Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle 2013

[Lester]

Nice race in Ireland on Sunday

(1:25) 19E Synergy Security Solutions Novice H'dle
(Grade 2) €25,675.00 ( 2m 4f - 5yo+ )[MAX 30]
1 Our Vinnie(137) (CByrnes) - BJGeraghty ... 11,08
2 Pont Alexandre (GER) (WPMullins) - . ...... 11,07
3 Anonis (GER) (MsMMullins) - DEMullins ... 11,03
4 Free To Dream(123) (MOCullinane) - .(T) .. 11,03
5 Seefood(137) (DTHughes) - BJCooper....... 11,03
6 Sizing Gold(128) (Hde Bromhead) - AELynch ...................... 11,03
7 Ally Cascade(137) (NMeade) - DNRussell . 11,00
8 Third Opinion (TJTaaffe) - AndrewJMcNamara .... 11,00

[Lester]

Pont Alexandre look the real deal

[mayo]

Pont Alexandre look the real deal

It was Ruby's reaction that was most impressive. Seemed totally buzzin about him.

We has also won at Navan which is a good trial for Cheltenham - left handed undulations up hill finish so no worries about track. Not totally convinced that he would handle better ground but for no other reason than the way he sluiced through this.

[mayo]

Donn McCleans reaction

At least the novice hurdlers are getting themselves into some sort of order now, and that can only be a good thing.

Pont Alexandre was the main one from the weekend, of course. He was already a Grade 1 winner before he went to post for the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday, but there was just something about that Grade 1 win at Navan that needed backing-up. Okay, so he had Don Cossack beaten before that horse fell at the final flight, but Gordon Elliott had said afterwards that that wasn’t Don Cossack’s true running, and that was easy to believe.

If Rich Ricci’s horse had to go and do it again, he did on Sunday. People said afterwards that he did it the hard way, as in, he led all the way. People often say that he did it that hard way when a horse leads all the way, but often that is the easy way. Often the best place to be is in front. It wasn’t the easy way on Sunday though. With a force seven gale that blew the horses out into the centre of the track down the back straight and down towards the rail in the home straight, cover would have been a good thing, especially for a just-turned-five-year-old who was racing for just the third time in his life.

His trainer Willie Mullins said afterwards that he as like a big sail, the size of him, catching the wind and getting blown around down the back straight. As well as that, he was giving weight to most of his rivals, most of them older than him, most of them exciting novices themselves. But it didn’t matter, he was always in command under Ruby Walsh and he coasted home.

It was interesting that Mullins seemed to be fairly sure – or as fairly sure as he ever is about these things – that Pont Alexandre’s Cheltenham target would be the Neptune Hurdle, not the Albert Bartlett. That makes sense. He showed two-and-a-half-mile pace here. Not that he won’t be a staying chaser in the future, there is plenty of time for that, but the Neptune looks like his most logical Cheltenham target this year. That leaves Ballycasey for the Albert Bartlett, Un Atout for the Supreme. Maybe Champagne Fever for the Neptune as well, if he recovers from his respiratory tract infection on time. Hopefully he will make it back in time to run in the Deloitte Hurdle on Hennessy day at Leopardstown anyway. At least then we’ll know more.

Pont Alexandre will probably meet The New One in the Neptune, despite the fact that the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse got beaten in one of the other Neptune Hurdles at Cheltenham on Saturday. Rider Sam Twiston-Davies was beating himself up a little after the race for going to the front too early, but the youngster shouldn’t be too hard on himself, he didn’t do much wrong. He was just beaten by a very good horse in these conditions in At Fishers Cross under an inspired AP McCoy. It was a little surprising, mind you, that the bookmakers didn’t push the runner-up out to bigger than just 5/1 for the Neptune in the light of this defeat, or after Pont Alexandre’s impressive victory.

This two and a half miles is probably on the sharp side for At Fishers Cross. JP McManus’ horse needed every yard of it, every sinew of McCoy’s energy and every bit of heavy that was in the ground to just reel The New One back in after that horse had gone at least two lengths clear. He is probably much more an Albert Bartlett horse than a Neptune horse, as trainer Rebecca Curtis suggested afterwards, unless the ground came up very heavy at the Festival, which is unlikely. He would probably appreciate a bit of easy ground even in the three-mile race.

[Old Vic]

THE NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

Class 1, Grade 1, Total Prize Fund £120,000, 2.05pm, Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 13, 2013. Old Course, two miles and five furlongs.

For novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights: four-year-olds 10st 12lb; five-year-olds and upwards 11st 7lb. Allowances: fillies & mares 7lb.

Entries closed Tuesday, January 29, 2013. Entries revealed Thursday, January 31 (119 entries). Scratchings deadline February 19. Six-day confirmation stage March 7. Final declaration stage 10am, Tuesday, March 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, January 28. May not include some overseas form.

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
2 AAIM TO PROSPER (IRE) 9 CGA Racing Partnership 2 Paul Nicholls
ABBEY COURT (IRE) 5 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
3-12154 ALLY CASCADE (IRE) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
1111 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
3/-11F ANONIS (GER) 7 Barry Connell Mags Mullins IRE
25-1111 AT FISHERS CROSS (IRE) 6 J P McManus Rebecca Curtis
1-11 BALLYCASEY (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1-14 BALNASLOW (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
5-3F651 BLISSFUL MOMENT (USA) 6 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE
324112 BONDAGE (IRE) 6 Bodhran Makers Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
11343 BONISLAND 5 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
240-13 BRIGHT NEW DAWN (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
11 BROADWAY BUFFALO (IRE) 5 The Broadway Partnership David Pipe
1 BUTHELEZI (USA) 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
031222 CAID DU BERLAIS (FR) 4 Donlon, MacDonald, C Barber & Paul Nicholls Paul Nicholls
261311 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE
041 CAYMAN ISLANDS 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
111-123 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1 CHAT ROOM 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
1-1 CHATTERBOX (IRE) 5 The Not Afraid Partnership 2 Nicky Henderson
211/- CHELTENIAN (FR) 7 Roger Brookhouse Philip Hobbs
661 CHIBERTA KING 7 The Pink Hat Racing Partnership Andrew Balding
4 COCKTAILS AT DAWN 5 Robin Geffen & Sir John Ritblat Nicky Henderson
10-1113 CONEYGREE 6 The Max Partnership Mark Bradstock
DARLEY SUN (IRE) 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson
2-1 DEFY LOGIC (IRE) 6 J P McManus Paul Nolan IRE
5111-1F DON COSSACK (GER) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
04-212 DRUM VALLEY 5 D J Burke & T Meehan Oliver Sherwood
2112P DURSEY SOUND (IRE) 5 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
3-2112 EASTER DAY (FR) 5 Barry Fulton, Broughton Thermal Insulation Paul Nicholls
1-213 EDUARD (IRE) 5 Kingdom Taverns Ltd Nicky Richards
P ELECTROLYSER (IRE) 8 Mr and Mrs P Hargreaves Nicky Henderson
FAMOUSANDFEARLESS (IRE) 5 The Bravo Partnership David Pipe
25/05-23 FAULTLESS FEELINGS (IRE) 7 Mrs Peter Prowting Martin Keighley
FLYING CROSS (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen David Pipe
124 GAS LINE BOY (IRE) 7 Mick Fitzgerald Racing Club Philip Hobbs
14-111 GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (FR) 5 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe
112131 GLENS MELODY (IRE) 5 Mrs F McStay Willie Mullins IRE
132 GOLD BULLET (IRE) 5 Fitri Hay Tom Taaffe IRE
10-1P I SHOT THE SHERIFF (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe
40-3110 IFANDBUTWHYNOT (IRE) 7 Claire Hollowood & Henry Dean David O'Meara
1 JUST A PAR (IRE) 6 Paul Barber & Graham Roach Paul Nicholls
232104 KATKEAU (FR) 6 Prof C Tisdall, J A Gent, R Wilkin David Pipe
41 KING HELISSIO (IRE) 5 Jane Gerard-Pearse Neil Mulholland
12F KINGS PALACE (IRE) 5 Drew, George, Johnson Partnership David Pipe
345 LE REVE (IRE) 5 Pat Betts Lucy Wadham
LECALE LAD (IRE) 6 Robert Kirkland Tim Vaughan
0-F1 LEGAL EXIT (IRE) 6 Mary Samworth Jim Culloty IRE
32 LIENOSUS (IRE) 7 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
11-21 LORD WISHES (IRE) 6 Leeds Plywood and Doors Ltd James Ewart
34116 LORD OF HOUSE (GER) 5 Good Lord Partnership Charlie Mann
14 LORDOFTHEHOUSE (IRE) 5 St Albans Bloodstock LLP Tom George
MAC'S RETURN (IRE) 6 John Hales Paul Nicholls
00-03r1 MALA BEACH (IRE) 5 C Jones Gordon Elliott IRE
100-212 MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 6 Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood
05-1 MASTER OF THE GAME (IRE) 7 Richard & Lizzie Kelvin Hughes Nicky Henderson
12-211 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 7 Cash For Honours Jeremy Scott
61P MINELLA DEFINITELY (IRE) 6 Wellcroomed T/A eyewearoutlet.co.uk Neil Mulholland
2-142 MINSK (IRE) 5 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE
242-411 MORNING ROYALTY (IRE) 6 Eileen Milligan James Moffatt
31114-1 MOSCOW MANNON (IRE) 7 J M Flanagan Brian Hamilton IRE
2/1213-1 MOZOLTOV 7 Martin Lynch Willie Mullins IRE
3-4511 MR WATSON (IRE) 6 Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill
1120-2 NEW YEAR'S EVE 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
311 O'FAOLAINS BOY (IRE) 6 C Trembath & R Hyde Rebecca Curtis
333- OFF THE WALL (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark David Pipe
1 PAY THE KING (IRE) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
31 PINE CREEK 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
3-31121 PIQUE SOUS (FR) 6 Supreme Horse Racing Club Willie Mullins IRE
111 PONT ALEXANDRE (GER) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1 PRIDEOFTHECASTLE (IRE) 6 B J C Drew David Pipe
1-111 PUFFIN BILLY (IRE) 5 T D J Syder Oliver Sherwood
2-11 RED DEVIL BOYS (IRE) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
111 ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
1 ROCKNROLLRAMBO (IRE) 6 Paul Frank Barry Anthony Middleton
106102 ROMEO AMERICO (IRE) 6 Mark Adams Seamus Mullins
23 ROYAL BOY (FR) 6 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
1/410-55 ROYAL GUARDSMAN (IRE) 6 Camilla & Rosie Nock Susan Nock
1211 RULE THE WORLD 6 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
SAIL BY THE SEA (IRE) 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe
2 SAUSALITO SUNRISE (IRE) 5 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
1444-12 SEEDSMAN 6 Christopher Spence & Partners Charles Egerton
1112U6 SEEFOOD (IRE) 6 Lyreen Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE
112311 SHE RANKS ME (IRE) 6 Roger O'Byrne Donald McCain
111-311 SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (IRE) 6 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
2/-2 SIDNEY MELBOURNE (USA) 6 CGA Racing Partnership 5 Paul Nicholls
4U35/- SIR PITT 6 Gordon Kendrick Andy Hobbs
21-2212 SIZING GOLD (IRE) 6 Alan & Ann Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
1-4r SOME ARTICLE (IRE) 5 J P McManus Thomas Mullins IRE
6101 SUPERIOR QUALITY (IRE) 8 The Stewkley Shindiggers Partnership Charlie Longsdon
F5-1211 TANERKO EMERY (FR) 7 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd David Pipe
1211 TAQUIN DU SEUIL (FR) 6 Martin Broughton & Friends 1 Jonjo O'Neill
61-1112 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 5 Mrs S Such Nigel Twiston-Davies
10-2211 THE ROMFORD PELE (IRE) 6 Trembath, Hill, Outhart, Fletcher Rebecca Curtis
5 THIMAAR (USA) 5 Jon Glews, 24-7, D & Fred Lockwood Donald McCain
10 TOMINATOR 6 Patsy Byrne Jonjo O'Neill
21 TOP GAMBLE (IRE) 5 Walters Plant Hire Ltd David Pipe
12/-1 TOUCH THE EDEN (FR) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
5/1/-1 TWIGLINE (FR) 6 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
11 TWO ROCKERS (IRE) 6 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King
3P4-234 UBAK (FR) 5 Nick Peacock Gary Moore
1-12 UMPACT (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE
1-11 UN ATOUT (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
5-11 UN BON P'TIT GARS (FR) 5 K Alexander/ R Watts Nick Williams
0-2321 UNIKA LA RECONCE (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1-1 UNIQUE DE COTTE (FR) 5 J P McManus David Pipe
1F1 UP AND GO (FR) 5 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
11-1P22 UP TO SOMETHING (FR) 5 E M G Roberts Charlie Longsdon
532141 UTOPIE DES BORDES (FR) 5 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson
10-12 VENTURE CAPITAL (IRE) 6 J P McManus Philip Fenton IRE
205-256 VILLAGE VIC (IRE) 6 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs
2 VIVA STEVE (IRE) 5 Camilla Radford Mick Channon
111/2-12 WAAHEB (USA) 6 J P McManus Dermot Weld IRE
132 WAKE YOUR DREAMS (IRE) 5 Pam Beardmore & Alan Baxter Jennie Candlish
WESTERN WARHORSE (IRE) 5 Roger Brookhouse David Pipe
1-14 WHISPER (FR) 5 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson
1 WHISPERING GALLERY 7 Bloomfields John Ferguson
3-63414 WINGTIPS (FR) 5 Sheila Moffett Tony Martin IRE
ZUIDER ZEE (GER) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
119 entries, 35 Irish-trained

[Old Vic]

Breakdown of Entries per Trainer and Past Successes in the
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

14 entries
David Pipe

12 entries
Willie Mullins IRE (2008 Fiveforthree, 2009 Mikael D’Haguenet)

9 entries
John Ferguson

8 entries
Nicky Henderson (2012 Simonsig)

7 entries
Paul Nicholls

5 entries
Gordon Elliott IRE
Jonjo O’Neill

4 entries
Philip Hobbs (2007 Massini’s Maguire)

3 entries
Rebecca Curtis
Dessie Hughes IRE (2003 Hardy Eustace)
Donald McCain (2010 Peddlers Cross)
Noel Meade IRE (2006 Nicanor)
Oliver Sherwood (1987 The West Awake, 1988 Rebel Song)

2 entries
Charlie Longsdon
Tony Martin IRE
Neil Mulholland

1 entry
Andrew Balding
Mark Bradstock
Henry de Bromhead IRE
Jennie Candlish
Mick Channon
Jim Culloty IRE
Charles Egerton
James Ewart
Philip Fenton IRE
Tom George (2002 Galileo)
Brian Hamilton IRE
Andy Hobbs
Martin Keighley
Alan King
Charlie Mann
Anthony Middleton
James Moffatt
Gary Moore
Mouse Morris IRE (2011 First Lieutenant)
Mags Mullins IRE
Seamus Mullins
Tom Mullins IRE
Susan Nock
Paul Nolan IRE
David O’Meara
Nicky Richards
Jeremy Scott
Tom Taaffe IRE
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1993 Gaelstrom, 2004 Fundamentalist)
Tim Vaughan
Lucy Wadham
Dermot Weld IRE
Evan Williams
Nick Williams

[Old Vic]

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle - Analysis

The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle takes place on Ladies Day, Wednesday, March 13 and has attracted 119 entries, 35 of whom are trained in Ireland.

Currently heading the market for the two mile, five furlong contest is Pont Alexandre, one of 12 entries for Ireland’s champion Jump trainer Willie Mullins. The six-year-old is unbeaten in three starts and was the effortless 11-length winner of a Grade Two contest at Leopardstown on January 27, having previously landed the Grade One Navan Novice Hurdle in December. Also among Mullins’
possible starters is Champagne Fever, winner of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at The Festival in 2012.

Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham on January 26 saw several leading contenders go head to head in the Grade Two Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. In that contest it was At Fishers Cross who prevailed by a neck from The New One with Coneygree 12 lengths back in third.

Another horse who has won a race in the series sponsored by Neptune Investment Management is Taquin Du Seuil, one of five entries for Jonjo O’Neill. The six-year-old was successful in the Neptune-sponsored contest at Sandown on December 7 before going on to register a comfortable victory in the Grade One Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury on December 29.

Oliver Sherwood was successful in the Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle with The West Awake (1987) and Rebel Song (1988) and could be back in the big time this season with Puffin Billy. The five-year-old is unbeaten in four starts and was last seen out when impressively landing a Grade Two contest at Ascot in December.

There are 35 Irish-trained entries in total. In addition to the Willie Mullins-trained dozen, the leading hopes include Rule The World, trained by Mouse Morris, who sauntered to a facile 16-length success at Naas on January 6 and Don Cossack, who started odds-on favourite in the Grade One contest won by Pont Alexandre at Navan in December but was beaten when falling at the last.

David Pipe is the trainer with the highest number of entries, 14 in total, including the smart Gevrey Chambertin while Nicky Henderson, who saddled the highly-impressive Simonsig to victory in 2012, has eight to choose from including Whisper, who won his first two starts before finishing fourth behind At Fishers Cross on Festival Trials Day.

Another trainer well represented is Newmarket-based John Ferguson. His eight entries include the 2009 Cesarewitch scorer Darley Sun, who has yet to run over hurdles.

[Sprinter]

No sign of Tistory

[Yeehaa]

If Taquin de Seuil goes to this will AP be on ...JP has 7 entries ?

[JohnC]

Mordin

CHATTERBOX DOES IT AGAIN

CHATTERBOX (24-pace adjusted 36) stretched his unbeaten record to three races with a comfortable win at Newbury

The moderate early pace of the race inevitably led to a sprint finish, and it was impressive that Chatterbox was able to jump the last cleanly at the pace he was travelling. He didn't have much of a race so this run didn't tell us too much except that he's clearly got a good turn of foot. This in turn suggests he'll do even better on faster ground.

My rating for his previous start (where he beat smart stablemate My Tent Or Yours) suggests that Chatterbox deserves his place in the Supreme Novices. Though I take on board the warning of his shrewd trainer Nicky Henderson that he thinks the race comes a year too soon for his charge.

[Old Vic]

They dont come back do they

“@paulfergusonJTF: 2011 Champion Bumper winner (not seen since) Cheltenian holds an entry at Taunton on Tuesday. In the Supreme & Neptune."

[racecaller13]

The Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2M 5F and is generally chosen for novice hurdlers with more stamina than those who go for the Supreme Novices. As with every other year there are plenty of horses with dual entries making ante post betting treacherous in this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-0-6
5yo: 4-6-53
6yo: 6-11-71
7yo: 0-3-28
8yo+: 0-0-3
10 of 10 winners have been aged 5 or 6 (10-17-124)
No 4yo has made the frame in the past 10 renewals while horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 0-3-31.

Gender
Mares (0-1-8) have gained just one place from 8 runners in the past 10 runnings.

Breeding
Irish bred: 7-10-91
French bred: 2-3-17
British bred: 1-6-41
German bred: 0-1-9
American bred: 0-0-3
9 of 10 winners were Irish or French bred
British bred hurdlers had fared poorly in this prior to Simonsig’s win last year, failing to win any of the previous 10 runnings. They have won just 1 of last 10 now, despite representing over 25% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 6 hurdles that season
8 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle starts that season
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 145+ last time out
9 of 10 winners were NH bred (exception won a listed race on the flat & was rated 102)
9 of 10 winners won over 2M 4F+
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (exception had won on only previous hurdles start)
5 of 5 Irish-trained winners had won a hurdle at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse

Other Races
Slaney Novice Hurdle winner (Rule The World): 213 (1-2-3)
Leamington Novice Hurdle winner (The New One): 21U (1-1-3)
Navan Novice Hurdle winner (Pont Alexandre): 5314 (1-1-4)
Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle winner (Pont Alexandre): 1 (1-0-1)
Irish Racing Post Champion Point-To-Point Bumper winner (Balnaslow): 1 (1-0-1)
Berkshire Media Group Maiden Hurdle winner (Many Clouds): 81 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle winner (Don Cossack): 51 (1-0-2)
Pyments Quantity Surveyors EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 322 (0-3-3)
Challow Novice Hurdle winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 2d22 (0-2-3)
Inkerman London "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle winner (Puffin Billy): 3 (0-1-1)
Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 2 (0-1-1)
Kells 4yo Maiden Hurdle winner (Un Atout): 3 (0-1-1)
Cheltenham Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race winner (Anonis): 02 (0-1-2)
Betfred Mobile Lotto Charity Introductory Hurdle winner (Chatterbox): 02 (0-1-2)
Classic Novice Hurdle winner (At Fishers Cross): 03 (0-1-2)
Hyde Novice Hurdle winner (Coneygree): 72 (0-1-2)
Winter Novice Hurdle winner (Taquin Du Seuil): 2d260 (0-1-4)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 40 (0-0-2)
Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 7745440 (0-0-7)
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Navan Novice Hurdle, finishing 12
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Bumper, finishing 63
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Winter Novice Hurdle, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners had won a bumper at previous year's Fairyhouse Easter meeting

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-3-11) has saddled 2 winners & 2 places from 7 runners in past 5 years.
Mouse Morris (1-1-5) gained a 1st, 2nd & 4th from 5 runners since 2003 (other 2 went off 100/1).
Other trainers to have trained the winner recently are Philip Hobbs (1-1-6), Noel Meade (1-1-6), Donald McCain (1-0-2), Dessie Hughes (1-0-2), Nicky Henderson (1-0-9) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-9).
Nicky Williams (0-2-2) has seen both his runners make the frame while Paul Nicholls (0-2-6) has trained 2 runners-up from his 6 runners in this.
Irish-trained runners (5-10-48) have won 5 of the last 10 (including 3 of last 5) and over 30% of their representatives have made the frame since 2003.

Price
9 of 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter & came from first 5 in betting
In the last 4 years 11 of 12 placed finishers went off shorter than 8/1.
Favourites (2-5-11) have a poor record, winning just 2 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 3.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 5 or 6
· NH bred (or won class 1 race on the flat)
· French or Irish bred gelding
· Posted an RPR of 145+ last time
· Run in 1 to 6 hurdles this season
· Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs this season
· Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2
· Won over a hurdle over 2M 4F or further
· Won the Navan, Slaney or Leamington Novice Hurdle
· Finished in first 2 in Winter Novices’ Hurdle
· From the first 5 in the betting
· Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins or Mouse Morris)

[Yeehaa]

Graham Cunningham

The Neptune market looks ripe for a bet for several reasons.

First, several of those quoted - namely Champagne Fever, Un Atout, Up And Go, Melodic Rendezvous, Chatterbox, Ballycasey, At Fishers Cross and Puffin Billy - either have alternative options or won't go to the Festival.

And second, the exciting Pont Alexandre looks increasingly likely to shorten up in the light of the above.

Regular readers will know how highly I rate The New One, but Pont Alexandre has looked a formidable novice on both his starts for Willie Mullins.

I don't expect spring ground to trouble him next month. I do expect him to go off at more like 2/1 or 7/4 than the 11/4 and 3/1 still available with three weeks to go.

[Old Vic]

Entries on first post


74 for Neptune. horses scratched include Up And Go, Aaim To Prosper, Buthelezi, Tominator, Royal Boy, Dursey Sound & Many Clouds

[mayo]

Plenty of love for Taquin De Seuil on preview threads ...also reported McCoy rides but goes to Ireland today to ride Defy Logic. Put up in Oddschecker blog

The right one to back at this stage is Defy Logic (25/1 ante-post, 20/1 NRNB) who has bolted up in eye-catching fashion on both starts this season, despite still looking a bit green. Last time he beat a solid yardstick (who was tired when unseating at the last) by a long way, giving 13lb, and that looks smart form. Although good ground is an unknown, his breeding suggests he may improve for a sound surface.

Whilst Defy Logic has been visually very impressive, the key reason for backing him is the availability of NRNB. He goes on trial this afternoon in a hot Grade 2 at Naas against Don Cossack, Moscow Mannon & Annie Power, (AP McCoy has given up his booked rides at Towcester to ride him). If he bolts up at Naas his price will tumble. If he isn’t up to the rise in class then he’s likely not to go to the Festival so we’ll get our money back and can look at the race afresh.

A riskier strategy would be to take the 25/1 ante-post, but even if he wins he might have too hard a race to go to Cheltenham in 17 days time or connections might decide to keep him at home anyway this spring with chasing next season in mind. Given the various scenarios where he might not run in the Neptune (his only Festival entry) I reckon he’s about 50:50 to go to Cheltenham so 20/1 NRNB is better value.