FJ Day Three Yankee - Captain: The King Pimm

[Aldie1988]

The Storyteller in the Pertemps

[The King Pimm]

I think Simply the Betts is too short for the Plate personally, if he had got in the Novice handicap on Tuesday then 8/1 would be a good price but he’s taking on some experienced and talented horses in the Plate so I think 16/1 would be a good price for StB

[charlie]

PadstheFish sent me this last night re Tout Est Permis

Tout Est Permis looked like a rejuvenated horse last year after joining Noel Meades yard following a string of disappointing performances after fences with mouse Morris, winning his first 3 starts over fences for the new yard & seeing his chase mark increase to 157 from 128.

Things didn’t go so well in graded company this season over fences & he reverted to hurdles in December of a mark of 122, coming 3 lengths 2nd behind the jam man (getting 6lb), who is now rated 15lb higher than when they met that day & ran well to come 2nd in the William fry at the DRF franking the form.

Tout Est Permis was raised 5lb on the back of that run & finished 4th next time out in the pertemps qualifier at the Leopardstown xmas festival, travelling beautifully throughout the race & staying on well to regain 4th, finishing 4 lengths behind the winner treacysenniscorthy who won the William Fry at the DRF on his next start.

Tout Est Permis also ran in the William fry, where the bare form of his finishing position 10 lengths 4th behind treacysenniscorthy & the jam man wouldn’t look too great, he was given what looked to be a very reserved ride by flannaghan compared to the 3 finishing in front of him, hopefully not wanting to ruin his mark with this race in mind.

He’s been given an extra 7lb by the handicapper on his Irish mark which seems a bit drastic but he wouldn’t of got in off his Irish mark & this should see him near the tail end of the weights; the handicapper also seems to value the form of the William fry & the Leopardstown qualifier, horses finishing in front of him in both races being given a fair few lb higher than their Irish marks (treacyenniscorthy 4lb higher, column of fire 7lb higher, Ronald pump 6lb higher). Even with his inflated mark from the British handicapper he’s still over a stone well in on his chase mark & looks to have been campaigned with this race as the goal this season.

Case very well made

[The Bunny Boiler]

Kim Muir/ At the Acorn
Plate/Simply the Betts
Pertemps/The Storyteller
Marsh/Allaho
E/W Yankee should return a profit 😀

[The King Pimm]

Sounds very convincing thank you Charlie. We all know Noel Meade doesn’t send many horses over to Cheltenham so needed to be taken seriously when they do.

Thanks BB for your contribution too

[charlie]

Sounds very convincing thank you Charlie. We all know Noel Meade doesn’t send many horses over to Cheltenham so needed to be taken seriously when they do.

Thanks BB for your contribution too

Not my work but cheers! I will forever love The Storyteller and horse truly owes me nothing, but I'll be going with TEP for sure

[Craigy14]

I’ll put forward a couple TKP:

Phoenix Way - Pertemps, if people reckon Relegate is a good shout at the weights then this horse is as well only 3lbs higher and similar prices around. Won after a year off in the grade 2 pertemps qualifier

Colreevy/Lamarckise - Mares Novice, be getting weight from MM and Floressa at the head of the market and although MM beat colreevy lto giving weight I think that could reverse. MM never raced over shorter than 2m2f and we all know mullins just wins the mares novices

[charlie]

I’ll put forward a couple TKP:

Phoenix Way - Pertemps, if people reckon Relegate is a good shout at the weights then this horse is as well only 3lbs higher and similar prices around. Won after a year off in the grade 2 pertemps qualifier

Colreevy/Lamarckise - Mares Novice, be getting weight from MM and Floressa at the head of the market and although MM beat colreevy lto giving weight I think that could reverse. MM never raced over shorter than 2m2f and we all know mullins just wins the mares novices

For me Relegate is one of the first ones to put a line through. Will be smashed off the boards, go off too short a price that's simply unjustified for a horse that jumps like she does. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but i would avoid her

Like the other two

[ComplyOrDie]

For me Relegate is one of the first ones to put a line through. Will be smashed off the boards, go off too short a price that's simply unjustified for a horse that jumps like she does. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but i would avoid her

Like the other two

You'll be pleased to know (I think) Charlie, I'm returning the favour, and agree with you about Relegate

[charlie]

You'll be pleased to know (I think) Charlie, I'm returning the favour, and agree with you about Relegate

I'm delighted mate

[Craigy14]

For me Relegate is one of the first ones to put a line through. Will be smashed off the boards, go off too short a price that's simply unjustified for a horse that jumps like she does. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong but i would avoid her

Like the other two

Completely agree mate, Phoenix Way a much better bet imo

P.s I wasn’t putting a case for Relegate mate

[Middle_Of_March]

I think Simply the Betts is too short for the Plate personally, if he had got in the Novice handicap on Tuesday then 8/1 would be a good price but he’s taking on some experienced and talented horses in the Plate so I think 16/1 would be a good price for StB

16/1?

In what world would we get 16s TKP?

An improving chaser who jumps like a stag. Think 8/1 is a cracking price in all honesty.

[Kevloaf]

TKP...

He would have been top of the Novice Handicap Chase, but he's now not anywhere near top weight in the Brown Plate... so that's why he isn't ever going to be double the price.


It'd be like Le Breuil in the Kim Muir or Ultima.... he's top weight in the former, or potentially getting well over a stone in the latter....

[The King Pimm]

TKP...

He would have been top of the Novice Handicap Chase, but he's now not anywhere near top weight in the Brown Plate... so that's why he isn't ever going to be double the price.

It'd be like Le Breuil in the Kim Muir or Ultima.... he's top weight in the former, or potentially getting well over a stone in the latter....

I get that Kev and think StB is a very good horse with all the skills and attitude to win the this years Plate but to be a single figure Fav with a week to go in a really competitive big field handicap is a bit short? I’m happy to have him in but think there are horses nearly twice the price with as good a chance. That said this race has been won by progressive novice chasers over the past few years like Road to Respect and SDL so yeah maybe StB’s is a worthy fav and the one to have on board??

[Kevloaf]

I get that Kev and think StB is a very good horse with all the skills and attitude to win the this years Plate but to be a single figure Fav with a week to go in a really competitive big field handicap is a bit short? I’m happy to have him in but think there are horses nearly twice the price with as good a chance. That said this race has been won by progressive novice chasers over the past few years like Road to Respect and SDL so yeah maybe StB’s is a worthy fav and the one to have on board??

I'm not rushing to back him at 9/1 myself... but a potentially decent e/w bet would be Imperial Aura the day before and StB? 71/1 NRNB price.

If Imperial Aura 'doesn't' win or place, I'd fancy StB's chances a lot less and he'd still probably be a backable price if I changed my mind.



In general, I'm sure you'd lose money backing single figure ante-post handicap favourites two weeks out though, it's just the ones that shorten and win that stick in the mind which makes FOMO a factor for people