September FJ Yankee

[Spectre]

I'd be too worried about her making it there after such a long layoff.

The name escapes me, but wat was Gordon's highly rated novice hurdler that came out after injury and didn't make the winter season?

[taylorch1990]

I'd be too worried about her making it there after such a long layoff.

The name escapes me, but wat was Gordon's highly rated novice hurdler that came out after injury and didn't make the winter season?

You thinking of Malone Road? The Cheveley horse who was thought of as highly as Envoi Allen?

[Istabraq]

So presumably a yankee of four 33/1+ Shots we’re just doing the ew doubles ?
The trebles and acca blow the max payout for most surely and sticking to doubles means less bets so the potential for higher stakes ?

[Spectre]

You thinking of Malone Road? The Cheveley horse who was thought of as highly as Envoi Allen?

That's the one, thankyou. The perils of long term injury returners.

[Eudipe]

Four longish shots plus some alternatives...

Blue Lord / Third Time Lucki - Arkle Challenge Trophy
Blue Lord obviously has higher profile stablemates in the frame here and there is some uncertainty where each of them might end up but I would be happy to take a punt (at 25s/33s generally). His performance in the Supreme (until he fell) said Arkle to me... in a race run at a furious gallop he attacked the hurdles like a chaser and travelled as strong as anything until just before two out from which point Appreciate It slowed marginally ridden out up the hill (credit to ATR Sectional Spotlight analysis) whilst the rest of the field fell in a hole. A longer priced alternative might be Third Time Lucki (at 50s). His bumper form was very good, particularly at Cheltenham behind Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It. He had a mixed season novice hurdling and while I accept he would be upwards of a stone behind the best in that sphere I do think he will improve for a fence and outside of stablemate My Drogo (who I think will step up for the Marsh) and perhaps Monmiral (aftertiming alert - who I did cover for this pre-Aintree) I could see Third Time Lucki being a leading British 2m novice chaser.

Ahoy Senor - Festival Novices' Chase
Another race in which it is hard to be certain of the target for some (including those for Mullins, Elliot, Cromwell & Morris!). First off, I've been very taken with Bravemansgame since his debut 2nd over hurdles and I expect him to make up into a high-class chaser in this division. I do wonder whether those two commanding wins at Newbury left their mark on him in the spring but that is not to decry Ahoy Senor's performance in the Sefton where he took apart a solid field. A well-made former winning point-to-pointer with high class novice hurdle form in the book, a fluent jumper with a willing attitude... what's not to like (at 33s/40s)? (Could just have said I concur with the general consensus on this thread!)

Brandy Love / Party Central - Mares' Novice Hurdle
Beware the new French recruits here! I'm really just going on what I reckon are the best prospects from last season's bumpers here. I do rate Elle Est Belle as a worthy favourite on that basis, her performance at Cheltenham in particular, held up off a slow gallop was very good. Grangee ties in the Irish form nicely, from which lines I prefer her stablemate Brandy Love and also Part Central. A well made mare, Brandy Love came with a big reputation apparently showing plenty of gears to win her point-to-point and neither Patrick nor Willie tried to dampen the hype after her bloodless debut win under rules. She was a shade disappointing at the DRF and not seen since I suspect she has more to offer (at 25s). Party Central (Elliott/Foster) split the Mullins pair at the DRF. A half-sister to useful hurdler Craigneche she has already been described as a brilliant jumper by Foster and rates a solid option (at 25s/33s).

Stage Star / Hollow Games / O'Toole - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
I'm looking for what I judge to have copper-bottomed stamina and a tractable nature. A trio of smart bumper winners to go to war with... Stage Star upstaged twice by speedier stablemate Knappers Hill, finished a good third in the Aintree bumper. He has been photographed schooling at Ditcheat recently and I expect him to come into his own stepped up to this sort of trip (at 33s). Hollow Games looked a classy dual bumper winner and a staying chaser in the making, he also looks to have a preference for soft ground. Of the three of these I would have least confidence in his pedigree for the trip but the way he relaxes should give him every chance to stay (at 33s). O'Toole was probably the best of these in bumpers, a facile debut success was backed up by a staying on second splitting Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard in a strongly run Punchestown Champion Bumper which was arguably the best bumper of the season. On breeding (by my own rudimentary analysis) and run style he looks certain to be suited by staying distances, I hope connections take this route (at 33s).

[charlie]

I'd throw in Ramillies for the Albert Bartlett if we're looking for horses priced 33/1+. There is definitely a talented horse in there, I just don't think he's anywhere near quick enough for 2m, or even 2m5f. He cost ?215k and WPM seems to rate him very highly. He's by Shantou so I think will want 3m - he looks like a stayer in the making and I can't envisage him ever being a Supreme or Ballymore bound, which leaves the AB.

[Lobos]

I'd throw in Ramillies for the Albert Bartlett if we're looking for horses priced 33/1+. There is definitely a talented horse in there, I just don't think he's anywhere near quick enough for 2m, or even 2m5f. He cost ?215k and WPM seems to rate him very highly. He's by Shantou so I think will want 3m - he looks like a stayer in the making and I can't envisage him ever being a Supreme or Ballymore bound, which leaves the AB.

He has to come good doesn't he ? His first run last season he looked a proper star. Worth a punt. TWAR horse maybe ??

[Lobos]

I'd be too worried about her making it there after such a long layoff.

The name escapes me, but wat was Gordon's highly rated novice hurdler that came out after injury and didn't make the winter season?

She's already made a winning comeback beating this season's early top Novice Mare giving weight. I get the concern re not making the gig but that's the same with every horse at this stage. 20's with cash out as well.

[charlie]

He has to come good doesn't he ? His first run last season he looked a proper star. Worth a punt. TWAR horse maybe ??

My issue with his TWAR price is he's 16/1 and I think its obvious all roads lead AB, if he makes Cheltenham. Half the TWAR price doesn't appeal to me, even more so when WPM looks loaded with options for Supreme/Ballymore.

[Kautostar]

My issue with his TWAR price is he's 16/1 and I think its obvious all roads lead AB, if he makes Cheltenham. Half the TWAR price doesn't appeal to me, even more so when WPM looks loaded with options for Supreme/Ballymore.

Could be their pipe horse if he slips under the radar

[Middle_Of_March]

Little update folks - have thought about it and though it’ll be devilishly difficult to eventually choose four on what I expect will be a very active thread for this month with a lot of new names thrown about, I’ll definitely go for the long shot theme. I know I said 33s but if there’s a horse at say 20s that someone feels is well worth including and makes a good argument, don’t let the fact it’s not 33/1 stop you.

Thisll be a good month to land it even if it’s mostly the doubles for many of us and a few pence on the crazy priced accumulator. Imagine the scenes if day 30 of us on the Friday are waiting for a maximum payout. I can already see us all being interviewed on The Opening Show on ITV as if we’re pulling off a coup or something haha.

[Ice]

Little update folks - have thought about it and though it’ll be devilishly difficult to eventually choose four on what I expect will be a very active thread for this month with a lot of new names thrown about, I’ll definitely go for the long shot theme. I know I said 33s but if there’s a horse at say 20s that someone feels is well worth including and makes a good argument, don’t let the fact it’s not 33/1 stop you.

Thisll be a good month to land it even if it’s mostly the doubles for many of us and a few pence on the crazy priced accumulator. Imagine the scenes if day 30 of us on the Friday are waiting for a maximum payout. I can already see us all being interviewed on The Opening Show on ITV as if we’re pulling off a coup or something haha.

I'm happy to be interviewed by francesca or leona !

[Eggs]

….thought the ‘Nap, Lay e/w’ thread might be a useful source for selections. These seemed popular;


Journey with Me (AB) 25-1
O’Toole (AB) 33-1
Gerri Colombe (Bally) 40-1
Ahoy Senior (BANC) 40-1
Gallyhill (BANC) 50-1
Letsbeclearaboutit (AB) 33-1
I am Maximus (Sup) 20-1
Aspire Tower (Stayers) 40-1
Gypsy Island (MNH) 20-1
American Mike (CB) 25-1

[That Horse]

….thought the ‘Nap, Lay e/w’ thread might be a useful source for selections. These seemed popular;


Journey with Me (AB) 25-1
O’Toole (AB) 33-1
Gerri Colombe (Bally) 40-1
Ahoy Senior (BANC) 40-1
Gallyhill (BANC) 50-1
Letsbeclearaboutit (AB) 33-1
I am Maximus (Sup) 20-1
Aspire Tower (Stayers) 40-1
Gypsy Island (MNH) 20-1
American Mike (CB) 25-1

Could we say that Gypsy Island and I am Maximus are more secure in their race targets of mare's novice and supreme than the others?

[Dandrew99]

Given the price collapse of IAM I don't think he is worth including any more