September FJ Yankee

[Eggs]

…Eklat de Rire 66-1 highlighted by a number of posters for the Gold Cup.

[Johnoman66]

I am trying to find big priced winners a long way out that start at much shorter prices.

Getting 1/5 odds for 2nd or 3rd rarely floats my boat and inspires me to pay for another bet for those two places.

For the Grand National and 5 places already available, I do make an exception.

On some other races at 40/1, 50/1, 66/1 I have started recently (only on some of them), backing the 'place' to make me breakeven on the horse, overall, if it came 2nd or 3rd.
But Not a full each way bet.

So for a 1pt win at 50/1
If I want my money back for the horse finishing 2nd or 3rd, I do consider covering that win stake with 0.1pt on the place at 50/1 @ 1/5th odds = 10/1 place.

That gives 1.1pt return if 2nd or 3rd
For 1.1pt total stakes.

Much more efficient use of my money in my opinion, as I'm not looking to back placed horses - just winners.

Backing for winners means I can back double the number of antepost longshots win only - rather than half that number each-way.

By a similar premise, I would rather have 2 'win only' horses running for me in a race at Cheltenham than one horse each way (for the same total stake)

My betting is more about backing my judgement and finding winners.

I don't feel enough satisfaction finding placed horses. (some, but not enough).

Do all bookies offer a place bet as against each way? Always feel like I'm losing out when I back each way as I would probably half my win stake. Obviously some people rather this approach

[Eggs]

Do all bookies offer a place bet as against each way? Always feel like I'm losing out when I back each way as I would probably half my win stake. Obviously some people rather this approach

….not sure if those that do allow multiples.

[Saxon Warrior]

Do all bookies offer a place bet as against each way? Always feel like I'm losing out when I back each way as I would probably half my win stake. Obviously some people rather this approach

No they don't

So have TWO separate bets, one after the other, at the same visit to the betting site.

0.9pts Win Only

then 0.1pts Each Way.

Result
1pt Win,
0.1pt Place

[Spectre]

I back each way and often lay the win part on the exchange. Antepost this often has the benefit of locking in a profit whilst still having the place running and I have the stake on the place that I wanted in the first place.

[Saxon Warrior]

I back each way and often lay the win part on the exchange. Antepost this often has the benefit of locking in a profit whilst still having the place running and I have the stake on the place that I wanted in the first place.

How low would the exchange price have to go before doing that Spectre ?

Say, on a 33/1 shot.

[Spectre]

Lower than the odds I backed at is the simple answer, but I tend to play the bet on an individual basis depending on horse and situation.

If you've never calculated these before SW have a play around with this tool which is my 'not having to think about it' go to. Put it in advanced mode:

https://www.oddsmonkey.com/Tools/Calculator.aspx

[Saxon Warrior]

Lower than the odds I backed at is the simple answer, but I tend to play the bet on an individual basis depending on horse and situation.

If you've never calculated these before SW have a play around with this tool which is my 'not having to think about it' go to. Put it in advanced mode:

https://www.oddsmonkey.com/Tools/Calculator.aspx

Thanks for that.

So you Lay off your bet at closer to the price you backed it at (33/1 to 25/1), if you dont fancy the horse as much to win now?

You Lay off your bet that have now dropped to a much lower price (33/1 to 5/1) to lock in a sizeable profit or to have a stake-free bet to nothing?

[Spectre]

That's it in a nutshell SW.

Nearer to the Festival it's far more tactical and based on the overall position of each book, but earlier it's about how I feel about the chances of a horse in the context of how I think the market will develop. Each horse is unique itself and operating it's own unique market. Predicting the market and after before, during and after each mini-event across the season is the key.

The experience of doing it for many years helps. I pretty much know when to be watching and/or acting. Sure there are some curve balls along the way and I'll get burnt sometimes, but I both expect and accept that as part of my strategy.

[Saxon Warrior]

That's it in a nutshell SW.

Nearer to the Festival it's far more tactical and based on the overall position of each book, but earlier it's about how I feel about the chances of a horse in the context of how I think the market will develop. Each horse is unique itself and operating it's own unique market. Predicting the market and after before, during and after each mini-event across the season is the key.

The experience of doing it for many years helps. I pretty much know when to be watching and/or acting. Sure there are some curve balls along the way and I'll get burnt sometimes, but I both expect and accept that as part of my strategy.

and with Cashout on a lot, then theres always that as fallback too.

With larger priced Laying on Betfair you would need a big pot of cash to accommodate potential payouts if you have 50 or more horses laid.

But know you're getting it all back.

[Ice]

…Eklat de Rire 66-1 highlighted by a number of posters for the Gold Cup.

I've followed the knowledgeable guys in with him so a good shout for the lucky in my book.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

That's it in a nutshell SW.

Nearer to the Festival it's far more tactical and based on the overall position of each book, but earlier it's about how I feel about the chances of a horse in the context of how I think the market will develop. Each horse is unique itself and operating it's own unique market. Predicting the market and after before, during and after each mini-event across the season is the key.

The experience of doing it for many years helps. I pretty much know when to be watching and/or acting. Sure there are some curve balls along the way and I'll get burnt sometimes, but I both expect and accept that as part of my strategy.

I've been toying with the idea of opening a Betfair account and have a go at laying some bets to guarantee profit but to be honest I'm a bit scared
Daft question but will opening a 'standard' account with Betfair allow backing and laying on the exchanges and also what commission do you get charged on each back and each lay trade? Sorry for the naive questions but it's all new to me.

[Istabraq]

I've been toying with the idea of opening a Betfair account and have a go at laying some bets to guarantee profit but to be honest I'm a bit scared
Daft question but will opening a 'standard' account with Betfair allow backing and laying on the exchanges and also what commission do you get charged on each back and each lay trade? Sorry for the naive questions but it's all new to me.

If your intention is to trade a book to ensure a profit then you would be a fool not to have an exchange account.
Betfair standard terms are 2% on winning trades, there are other higher commission terms available if you want free football accas etc.
Word of warning, betfair’s festival markets are extremely quiet until the New Year, you are unlikely to be able to snare a 20/1 voucher and lay the horse at 16 on the exchange at this time of year, remember too your betfair account will need to have sufficient funds to accommodate a lay/lays….

[Spectre]

and with Cashout on a lot, then theres always that as fallback too.

With larger priced Laying on Betfair you would need a big pot of cash to accommodate potential payouts if you have 50 or more horses laid.

But know you're getting it all back.

This is absolutely right. My overall pot for antepost punting and laying is completely dictated by how successful the previous season was. Post-Festival I re-check and allocate funds separately to each for the following season, although as you'd expect this tends to happen fairly organically. Also perhaps worth noting that I never add to my pot from other funds. By taking that approach it forces me to think about my decisions, and I therefore don't back or lay on whim.

I'm naturally risk-averse so this approach suits my mentality. It won't suit others though. We're all different and we have to find what suits us best individually.

[Spectre]

If your intention is to trade a book to ensure a profit then you would be a fool not to have an exchange account.
Betfair standard terms are 2% on winning trades, there are other higher commission terms available if you want free football accas etc.
Word of warning, betfair’s festival markets are extremely quiet until the New Year, you are unlikely to be able to snare a 20/1 voucher and lay the horse at 16 on the exchange at this time of year, remember too your betfair account will need to have sufficient funds to accommodate a lay/lays….

I would also endorse this. You need to have sufficient funds in the exchange to accommodate the strategy, and that means potentially tying up large sums for long periods of time.

One other point I'd make, which is more caution on my behalf, the overwhelming majority of my singles bets are with 365, even if they're not best odds. Two reasons:

1. If I want to get out of a bet and I can't on the exchange, because a horse is either not quoted or hasn't moved, I still can

2. The Betfair Exchange, Sportsbook, Paddy Power, and Skybet are all owned by the same group, and backing in one and laying in the other is potentially a very quick way of getting those three accounts closed.