Three Horses That Are Much Too Short

[TigerRolllllll]

Tiger Roll - Taking off the rose tinted specs, he is WAY behind where he was this time last season, and because he's coming back from injury I think this year the big circle on the calender is around the 3rd Grand National, not the poxy prep race at Cheltenham. If he doesn't win the Cross Country as he's still getting towards his peak, then they'll settle for that. He's already a festival legend with a million wins, one more doesn't make a jot of difference to his legacy now, he's elavated himself above that.

He was the same price last year as he is this year (if not shorter?) when he had a perfect prep.... If you forced me to lay a shorty, it'd be him - the public love for him means he's shorter than he should be.


Paisley Park - 8/11 now, Big Bucks was evens every time on the morning. If you lay him now you could back him on the day at a bigger price. Is that cheating?



Close for third between Appreciate shIt and Shitshkin
Both got chances, just able to get 'shit' into their names.



.... am I being serious? Who knows!


I wouldn't like to lay anything at odds on really, no fun in that, but if I had to I'd be looking at these three perhaps?

Place Lay - Captain Guinness
Place Lay - Riders Onthe Storm
Place Lay - Clan Des Obeaux

Maybe my fav horse.....but do agree there are def risks this year with Tiger......still backed him as have done for all his Cheltenham / Aintree wins.....but prob is too short

[TigerRolllllll]

Shishkin.......Henderson always too short for the Novice hurdles and hardly ever wins....better for with Aba and Asterion.....though Aba may not get up hill

Fakir Doidaries - beaten by fav and now does not get weight allowance.....good jumper, but should be double figure price at weights

Tiger....see comments above

[TigerRolllllll]

1 - Shishkin - Looks a superb renewal. Proven Grade 1 novice winners this season at a bigger price than him? Asterion Forlonge double the price? Henderson’s Supreme record is hardly great. Plenty with his profile have come and gone. At 3/1, I can let him win. I couldn’t have him at all at those odds.

2 - Goshen - Everyone knows I think this lad just can’t (obviously he can literally) win. He can’t jump. I’m not having it that this fellas jumping will be better in a race surrounded by top class juveniles. Add to that, it’s probably the best renewal in a very very long time. Massively against him.

3 - Epatante - Terrible race but I can’t get last years mares novices out of my head. She was awful that day. She looked good over Christmas but I still think that surely there will be something that beats her. Surely?

Epaante mess-up with flu injection chaos ......has best RPRs and looked a champ hurdler visually,,,,,,,still feel its right favourite, unless Honeysucke appears

[billymag]

These would be my place lay treble.

Arkle - Brewinupastorm

Interrupted season and inadequate trip. Likely to go a million miles in this and unlikely to have the pace or jumping ability to stay in touch. Will do well to complete.

Ballymore - The Big Getaway

Nice long term prospect but he has just won a very poor novice hurdle. He is a point off a horse who is unbeaten in three hurdles including at graded level. Another trainer and we would be talking a 20/1 shot.

Bumper - Ferny Hollow

Form isn't good enough and looks a complete dodgepot. Hard to believe he is even making the trip.

Have to totally disagree with Ferny hollow he is a cracking bet the run with Forged in Fire could easily turn out to be the best piece of bumper form this side of cheltenham, hes a stonking ew bet, the quicker pace of the bumper is only going to help, 12/1 (with bfsb) is a crazy price

[SuperTiger]

Solo - Impressive at the weekend but the bookies seem to have shit their pants - way too short.
Champ - Awful prep, fell LTO, jumping inconsistent.
Shishkin - Whilst I like his chances, 2/1 on Sky is funny - plenty of potential and talent in it this year and think the bookies are offering awful prices.

[MadeinJapan]

Goshen - Reasons already highlighted above. Form in smaller runner fields & jumping far from slick. Both of those polar opposite from what's needed at the Festival.

Altior - Amazing horse, however at the prices big lay for me. He's up against harder and younger opposition this year than last, Hendo clearly thinks he's lost some of his speed & zest at 2m (hence starting the season off over further), although now has obviously changed tack. Last time out didn't overly impress me & don't think he'll be near enough to CPS or Defi coming round the home turn to pounce late. IMO will be off the bridle a long way out.

Shishkin - More of a personal view this one in that out of principle I never back the favourite for the Supreme. The hurly burly, high speed bustle of the opener is nothing like most of these horses will have experienced. Add to the fact too there are several others who look bang there at the top of the market this year, I'd rather oppose him. As others have alluded to too, Hendo's Supreme record's not great either & his horses are always too short.

[Super Raven]

Santini - no way should he be favourite
Solo - the name says it all in terms of odds
Shishkin - ridiculous price too

[Faugheen_Machine]

Envoi Allen - looks a much deeper race than a couple of months ago.

Epatante - she's short enough for what she achieved at Kempton. I'd imagine she'll drift from her current price, especially if Honeysuckle is a confirmed runner.

Shishkin - far too short and another who will drift on the day.

[Hardy Eustace]

Solo - a dawdling adonis will be very different to the triumph.

Eptanate - only has one piece of form that makes her champion hurdle worthy and should be three times the price.

DDS- will need to be very good to bear Altior and CPS - not for me at 9/4.

[mayo]

Nicky's nightmare

Champ
Epatante
Altior

all too short

[jack1092]

In order of worst value:

Thyme Hill I mentioned it on the thread- 5/1 or 9/2 is pretty short in my book for a horse that has beat the Cashel Man (hardly franking the form) and Champagne Well (beaten consistently since). Even his beating of Fiddler can be looked at negatively, for all he has looked decent since. The horse took a while to win his bumper in Ireland so you possibly he needs a run or two to hit form. That's further backed up by losing next time out again. He also moved yards, and it's probable that they were still learning. You have horses like Monkfish, Latest Exhibition, Cobbers way, Semp and that's just in Ireland as a basis to beat him with.

Champ a close second, and that's only due to the quality and depth in behind. It's likely to be a smaller field and some of his main contenders might swerve. In saying that, Minella Indo to me has stronger 3m form than Champ, and while everyone crabs Indo's for his slow start to chasing (formwise anyway) he did the exact same last year. Champ has an engine, but his form doesn't back the engine up to me that some say he has. His jumping is poor at times and very deliberate. He missed a prep.

Goshen Same reasons as most. He's must have a huge engine though, and that's why he's third on the list.