How do we all (members here) assess/evaluate what ‘value’ is, when placing a bet?

[Spectre]

Oi!
That was my line!!

[Guinness Village]

I appreciate that the perceived value is related to chance of winning vs. odds. However, I believe that returning a profit is actually far more dependent upon staking practice.
There are many times that I have had a single on each race at the festival for example. Had a 12/1 winner and had a loss on the day. Simply because I've got my staking all wrong. I've put less on the bigger priced horses, which has clearly been the wrong way to go.
Now, if I fancy something, I do the reverse. Bigger the price, the more I stick on. I also don't touch anything odds on.
I can't be the only one that's come round to this way of thinking, even before a dozen pints of guinness.

[Quevega]

I appreciate that the perceived value is related to chance of winning vs. odds. However, I believe that returning a profit is actually far more dependent upon staking practice.
There are many times that I have had a single on each race at the festival for example. Had a 12/1 winner and had a loss on the day. Simply because I've got my staking all wrong. I've put less on the bigger priced horses, which has clearly been the wrong way to go.
Now, if I fancy something, I do the reverse. Bigger the price, the more I stick on. I also don't touch anything odds on.
I can't be the only one that's come round to this way of thinking, even before a dozen pints of guinness.

The more the price is "wrong" - the more you should put on.
So when you spot really good value then obviously more points is called for.
Not so much how big the price is as the perceived value.

[Istabraq]

I also don't touch anything odds on.

I read this from many members in here but do you draw the line at evens ?
I know everyone has to have a strategy/system but the difference between 20/21 and evens is 5% and these days you get strange prices appearing like 97/100 and the exchanges of course 1.98, 1.99 and so on.
Personally I’ve never let price alter my punting, if I expect a horse to be around 12/1 and can back them at 20s I will, similarly I’ll happily get stuck into a 2s on shot.
I think if more people bet on sports where e.g a game of cricket generally only has two outcomes, one of which will always be odds on, they may see the benefit and dare I say value in hitting a 4/5 shot…

[Quevega]

I read this from many members in here but do you draw the line at evens ?
I know everyone has to have a strategy/system but the difference between 20/21 and evens is 5% and these days you get strange prices appearing like 97/100 and the exchanges of course 1.98, 1.99 and so on.
Personally I’ve never let price alter my punting, if I expect a horse to be around 12/1 and can back them at 20s I will, similarly I’ll happily get stuck into a 2s on shot.
I think if more people bet on sports where e.g a game of cricket generally only has two outcomes, one of which will always be odds on, they may see the benefit and dare I say value in hitting a 4/5 shot…

Let's face it.

Anyone who has a rule to never bet at odds on is being moronic.
It's as stupid as not betting on anything 100-1 or above.
It makes no sense at all.

[Odin]

I read this from many members in here but do you draw the line at evens ?
I know everyone has to have a strategy/system but the difference between 20/21 and evens is 5% and these days you get strange prices appearing like 97/100 and the exchanges of course 1.98, 1.99 and so on.
Personally I’ve never let price alter my punting, if I expect a horse to be around 12/1 and can back them at 20s I will, similarly I’ll happily get stuck into a 2s on shot.
I think if more people bet on sports where e.g a game of cricket generally only has two outcomes, one of which will always be odds on, they may see the benefit and dare I say value in hitting a 4/5 shot…

From a fun, rather than value, perspective, this is something I've had to grapple with more this season than any other. On my side it's more the cumulative value of winning that is important. I don't get any real thrill out of backing odds on shots, there's more stress involved. I'd much rather have an ew lucky 15 with four 10/1+ shots that all get placed with the possibility a couple of winners could win me a LOT more than backing 4 odds on shots in a Yankee where they have to win. I only bet 5-10 points a weekend and it's always in multiples so this is just an approach for me. The problem is, it's difficult to find four 10/1 shots on the same day with field sizes ATM!

If I had more points that I wanted to stake, you're approach is entirely logical.

[Guinness Village]

For me, punting is an enjoyable hobby. It enhances the race day experience and keeps me going over the dark Winter months with my antepost portfolio.I wouldn't pretend to be a professional by any stretch of the imagination. I don't bet odds on because it just doesn't do it for me. Joining the tote queue for a tenner on a 2/5 fav just seems plain wrong. I'd rather have a piss and another pint. Of course the 4 P's (paddock, piss, punt, pint) are always important for a days racing. I have in the past chased short priced favourites, but the large stake involved to make it worthwhile just became unpleasant. If the horse won, I was just relieved, and if it lost it just ruined my day.
Just a personal perspective.

[opatcho]

Value is fluid, and time relevant.

THIS! Saved me 5 minutes trying to answer the question

[FinalFurlong91]

"I have in the past chased short priced favourites, but the large stake involved to make it worthwhile just became unpleasant. If the horse won, I was just relieved, and if it lost it just ruined my day."

Pretty much this for me

Id rather spread my ?50 or whatever between 5 horses than have it all on one short one

I do better in the long run on 3/1+ shots than shorter (i was surprised just by how much better) and I care a lot less if I lose as I'm having less on per bet

[Quevega]

It’s irrelevant what the stake is.
and giving examples of when or why it’s not wise to bet at odds on is missing the point.
This thread is about value.
if a 4/5 shot should be 1/3 and you don’t want to bet much then don’t.
put the selection in a double.
but it’s a better bet than a 3-1 or 10-1 shot that should be bigger.
so to never entertain odds on shots makes no sense.

it’s one of the problems I have with the roll up thread as many choices involve short priced first legs that are priced badly.
although a couple of the new guys have recently shown a better IMO approach.

[Odin]

I agree with what you're saying Quevega, but reading between the lines of what I, GV and FF have said, for us value in terms of price isn't the only thing that matters (feel free to tell me I'm wrong GV or FF).

Approach 1 is yours, where as I understand it, value is soley determined by the horse's chances and is a completely reasonable and business like approach.

Approach 2 would be ours, where our judgement of value is clouded by the risk involved. I'd argue that this is also a completely reasonable approach, but is very much a leisure-based approach.

So if the answer is how is value determined, our views differ slightly because of the way we approach betting. From the way that GV and FF phrased their posts, they still find value because they still seem to be profitable, it's just a different type of value (ahead of odds + fun) to yours (solely ahead of odds).

Anyone feel free to tell me I've misunderstood either/both views?

Ps - adding a short priced horse to a double has the same jeopardy that others have spoken of to me (relieved if it wins, more annoyed if it doesn't). That said, I've done it on a couple of occasions and wouldn't be afraid to do it again if I felt it was the right bet on the day.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I agree with what you're saying Quevega, but reading between the lines of what I, GV and FF have said, for us value in terms of price isn't the only thing that matters (feel free to tell me I'm wrong GV or FF).

Approach 1 is yours, where as I understand it, value is soley determined by the horse's chances and is a completely reasonable and business like approach.

Approach 2 would be ours, where our judgement of value is clouded by the risk involved. I'd argue that this is also a completely reasonable approach, but is very much a leisure-based approach.

So if the answer is how is value determined, our views differ slightly because of the way we approach betting. From the way that GV and FF phrased their posts, they still find value because they still seem to be profitable, it's just a different type of value (ahead of odds + fun) to yours (solely ahead of odds).

Anyone feel free to tell me I've misunderstood either/both views?

Ps - adding a short priced horse to a double has the same jeopardy that others have spoken of to me (relieved if it wins, more annoyed if it doesn't). That said, I've done it on a couple of occasions and wouldn't be afraid to do it again if I felt it was the right bet on the day.

I think you’re conflating value with enjoyment. I agree with Quevega’s description of value. Enjoyment is completely separate. What I think you’re saying is, you’ve found a nice mid-point between value betting and enjoyment which works for you. This is great for you, however, it shouldn’t be confused with pure value betting. Me personally, I too take less pleasure from a low single figures winner than I do larger priced winner but I’m trying to address that in my betting approach as sometimes this means I miss out on value bets of smaller priced horses.

[FinalFurlong91]

It’s irrelevant what the stake is.
and giving examples of when or why it’s not wise to bet at odds on is missing the point.
This thread is about value.
if a 4/5 shot should be 1/3 and you don’t want to bet much then don’t.
put the selection in a double.
but it’s a better bet than a 3-1 or 10-1 shot that should be bigger.
so to never entertain odds on shots makes no sense.

it’s one of the problems I have with the roll up thread as many choices involve short priced first legs that are priced badly.
although a couple of the new guys have recently shown a better IMO approach.

Happy to watch them win at odds on

[Odin]

What I think you’re saying is, you’ve found a nice mid-point between value betting and enjoyment which works for you. This is great for you, however, it shouldn’t be confused with pure value betting.

Yes, this is it for me. Enjoyment is a key part of my approach, it isn't for others. I have no issue acknowledging both methods as valid for their respective people.

[Lobos]

These days, Racing first then the betting is secondary for me. Wasn't always that way but that's the only way to enjoy it IMO and enjoy it I do.