How do we all (members here) assess/evaluate what ‘value’ is, when placing a bet?

[Saxon Warrior]

I "Enjoy Racing" first and foremost.

Betting is a strong second to that enjoyment.

I have little to no interest in betting on anything else.

When I went to Vegas, I walked through the massive Casinos to 'people watch' each day for a bit.
.....but the only bets I placed were on US Horse Racing sitting in the Casinos Sportsbook section whilst getting Free Beers to keep me from leaving.

Managed to double my money on small bets on a 4 hour "drink, study, bet" bender.


"Value"

The obvious oft-quoted "roll of the dice" or "toss of a coin" known odds, and mathematical assessment doesn't fit Horse Racing at all.

Value on Horse Racing can be twisted into whatever shape you choose to fit your argument.
Its really too abstract to tie down to mathematical probability.

In the end, for Horse Racing.....
"VALUE" is like "LOVE" and “BEAUTY” and is very much in the eye of the beholder.

[Spectre]

"VALUE" is like "LOVE" and “BEAUTY” and is very much in the eye of the beholder.

Yes I agree with this. The 'Love' and ' Beauty' comparison also holds true with the bets you put on in the early hours after a several drinks. You roll over in the morning and your betting slip looks nothing like you remember from the previous night, and you need to cash out! quickly

[charlie]

The complicated thing when it comes to value is it’s utterly subjective. Some took Honeysuckle at 3/1 last month and would argue ‘she went off 11/10 this year and will probably go off 8/11 in 2022, she’s unbeaten, the CH is the target and she will almost certainly go Hattons Grace and ICH - I'm going to learn nothing I don’t already know about her along the way, so 3/1 is value’. Others could counter and say 'how much money would someone have lost backing short priced CH horses ante-post in September over the last 20 years, and thats setting aside the fall she takes, or stone she steps on, or muscle she pulls etc. It’s not a successful long term value strategy’. Both fair points, and perhaps a good example whereby a value bet doesn't always equal a value long term strategy.

Anyone can make the case that 'horse X chance of winning race Y are greater than SP’, but I think the most interesting thing we can discuss is what defines the SP in relation to the information we know now, vs the information we don’t. 10 years ago the horses now priced 4/1 would be 12/1, and they’d almost certainly be bigger prices post race than they are now pre-race. You could place an ante post bet having watched a chase debut or even races over Xmas and secure a decent price based on actual race information, which is by far the most valuable tool we have in finding value. Whats happened nowadays, is the bookies have cut ante-post prices to a point where many punters feel they have to be more pre-emptive and proactive in finding value, or simply not bet at all. In the absense of form we look to trainer, breeding, sectionals, cheltenham form, likely jockey etc etc, and we debate all these points to try and find a plan or bet that either actually has value, or might have value.

Most horses run 2-3 times before Cheltenham, so we dont have many opportunities as punters to learn and react. Whilst you might be able to snag a decent price in running if something is looking particularly good, most bookies suspend markets in-play and cut odds instantly, and with thousands of bets, sophisticated software, infinite amounts of information, the bookies don’t give an inch. I still think there is value to be had, I just think its much harder to find. Generally speaking, when I place an ante post bet, I ask myself ‘does the horse have cheltenhan form, are they a double figure price, do they have a clear target (or am I confident of where they will go), are they trained in Ireland by WPM/GE/HDB, do they have the profile/potential to improve (not old), and are they technically sound/reliable over obstacles '. Whilst there are plenty of other variables to consider, I tend to find these metrics the most important thing in weighing up and finding value, because we are trying to identify the indicators (not from actual race form) that will inform the SP at a later date. Very few horses tick all those boxes (I can only find 3 - see my diary), but those horses to me stink of value.

I do think there is sometimes value to be found in shorter prices. Allaho at 5/1 for the Ryanair I thought was value. When a horse is 7 going on 8, trained by WPM, has superb Cheltenham form, doesn’t stay 3m, has won a race lots of horses win twice, will have one of if not the best jockey and is tactically straightforward, all that has me thinking 5/1 is just about a value short price because we know enough information in the absense of seeing him this season to be confident in his ability. Bob Olinger in the Marsh at 4/1 is at the other end of the spectrum IMO. I love BO, but he’s a novice hurdler going novice chasing, has multiple options, we’ve never seen him jump a fence and that makes 4/1 a lousy price. He’d be double that 8-10 years ago, but thats just the way it is nowadays. FOMO doesn’t make something value, it’s just FOMO.

[Saxon Warrior]

Yes I agree with this. The 'Love' and ' Beauty' comparison also holds true with the bets you put on in the early hours after a several drinks. You roll over in the morning and your betting slip looks nothing like you remember from the previous night, and you need to cash out! quickly

Haha,
One good reason I've stopped drinking alcohol during Covid.

[Leman14]

Yes I agree with this. The 'Love' and ' Beauty' comparison also holds true with the bets you put on in the early hours after a several drinks. You roll over in the morning and your betting slip looks nothing like you remember from the previous night, and you need to cash out! quickly

Love this!

[Supermaster]

I agree that "value" is subjective - isn't that the fun of horseracing and sport in general.

So, for me, value comes in when you think something that not many others are saying.

A good example was Frodon and Real Steel in last year's King George VI chase. These were the two Nicholls' outsiders for the race at about the same price and given Nicholls record in the race any of his runners needed to be considered seriously, There was an obvious question mark about Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux had had a hard race at Haydock. To my mind it was obvious that Frodon had much stronger form claims than Real Steel yet it was about the same price. Frodon had already won over 3m at Cheltenham had won a grade one and we know is a very good jumper of fences. For me Real Steel was all about possible potential but Frodon had the top class form in the book so 20/1 SP seemed good value, since I wasn't aware that any of the established experts were making this argument - maybe there were some but I didn't know of it.

[archie]

Does anyone have a bet (with real money) that they don't think is 'value'?

[FinalFurlong91]

Does anyone have a bet (with real money) that they don't think is 'value'?

Only value if it wins apparently

[Outlaw]

Does anyone have a bet (with real money) that they don't think is 'value'?

Yes 1000's, they get referred to as addicts.

[Istabraq]

Yes 1000's, they get referred to as addicts.

Something that is rarely touched on in here is that sometimes, due to account closures/restrictions, you have to take a price that is worse value than it is with other bookmakers.
Strictly speaking when you do this you aren’t getting all the available value but if your options are limited and you like a horse/bet then you’re forced into it…

[Outlaw]

Something that is rarely touched on in here is that sometimes, due to account closures/restrictions, you have to take a price that is worse value than it is with other bookmakers.
Strictly speaking when you do this you aren’t getting all the available value but if your options are limited and you like a horse/bet then you’re forced into it…

I was Jesting, but in reply to ^ yes it’s frustrating to not get too price on something when you can’t get on with a firm. That’s why plenty of us do tissues or perceived prices as even if your not taking the top price if anything available is above your tissue it’s still worth taking yes.

[Quevega]

I agree that "value" is subjective - isn't that the fun of horseracing and sport in general.

So, for me, value comes in when you think something that not many others are saying.

A good example was Frodon and Real Steel in last year's King George VI chase. These were the two Nicholls' outsiders for the race at about the same price and given Nicholls record in the race any of his runners needed to be considered seriously, There was an obvious question mark about Cyrname and Clan des Obeaux had had a hard race at Haydock. To my mind it was obvious that Frodon had much stronger form claims than Real Steel yet it was about the same price. Frodon had already won over 3m at Cheltenham had won a grade one and we know is a very good jumper of fences. For me Real Steel was all about possible potential but Frodon had the top class form in the book so 20/1 SP seemed good value, since I wasn't aware that any of the established experts were making this argument - maybe there were some but I didn't know of it.

So much wrong with this. I don’t know where to start.
So I won’t.

[Supermaster]

So much wrong with this. I don’t know where to start.
So I won’t.

The "for me" was important - we are all entitled to have an opinion: they may differ.

[Kevloaf]

Frankel was value at 1/20 in this race:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/21/goodwood/2012-08-01/555673

[Quevega]

Frankel was value at 1/20 in this race:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/21/goodwood/2012-08-01/555673

For you !