Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[JackieMoon33]

I was on Copperhead last time and the way he jumped and travelled just screamed graded horse in a handicap to me and if he turned up in a handicap at Cheltenham, I’d happily get stuck in. He’d be a backable price if rocking up here too.

Anyone know any plans for him?

He's my number one at present but no idea if he's heading down this route or the RSA if good enough.

[Kevloaf]

Vintage Clouds and Yorkhill are the two I've backed.


Feel like Vintage Clouds is a busted flush after he dotted up last weekend




I like a class angle in this race although the winners don't prove that's what is needed over the last 10 years I suppose.



I do think Imperial Aura will run a big race this weekend, which would potentially boost Pym's formlime albeit I think Imperial Aura needs the drop in trip.

I might actually do a double if I think on, on the day.... Imperial Aura and Pym

[Kevloaf]

We haven't got many (or any?!) strong trend followers on here at the moment have we?

I do think I remember a strong looking one about horses having to have won over 3m to win this race?

[Istabraq]

We haven't got many (or any?!) strong trend followers on here at the moment have we?

I do think I remember a strong looking one about horses having to have won over 3m to win this race?

I use trends as a guide, not a rule.

Reminder that Gaultstats has all Cheltenham trends, the site is a great read and is done entirely voluntarily though the owner/writer does suggest a charity donation.
Great read...

[charlie]

I use trends as a guide, not a rule.

Reminder that Gaultstats has all Cheltenham trends, the site is a great read and is done entirely voluntarily though the owner/writer does suggest a charity donation.
Great read...

Yeh it’s an excellent place for stats and trends

[Kevloaf]

I use trends as a guide, not a rule.

Reminder that Gaultstats has all Cheltenham trends, the site is a great read and is done entirely voluntarily though the owner/writer does suggest a charity donation.
Great read...

Yeh it’s an excellent place for stats and trends

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

[TCH29]

I think The Conditional is absolutely perfect for this, but I agree Copperhead looks class too.

Then I see how delicately Ex-Patriot was handled today and wonder whether he could be routed here?

I think this will be a very high quality Ultima.

I also still think Yorkhill is coming here too, and a clean round...?

Good race. Lots of value. Have 3 of the above 4 covered...but not EX-P.

[TCH29]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

[Stormez]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

Plate would be more likely wouldn’t it? 20/1 for that

[TCH29]

Out of interest, why? 3 miles looked alright for him and a generous mark?

[Kevloaf]

For those more knowledgeable and better informed, why does no one have Ex-P priced up for the Ultima?

Probably just as simple as him being under the radar?


Only tried 3m once before today and that was a 33L defeat behind Agrapart in Heavy at Cheltenham...


Weakened today over 3m too?



27 races in today, only 2 at 3 miles - one soundly beaten and the other looking like he may not have stayed?




Doesn't mean he can't run in it, but probably overlooked in terms of people rushing to back him




It's perhaps more likely he ran over 3m today to lower his mark, and when he gets back over a more suitable trip he's going to be better handicapped

[TCH29]

Fair enough. Felt like he was given a deliberately soft ride rather than didn’t stay. But that may well have been part of the mark managing plan for the Pipe...just seemed odd he’s not priced up.

[robith]

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

He's said it will all be updated by Feb 14th.

It's an absolutely phenomenal resource and well worth a donation. As others has said I don't use trends as a ride or die rule, but they're great for giving a picture of the characteristics of the type of horse that wins that race

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Absolutely.

Hopefully he'll be back soon and we can sticky the thread.... what's his twitter actually?

@gaultstats

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

As mentioned on the handicap thread been told they are hoping to aim Vinndication here despite his rating of 159 as connections think he is ‘well in’. They also like a bet and see he has been slashed from 20/1 to 10/1 with Bet365. Sloppy really as if you want a proper plunge best to wait for all bookies to price the horse up at a biggish price.

Two of the last 3 have won with ratings in the 150s (highest 153) after 20 odd years with it never happening. Relatively unexposed still at 3 miles does anyone give him a chance in this?