Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Quevega]

I couldn’t see an entry for Ok Carroll in the Ultima entries??

not entered anywhere as far as i can see.

[Stormez]

Must be going straight to the National with Ok Corral? Is Pym still in the RSA?

[The King Pimm]

Must be going straight to the National with Ok Corral? Is Pym still in the RSA?

Yes Pym still in RSA and looked like his only entry

[Craigy14]

Yes Pym still in RSA and looked like his only entry

Henderson written off his previous run and said he had done everything right before that and sees no reason not to go RSA.

Run for the money at least but maybe would have preferred just getting the nrnb

[Splinterboy82]

Been having a look at the entries for this & nothing initially jumps off the page. However, cross ref to some of Gaulstats for this race and one horse kept ticking the boxes. No idea if he’ll go here but only other entry is in the Novice Hcap & think he’ll benefit for step up in trip. Didn’t run that bad in G1 company (hampered) over Xmas on only other try at trip (chase) & has won a G2 novice hurdle at the course last season impressively. A no show on trials day in Jan but interestingly the last 5 winners of this have all run at Chelters in Jan. A really likeable profile for this so have stuck 3pts ew NRNB with 365.....

Jarveys Plate 33/1

[Kevloaf]

Been having a look at the entries for this & nothing initially jumps off the page. However, cross ref to some of Gaulstats for this race and one horse kept ticking the boxes. No idea if he’ll go here but only other entry is in the Novice Hcap & think he’ll benefit for step up in trip. Didn’t run that bad in G1 company (hampered) over Xmas on only other try at trip (chase) & has won a G2 novice hurdle at the course last season impressively. A no show on trials day in Jan but interestingly the last 5 winners of this have all run at Chelters in Jan. A really likeable profile for this so have stuck 3pts ew NRNB with 365.....

Jarveys Plate 33/1

Is one of the key trends not "has to have won over 3m" for this race? (Genuinly don't remember)

I'll have more of a look at him this weekend.

[JackieMoon33]

I originally put up Erick Le Rouge for the Novice Handicap Chase but this is now his only entry. He’ll still be of interest to me depending on if he runs in the Pendil at Kempton and how he gets on.

[Splinterboy82]

Is one of the key trends not "has to have won over 3m" for this race? (Genuinly don't remember)

I'll have more of a look at him this weekend.

You’d be right Kev - one of the few he fell down on tbh:

“22 from last 25 had all won over 3 miles (Alfie Sherrin and Un Temps Pour Tout (first time) had both won a 3m hurdle, the latter in France). Exceptions - Bensalem '11, Rough Quest ‘95 and Frenchmans Creek’ 02 but those had been placed over three miles in at least two of their last three runs. 10 of last 28 winners (including Alfie) had already tried 4 miles sometime during their career. 19 hadn’t.”

Main stats I used (courtesy of the brilliant Gaulstats)....

The last 5 winners ran at Cheltenham that January.
Only one of the last seven winners aged older than eight.
10 of the last 12 won by either by novices or second season chasers.
The last five GB trained novices to win all had previously won a hurdle with a first prize of at least £10k.
All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles.
9 of the last 10 had run at a previous Festival.
Only two winning favourites since 1994.
No Irish trained winner since 2006.
The last 6 winners all rated at least 142 and none bigger than 11/1.
W Mullins and P Nicholls have yet to win it.
Six of the last seven winners wore some sort of headgear.

[The King Pimm]

I originally put up Erick Le Rouge for the Novice Handicap Chase but this is now his only entry. He’ll still be of interest to me depending on if he runs in the Pendil at Kempton and how he gets on.

Aah balls, I’ve got Erik Le Rouge for the Close Brothers too, I thought he’d have a better chance in that race than the Ultima

[Quevega]

Discorama & Le Breuil & Conditional
all fit nicely on the trends for this race and all have good course form, and will be on lower weights (carrying less than 11 stone) than they've carried for a long time.
The first two are well handicapped also, based on previous good form around the 145 mark.
The trainer thinks the conditional is well handicapped I think.

[Istabraq]

Could be totally wrong here but I’ve always thought The Conditional needs deep ground to be seen to best effect.
Day one won’t ride quick and the unrelenting weather may well produce testing ground but if it was quicker than ‘soft’ I’d expect him to come up short...

[Quevega]

Could be totally wrong here but I’ve always thought The Conditional needs deep ground to be seen to best effect.
Day one won’t ride quick and the unrelenting weather may well produce testing ground but if it was quicker than ‘soft’ I’d expect him to come up short...

It's almost guaranteed to be nearer soft than good first day, and he ran his best race on good to soft, off 3lb lower in the hennessey.
His biggest issue for this race is getting in. If he does get in off 10st 6lb or so then he's likely to run really well again.
It's touch and go he makes the cut though.

[Kevloaf]

I like Le Breuil too.

Winner on the card last year, clearly no issue with stamina and I don't mind that his main aim is the National as that's not stopped horses doing well in this race before.

22/1 NRNB (5 places) seems alreet.

I do like him for the GN so I'd be a bit annoyed if he did win here without me backing him, and I inevitably would back him on the day, so I'll save myself some time.

[Stormez]

Discorama & Le Breuil & Conditional
all fit nicely on the trends for this race and all have good course form, and will be on lower weights (carrying less than 11 stone) than they've carried for a long time.
The first two are well handicapped also, based on previous good form around the 145 mark.
The trainer thinks the conditional is well handicapped I think.

I've got Discorama & The Conditional so pleasing to see that. Will have to add Le Breuil, can't risk a repeat of last year & watch him chin Discorama!

[YoungHustler]

Thought Kildisart ran a nice race in staying on 5th and only 6l off the winner. Hopefully a nice prep for the Ultima. I can see he has gone down in price with some firms(12s PP) but B365 have pushed him out to 33s.
Mister Malarkey will get a few more lbs for that win and his price has gone down to a general 12. I would much prefer to be on Kildisart at 33s and think he will turn around the form at Cheltenham, IMO.