The Mares races

[Garrison Savannah]

Is Telmesomethinggirl currently too short in the betting. Re-watching the Dawn Run she was fairly cajoled to the front, not given too hard a time, and won with plenty in hand.

However, what has she beat? How will she fare against the older proven mares such as Concertista, and will she find the old course to her liking?

I guess the opposite argument is Black Tears won’t be going, Concertista could go down a different route, and is it likely any other novices will improve past her?

Overall my conclusion would be I’d be happy enough if I had a 20s ticket and was making a book. At 8/1 and not making a book, she’s not for me.

[Hardy Eustace]

How do we split the Kenny Alexander Mares?

We know Honeysuckle is going to try and retain her crown.

TMSG looks the most natural Mares Hurdle contestant. She's improving and won the Mares Novices very sweetly, IMHO. I loved how she put the race to bed after jumping the last and won going away, the mares hurdle trip on the old course will be absolutely perfect for her.

Minella melody looks like making a chaser but the one I would be most interested in would be Gauloise. I think she'd love a fence.

Trouble is off 138 she's probably well enough handicapped for a festival hurdle and if that mark is managed she would likely get into the bottom of the county hurdle weights.

Could really do with the stable tours hurrying up...

[charlie]

Is Telmesomethinggirl currently too short in the betting. Re-watching the Dawn Run she was fairly cajoled to the front, not given too hard a time, and won with plenty in hand.

However, what has she beat? How will she fare against the older proven mares such as Concertista, and will she find the old course to her liking?

I guess the opposite argument is Black Tears won’t be going, Concertista could go down a different route, and is it likely any other novices will improve past her?

Overall my conclusion would be id be happy enough if I had a 20s ticket and was making a book. At 8/1 and not making a book, she's not for me.

In a word, no. Todays markets aren't what they were. Far more people are betting ante post and bookies are wise to how horses are likely to be campaigned. They are nervous of Cheltenham winners, extremely risk averse, and I'm quite frankly surprised she's 10/1 and not shorter, given current levels of bookie ante post butchery.

In terms of history, perhaps previous winners of the mares novice aren't good examples because none of them have gone on to win at Cheltenham since, but it will happen and I see no reason why TMSG can't be that mare. She's pissed in at Cheltenham vs some graded types in a style that shows there's lots left, and IMO she did little to dent her reputation after travelling strongly into the race at Punchestown, before not fully seeing out 3m.

You raise a good point re how she'd fair vs older more proven mares like Concertista, which is always the conundrum for novices, but I think she'll hold her own.

Concertista won the mares novice and went off 10/11 in the mares hurdle. Laurina won the race and went off 5/2 in a Champion Hurdle. Limini won the race and went off 6/4 in the mares hurdle. I know none of these backed up which is a fair counter, but it puts into perspective why 20/1 is just not a realistic expectation based on what we know now, and why IMO, 10/1 is a really good bet.

HDB and RB are a potent combo at Cheltenham, TMSG has Cheltenham form, expectations are high having cost more than Honeysuckle so she'll be aimed at top races and at 6 going on 7 she could very well be improving.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great post Charlie. I also think she's rock solid and her SP will be much shorter for all the reasons you've pointed out.

What price was Concertista at this point last season? I'm guessing she was also around the 12 or 10/1 mark but can't remember.

[That Horse]

Hopefully not throwing a spanner in the works but just found this in the Chris Cook article on RP about Gordon Elliott's return;
--
It is not yet clear whether Black Tears, who stayed at Cullentra and won at the Cheltenham Festival, will return to training or be retired to the paddocks. --
Hardly backable at the moment with a retirement possibly hanging over her but interesting to see what happens to the prices if she does come back into training. Article is dated 6th September 2021.

[charlie]

Great post Charlie. I also think she's rock solid and her SP will be much shorter for all the reasons you've pointed out.

What price was Concertista at this point last season? I'm guessing she was also around the 12 or 10/1 mark but can't remember.

Thanks F_M.

Concertista was 10/1 in May 2020, with Honeysuckle @ 4/1 and BDD @ 5/1 heading the market.
IMO (and most peoples I imagine), those competitors were both far more dangerous to Concertista then, than Concertista, Black Tears and Echoes In Rain are to TMSG now. A lot or all of those could go elsewhere. Fences wouldn't be a shock or Concertista, nor would a champion hurdle tilt. Black Tears is a question mark, and Echoes In Rain could also go champion hurdle.

I'd seriously consider a bet at 5/1 (which I wouldn't normally do ante post this far out), so double the price seems a no-brainer IMO and the above reinforces why (on top of the OP) 10/1 makes sense. Great back to lay play for those into that

[Garrison Savannah]

Really interesting counter Charlie, thanks.

In terms of history, perhaps previous winners of the mares novice aren't good examples because none of them have gone on to win at Cheltenham since, but it will happen and I see no reason why TMSG can't be that mare. She's pissed in at Cheltenham vs some graded types in a style that shows there's lots left, and IMO she did little to dent her reputation after travelling strongly into the race at Punchestown, before not fully seeing out 3m.

You raise a good point re how she'd fair vs older more proven mares like Concertista, which is always the conundrum for novices, but I think she'll hold her own.

Concertista won the mares novice and went off 10/11 in the mares hurdle. Laurina won the race and went off 5/2 in a Champion Hurdle. Limini won the race and went off 6/4 in the mares hurdle. I know none of these backed up which is a fair counter, but it puts into perspective why 20/1 is just not a realistic expectation based on what we know now, and why IMO, 10/1 is a really good bet.

You’ve convinced me 20/1 is not a realistic price to be expecting for Telmesomethingirl

You’ve not convinced me 10/1 (and a general 8/1) is a good bet.

I’ll be watching her first race of the season with keen interest!

[charlie]

Really interesting counter Charlie, thanks.

You've convinced me 20/1 is not a realistic price to be expecting for Telmesomethingirl

You've not convinced me 10/1 (and a general 8/1) is a good bet.

I'll be watching her first race of the season with keen interest!

Cheers pal. It's a tough one because a 'good bet' lies in the eye of the beholder. Won't stop me trying though

My general rule of thumb, and I am talking generally here, but if a horse is a previous festival winner, is a double figure price, has a clear target, is trained by WM/GE/HDB and has the potential to improve (i.e. of an age that would do so), then I'm almost certainly classing that as a 'good bet', because I know what metrics are important, and I have enough information to make a decision that I think will pay off over time.

We've made what I think is a fairly solid race day price (if all goes to plan), but I am also thinking about the journey. I expect HDB to start TMSG off easy, and a facile debut win somewhere. Will that impact the market? Maybe, probably not, but hard to say. I think HDB will then send both Honey and TMSG to the Hatton's Grace, and whilst I fully expect Honeysuckle to win, I don't think TMSG will be a back number, not at all. Sure, they'll go their separate ways post Xmas, but I expect the cat to be well and truly out the bag on TMSG's ability by end of November, which isn't a million miles away.

So basically, 10/1 might not appeal much now, but I don't think you'll see December before she's half that and you're debating whether or not to take 5's, let alone 10's

Appreciate there are quite a few 'if's', 'but's' and 'maybe's' in there, and I am assuming quite a bit, but I think we know enough to make those assumptions.

How did I do?

[Lobos]

Hopefully not throwing a spanner in the works but just found this in the Chris Cook article on RP about Gordon Elliott's return;
--
It is not yet clear whether Black Tears, who stayed at Cullentra and won at the Cheltenham Festival, will return to training or be retired to the paddocks. --
Hardly backable at the moment with a retirement possibly hanging over her but interesting to see what happens to the prices if she does come back into training. Article is dated 6th September 2021.

Our very own Spectre mentioned her retiring to the paddocks a good month ago. Just shows how beneficial this forum is. In that time both Telmesomethinggirl and Shewearsitwell have been very popular punts for FJ members and the top industry prices on those two have been snapped up .

[Lobos]

My general rule of thumb, and I am talking generally here, but if a horse is a previous festival winner, is a double figure price, has a clear target, is trained by WM/GE/HDB and has the potential to improve (i.e. of an age that would do so), then I'm almost certainly classing that as a 'good bet',

WIth you pretty much all the way there Charlie. I wouldn't stop at those 3 trainers though. For me, previous festival form is huge and a known target is pretty much as big a plus in my book. Telmesomethinggirl, Flooring Porter, Honeysuckle, Shishkin, Put The Kettle On, Tiger, Monkfish.............all fit the bill for me. Some aren't attractive prices but their odds do probably reflect their chance.

[Spectre]

I'm 100% with every word Charlie has said here. I think the way antepost Festival markets are now, 10/1 for Telmesomethinggirl is fair enough. For me it comes down to whether you like her for the race or not. An easy decision for me taking a book approach of course, but even if I didn't I'd find it hard not to back her.

Presuming she has a normal build up, even if Concertista turns up and they do a U-turn with Black Tears, it's hard not to see her going off at less than half that price. She'd be the Limini to Vroum Vroum Mag and Apples Jade, and the biggest price of those three on the day was 11/4.

[Spectre]

Hopefully not throwing a spanner in the works but just found this in the Chris Cook article on RP about Gordon Elliott's return;
--
It is not yet clear whether Black Tears, who stayed at Cullentra and won at the Cheltenham Festival, will return to training or be retired to the paddocks. --
Hardly backable at the moment with a retirement possibly hanging over her but interesting to see what happens to the prices if she does come back into training. Article is dated 6th September 2021.

It's hard to know what to make of that. Connections were clear a few months ago that she was being retired to the breeding sheds. I wonder if they haven't managed to get her in foal. Given Chris Cook will be talking either to Gordon directly or to all the connections he can with a view to writing more coverage for his return, you'd guess something has been said that may not be in the public domain.

Whatever has prompted him to write it, we need to be watching carefully for any updates or news.

[jackh50]

It's hard to know what to make of that. Connections were clear a few months ago that she was being retired to the breeding sheds. I wonder if they haven't managed to get her in foal. Given Chris Cook will be talking either to Gordon directly or to all the connections he can with a view to writing more coverage for his return, you'd guess something has been said that may not be in the public domain.

Whatever has prompted him to write it, we need to be watching carefully for any updates or news.

priced up by all bookies on oddschecker, which may be significant

[That Horse]

priced up by all bookies on oddschecker, which may be significant

I don't think Black tears was ever taken out of the market. You'd think if she was retired then she'd be retired and that's it. Colreevy was taken out of Mare's Chase by the bookies pretty quickly if I recall.

Like Spectre said above, there's something possibly behind the scenes that none of us are aware of, but not too sure what would change in the market if BT is un-retired.

[jackh50]

I don't think Black tears was ever taken out of the market. You'd think if she was retired then she'd be retired and that's it. Colreevy was taken out of Mare's Chase by the bookies pretty quickly if I recall.

Like Spectre said above, there's something possibly behind the scenes that none of us are aware of, but not too sure what would change in the market if BT is un-retired.

I can’t quite remember whether she was removed from a lot of the betting or she wasn’t, a friend mentioned black tears to me the other day and was shocked to hear that she’d been retired because she was fully quoted by all bookies. A really odd one