feeling the pressure if Trueshan is the example of what happens when he is under pressure.

[Splinterboy82]

Well let me put it another way, I’m sure supporters of Edwardstone will be happy enough with the trainer feeling the pressure if Trueshan is the example of what happens when he is under pressure.

Noted….which I guess is one of the many reasons they’ll be a supporter of Edwardstone

[Morley Street]

I appreciate your politeness Rooster

Look, I’m not wanting to bash King. I really like & rate him as a trainer. It’s just a little doubt in my mind, pressure valve in going that long without a Cheltenham winner etc. When Trueshan broke through into the big time on champions day he was an 11/1 poke. It’s probably nothing, but it just bugs me a little when dealing with an Arkle fav with a fair few other things going against him for me, that’s all

It may be a little time between drinks but it’s not as if he hasn’t won the Arkle before (twice), as well as a champion hurdle, champion chase and 10+ other festival winners. Drawing comparisons with Trueshan is pointless as that was his first really big flat break through winner. Edwardstone’s Arkle chances are not diminished in the slightest being trained by King imo.