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Owner / Trainer / Jockey - Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2019

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  • #1

    Owner / Trainer / Jockey - Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2019

    As per the thread that has resurfaced, last year I did a 2008 – 2018 handicap number analysis for a number of Owners (JP & Gigginstown), Trainers (Pipe, Henderson, Nicholls, Jonjo, Willie, Venetia) and Jockeys (Barry, RJ & Davy), based on the following 10 handicaps:

    Tuesday - Ultima
    Tuesday - Close Brothers
    Wednesday – Coral Cup
    Wednesday – Boodles
    Thursday – Pertemps
    Thursday – Brown Advisory
    Thursday – Kim Muir
    Friday – County Hurdle
    Friday – Grand Annual
    Friday – Martin Pipe

    I can’t do as many of these as I would like (certainly in Jan and most of Feb) as they are time consuming to say the least, but plan to add more after the weights are released to home in on specific horses (I think that's around the 28th Feb).

    I'll add all the updated numbers to include 2019 shortly, with a brief summary of the conclusions drawn pre 2019 with a view to how we fared vs those conclusions. Below is a one-line summary (if you don’t want to read all of what comes next)

    One Line Conclusions

    JP – 3/18, brilliant 2019, but all found in market (single figures) and most horses over bet. Loss over time
    Gigginstown – Bad year, but still very profitable to follow off levels over last 11 years (Martin Pipe kings)
    David Pipe – 0/2, couldn’t believe it was that low. Loss over time
    Paul Nicholls – 0/11. 83% of winners come from the 4 races (targets big time). Small profit over time.
    Jonjo – 0/4 runners, nothing to say. Loss over time
    Willie – 0/16. 60% of his runners in coral cup or county hurdle! Chase win still eludes him.
    Venetia – 0/6. She targeted Brown Advisory as per, and that was her best finish (5th)
    Barry – 1/7 rides, typically well found in the market and big loss over time (incredible ride on SDB)
    Richard J – 0/3 all for Hobbs, really quiet year (maybe targeting bigger races? Even more so this year?)
    Davy – 0/5 winners and year to forget (10th, PU, PU, 19th, PU). Huge profit off levels backing all his though

    So the questions that naturally follow from the above are:

    What do Gigginstown have for the Martin Pipe?
    What does Paul have for the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual?
    What does Willie have for the Coral Cup & County Hurdle?
    What does Venetia have for the Brown Advisory?
    Having won/placed in 40% of handicaps what will Davy ride (especially for Gordon & A J Martin)?
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Willie Mullins & The Coral Cup

    I wouldn’t normally look at a handicap with a view to a specific trainer, but as you will see from the numbers below, the Coral Cup is one of three handicap hurdles that WPM specifically targets (chase win still eludes him).

    Between 2008 – 2019 Willie Mullins has had 32 runners in the Coral Cup which is more than the Ultima, Northern Trust, Plate, Boodles, Pertemps, Kim Muir & Grand Annual combined.

    He has 15% of Coral Cup entries this year and accounted for 25% of the runners last year. In comparison to the other races he specifically targets (see below), his strike rate is markedly worse in the Coral Cup, which I expect to be slowly ‘corrected' over time.

    Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Coral Cup strike rate (Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3)

    Martin Pipe – 20 / 3 / 2 / 1 - 15% strike rate (3 winners average SP 8/1)
    County Hurdle – 30 / 4 / 1 / 3 - 14% strike rate (4 winners average SP 20/1)
    Coral Cup – 32 / 1 / 3 / 1 - 3% strike rate (1 winner Bleu Berry @ 20/1)

    WPM Coral Cup Runners / Position 2005 - 2019

    2005 - 0
    2006 - 0
    2007 – 1 (5th)
    2008 - 0
    2009 - 0
    2010 – 2 (12th, UR)
    2011 – 2 (11th, 17th)
    2012 – 1 (11th)
    2013 – 3 (3rd, 18th, 20th)
    2014 – 2 (4th, PU)
    2015 – 2 (8th, 21st)
    2016 – 4 (4th, 9th, 10th, PU)
    2017 – 5 (8th, 18th, 20th, 21st, PU)
    2018 – 5 (1st, 14th, 21st, 22nd, PU)
    2019 – 6 (2nd, 7th, 8th, 14th, 16th, 19th)

    The above trend is clear. He was 1st in 2018, 2nd in 2019 and I'd like to think if he wins it this year we can find which one it will be in here

    2020 WPM Coral Cup Entries

    Bachasson
    Canardier
    Ciel De Neige
    Concertista
    Drury
    Eglantine du Seuil
    Elfile
    Fan de Blues
    Foveros
    Francin
    Franco de Port
    Great White Shark
    Janidil
    Killultagh Vic
    Mister Blue Sky
    My Sister Sarah
    Saglawy
    Saint Roi
    Sayo
    Stratum
    Tiger Tap Tap

    GaultStats

    Rated 143+
    Carrying at least 11st
    > 9 hurdle runs
    Age 7 or under
    Won 2m 1f - 2m 6f
    Run 4 times or less this season

    Conclusion

    I am going to wait until the weights come out on the 25th and then analyse each of his potential runners. Feedback from the forum on what goes where would be useful too so we can start putting lines through runners and cutting that list down.

    The winning SP’s from 2005 to 2019 were 28/1 , 20/1 , 16/1 , 12/1 , 9/1 , 14/1 , 33/1, 16/1, 16/1 , 14/1, 14/1, 7/1, 10/1, 11/1, 33/1

    Based on recent years I expect Willie to send 5+ runners here, and if we can narrow down to a shortlist of 2 or 3 then we should be able to get decent prices about horses running in a race that one the best trainers targets! Worse positions to be in right

    Comment

    • #3
      Originally posted by charlie View Post
      Willie Mullins & The Coral Cup

      I wouldn’t normally look at a handicap with a view to a specific trainer, but as you will see from the numbers below, the Coral Cup is one of three handicap hurdles that WPM specifically targets (chase win still eludes him).

      Between 2008 – 2019 Willie Mullins has had 32 runners in the Coral Cup which is more than the Ultima, Northern Trust, Plate, Boodles, Pertemps, Kim Muir & Grand Annual combined.

      He has 15% of Coral Cup entries this year and accounted for 25% of the runners last year. In comparison to the other races he specifically targets (see below), his strike rate is markedly worse in the Coral Cup, which I expect to be slowly ‘corrected' over time.

      Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Coral Cup strike rate (Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3)

      Martin Pipe – 20 / 3 / 2 / 1 - 15% strike rate (3 winners average SP 8/1)
      County Hurdle – 30 / 4 / 1 / 3 - 14% strike rate (4 winners average SP 20/1)
      Coral Cup – 32 / 1 / 3 / 1 - 3% strike rate (1 winner Bleu Berry @ 20/1)

      WPM Coral Cup Runners / Position 2005 - 2019

      2005 - 0
      2006 - 0
      2007 – 1 (5th)
      2008 - 0
      2009 - 0
      2010 – 2 (12th, UR)
      2011 – 2 (11th, 17th)
      2012 – 1 (11th)
      2013 – 3 (3rd, 18th, 20th)
      2014 – 2 (4th, PU)
      2015 – 2 (8th, 21st)
      2016 – 4 (4th, 9th, 10th, PU)
      2017 – 5 (8th, 18th, 20th, 21st, PU)
      2018 – 5 (1st, 14th, 21st, 22nd, PU)
      2019 – 6 (2nd, 7th, 8th, 14th, 16th, 19th)

      The above trend is clear. He was 1st in 2018, 2nd in 2019 and I'd like to think if he wins it this year we can find which one it will be in here

      2020 WPM Coral Cup Entries

      Bachasson
      Canardier
      Ciel De Neige
      Concertista
      Drury
      Eglantine du Seuil
      Elfile
      Fan de Blues
      Foveros
      Francin
      Franco de Port
      Great White Shark
      Janidil
      Killultagh Vic
      Mister Blue Sky
      My Sister Sarah
      Saglawy
      Saint Roi
      Sayo
      Stratum
      Tiger Tap Tap

      GaultStats

      Rated 143+
      Carrying at least 11st
      > 9 hurdle runs
      Age 7 or under
      Won 2m 1f - 2m 6f
      Run 4 times or less this season

      Conclusion

      I am going to wait until the weights come out on the 25th and then analyse each of his potential runners. Feedback from the forum on what goes where would be useful too so we can start putting lines through runners and cutting that list down.

      The winning SP’s from 2005 to 2019 were 28/1 , 20/1 , 16/1 , 12/1 , 9/1 , 14/1 , 33/1, 16/1, 16/1 , 14/1, 14/1, 7/1, 10/1, 11/1, 33/1

      Based on recent years I expect Willie to send 5+ runners here, and if we can narrow down to a shortlist of 2 or 3 then we should be able to get decent prices about horses running in a race that one the best trainers targets! Worse positions to be in right
      Nice post Charlie, like that a lot....can see Canardier gathering momentum once preview evenings & the media start talking about the trainer upgrade etc - I’ve got him in my book early based on that theory

      Comment

      • #4
        Good stuff Charlie.

        With the exception of weights, I have found the following using Gault Stats and your list above:

        Bachasson - Misses out on age stat only
        Canardier - Misses out on age stat only
        Ciel De Neige - Misses out on rating, never won and less than 9 hurdle runs
        Concertista - Misses out on rating, never won over hurdles and less than 9 hurdle runs
        Drury - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs, and more than 4 runs this season
        Eglantine du Seuil - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
        Elfile - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
        Fan de Blues - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
        Foveros - Misses out on rating and less than 9 hurdle runs
        Francin - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
        Franco de Port - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
        Great White Shark - Misses out on rating and number of runs this season
        Janidil - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
        Killultagh Vic - Misses out on age only
        Mister Blue Sky - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
        My Sister Sarah - Misses out on rating only
        Saglawy - Misses out on not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f and run more than 4 times this season
        Saint Roi - Misses out on having less than 9 hurdle runs and no win between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
        Sayo - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and run more than 4 times this season
        Stratum - Misses out on more than 4 runs this season (includes flat)
        Tiger Tap Tap - Misses out on rating & less than 9 hurdle runs

        If you were using Gault Stats religiously, you'd not be backing a Mullins runner in the Coral Cup based on them, and them alone, however, this is definitely no sure fire way to go and a few stats will likely hold up a lot stronger than others, for example, the age stat, 7 or under is great, but two of the last four winners were aged 8 & 9, and since the turn of the millenium there have been just as many 7-9 year old winners as there has been 5-6 year olds.

        I haven't got time to go through every stat a great deal now but will try and look in to them over the weekend or early next week.

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
          Good stuff Charlie.

          With the exception of weights, I have found the following using Gault Stats and your list above:

          Bachasson - Misses out on age stat only
          Canardier - Misses out on age stat only
          Ciel De Neige - Misses out on rating, never won and less than 9 hurdle runs
          Concertista - Misses out on rating, never won over hurdles and less than 9 hurdle runs
          Drury - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs, and more than 4 runs this season
          Eglantine du Seuil - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
          Elfile - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
          Fan de Blues - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
          Foveros - Misses out on rating and less than 9 hurdle runs
          Francin - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
          Franco de Port - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
          Great White Shark - Misses out on rating and number of runs this season
          Janidil - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
          Killultagh Vic - Misses out on age only
          Mister Blue Sky - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
          My Sister Sarah - Misses out on rating only
          Saglawy - Misses out on not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f and run more than 4 times this season
          Saint Roi - Misses out on having less than 9 hurdle runs and no win between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
          Sayo - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and run more than 4 times this season
          Stratum - Misses out on more than 4 runs this season (includes flat)
          Tiger Tap Tap - Misses out on rating & less than 9 hurdle runs

          If you were using Gault Stats religiously, you'd not be backing a Mullins runner in the Coral Cup based on them, and them alone, however, this is definitely no sure fire way to go and a few stats will likely hold up a lot stronger than others, for example, the age stat, 7 or under is great, but two of the last four winners were aged 8 & 9, and since the turn of the millenium there have been just as many 7-9 year old winners as there has been 5-6 year olds.

          I haven't got time to go through every stat a great deal now but will try and look in to them over the weekend or early next week.
          Excellent! Thanks COD. That gives me a running start when the weights come out.

          You are right though, you'd not be backing a Mullins runner in the Coral Cup if you followed stats religiously, I just think the trends in more recent years add more weight and value on including him in the equation.

          See, we can be a good team when the Goshen v Allmankind gloves come off

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by charlie View Post

            See, we can be a good team when the Goshen v Allmankind gloves come off

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              Good stuff Charlie.

              With the exception of weights, I have found the following using Gault Stats and your list above:

              Bachasson - Misses out on age stat only
              Canardier - Misses out on age stat only
              Ciel De Neige - Misses out on rating, never won and less than 9 hurdle runs
              Concertista - Misses out on rating, never won over hurdles and less than 9 hurdle runs
              Drury - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs, and more than 4 runs this season
              Eglantine du Seuil - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
              Elfile - Misses out on running less than 9 times over hurdles
              Fan de Blues - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
              Foveros - Misses out on rating and less than 9 hurdle runs
              Francin - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
              Franco de Port - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
              Great White Shark - Misses out on rating and number of runs this season
              Janidil - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
              Killultagh Vic - Misses out on age only
              Mister Blue Sky - Misses out on rating, less than 9 hurdle runs and not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f
              My Sister Sarah - Misses out on rating only
              Saglawy - Misses out on not won between 2m 1f & 2m 6f and run more than 4 times this season
              Saint Roi - Misses out on having less than 9 hurdle runs and no win between 2m 1f & 2m 6f - No official rating yet
              Sayo - Misses out on less than 9 hurdle runs, and run more than 4 times this season
              Stratum - Misses out on more than 4 runs this season (includes flat)
              Tiger Tap Tap - Misses out on rating & less than 9 hurdle runs

              If you were using Gault Stats religiously, you'd not be backing a Mullins runner in the Coral Cup based on them, and them alone, however, this is definitely no sure fire way to go and a few stats will likely hold up a lot stronger than others, for example, the age stat, 7 or under is great, but two of the last four winners were aged 8 & 9, and since the turn of the millenium there have been just as many 7-9 year old winners as there has been 5-6 year olds.

              I haven't got time to go through every stat a great deal now but will try and look in to them over the weekend or early next week.
              But one of the key GaultStats trends is that Willie Mullins DGAF about trends.

              So they all meet the trend of Mullins having a winner that breaks trends

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by robith View Post
                But one of the key GaultStats trends is that Willie Mullins DGAF about trends.

                So they all meet the trend of Mullins having a winner that breaks trends
                I'd broaden that and say pretty much every trainer DGAF about trends, only us punters, as human nature we love to find patterns.

                It is one reason why I quickly looked at the age stat and can see it means very little.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Ultima / GaulStats

                  Aged 8 or younger
                  Run at a previous Festival.
                  Not Irish trained
                  Rated at least 142
                  Recorded best RPR over 3m+.

                  91 become 8 (presumably BP will split his so more like 7)

                  Brave Eagle (157) Nicky Henderson (2018 13th Martin Pipe)
                  Crievehill (154) Nigel Twiston-Davies (2019 4th Kim Muir)
                  Kildisart (151) Ben Pauling (2019 4th JLT)
                  Le Breuil (145) Ben Pauling (2019 1st NHC)
                  Mister Malarky (147) Colin Tizzard (2019 4th RSA)
                  Now McGinty (147) Stuart Edmunds (2019 8th RSA)
                  Talkischeap (157) Alan King (2018 PU AB)
                  Vinndication (I59) Kim Bailey (2019 5th JLT)
                  (I’ve taken out Mulcahys Hill because he is PU & F at the Festival and I don’t like Warren Greatrex)

                  Henderson, Tizzard and King are the only trainers listed about to have won this in the last 10 years.

                  Added Mister Malarky @ 33/1 before his run today. I liked his run in the RSA last year and I expect today's run to be a prep for this. Coincidentally, Colin ran Golden Chieftain on 22nd Feb before winning this back in 2013, and I like MM's overall profile.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by charlie View Post
                    Ultima / GaulStats

                    Aged 8 or younger
                    Run at a previous Festival.
                    Not Irish trained
                    Rated at least 142
                    Recorded best RPR over 3m+.

                    91 become 8 (presumably BP will split his so more like 7)

                    Brave Eagle (157) Nicky Henderson (2018 13th Martin Pipe)
                    Crievehill (154) Nigel Twiston-Davies (2019 4th Kim Muir)
                    Kildisart (151) Ben Pauling (2019 4th JLT)
                    Le Breuil (145) Ben Pauling (2019 1st NHC)
                    Mister Malarky (147) Colin Tizzard (2019 4th RSA)
                    Now McGinty (147) Stuart Edmunds (2019 8th RSA)
                    Talkischeap (157) Alan King (2018 PU AB)
                    Vinndication (I59) Kim Bailey (2019 5th JLT)
                    (I’ve taken out Mulcahys Hill because he is PU & F at the Festival and I don’t like Warren Greatrex)

                    Henderson, Tizzard and King are the only trainers listed about to have won this in the last 10 years.

                    Added Mister Malarky @ 33/1 before his run today. I liked his run in the RSA last year and I expect today's run to be a prep for this. Coincidentally, Colin ran Golden Chieftain on 22nd Feb before winning this back in 2013, and I like MM's overall profile.
                    Well that worked out well

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by charlie View Post
                      Well that worked out well
                      I had a good look at him a few weeks back, as they've mentioned his mark from beginning of season.
                      Be interesting to see what handicapper does though, just backed Kildisart after this race as B365 went 33-1 & 8-1 respectively.
                      Reckon there'll be 7/8 pounds difference for March, should they both run.
                      Kildisart could easily go aintree instead.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        I backed Kildisart a few weeks ago for this race , But i know B.Pauling.
                        mentioned him for the G National , so that would be my main worry now.
                        I wouldn't have thought he'd run him in two hard races only 16 days apart.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          NORTHERN TRUST COMPANY NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

                          Ran in a chase within the last 60 days.
                          Seven or younger
                          Competed in a Graded Chase.
                          Not Mullins or Elliot
                          Rated at least 137
                          Finished first 4 all completed starts over fences
                          1st or 2nd last time out

                          72 become 1

                          Knight In Dubai @ 25/1 NRNB

                          *edited GBB over 145
                          Last edited by charlie; 26 February 2020, 09:57 AM.

                          Comment

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