Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Quevega]

If I thought a horse was good enough to win a Gold Cup, I would 100% back them in a handicap with top weight.


There isn't a scenario I can think of where I wouldn't.




Don't make me change your avatar again

It's tough to win this handicap, especially with top weight off that high a mark.

You're giving weight to some potential improvers.

Assuming they are all supposed to finish in a line, it's unrealistic to expect at least one or two not to perform better than they have done previously, therefore Vinndication will likely need to improve also. Or at least run to his rating and nothing else do the same or worse.

In my opinion, if he can win this race on those terms he'd have gone close in the Gold cup. Because I think he'll need to improve. And that's why it's a mad decision.

I wouldn't have give him a great chance in the Gold cup but would have considered him as a credible outsider 'at the prices'
Considering him as a potential winner at the prices is different to thinking he's good enough to win.

If I thought a horse was not good enough to win the Gold cup I would 100% not back it off top weight (rated 159) in this handicap

That would be stupid IMO

[Kevloaf]

It's tough to win this handicap, especially with top weight off that high a mark.

You're giving weight to some potential improvers.

If I thought a horse was not good enough to win the Gold cup I would 100% not back it off top weight (rated 159) in this handicap

That would be stupid IMO

It isn't that tough to win this handicap from being near the top of the weights...


Put it this way, I think Vinndication running to 159 sets the standard, and therefore he could win this race.


I don't think if he ran to 159 he'd be able to place in this years Gold Cup.



That's where I'm at. Nothing stupid about that.

If he does run to mid 160's, then happy days, he has some in hand and maybe would have placed in a Gold Cup.... I wouldn't care though, I've got a festival winner, who can go for it next year now he may have proven he deserves it.



Don't IMO me

[Quevega]

To be fair. Even though I think he's up against it in this race, due to it's nature.
It's all about prices, and anything 12-1 and above is Ok,
just OK though.

I would add that in a 24 runner handicap at the Cheltenham festival - to expect you can win one, and run to your existing rating is Optimistic with a capital O.

As I've said, for him to win this it would almost have to be Gold cup placing level.

There is a reason that seeing a horse rated this high with his profile, running in this race is unusual.

[Kevloaf]

2014	Holywell	7	11-06	Richie McLernon	Jonjo O'Neill
2015	The Druids Nephew	8	11-03	Barry Geraghty	Neil Mulholland
2016	Un Temps Pour Tout	7	11-07	Tom Scudamore	David Pipe
2017	Un Temps Pour Tout	8	11–12	Tom Scudamore	David Pipe
2018	Coo Star Sivola	6	10-10	Lizzie Kelly	Nick Williams
2019	Beware The Bear	9	11-08	Jeremiah McGrath	Nicky Henderson

I would add that in a 24 runner handicap at the Cheltenham festival - to expect you can win one, and run to your existing rating is Optimistic with a capital O.

I dunno? Bar Coo Star Sivola none of them were exactly chucked in either.


If Vinndication runs to 159, they'll say he ran to 163 anyway, as the winner of a handicap goes up, especially at Cheltenham. Doesn't mean he's actually worth that rating, he's just as likely to then go up in class, get found out and his rating will creep back down as he is to kick on and become Grade 1 winning class?



I think if he runs to 159 (they'll call it circa 163) and he has a decent enough chance, at 12/1 ew 5 spots

Also a little misleading to say I expect it, I don't expect any horse to win..... but if he runs to the form he's shown, it's him setting the standard, it's up to others to reach that...

[Istabraq]

For me the days of handicap coups are gone, trainers face a constant battle ensuring their horses are rated high enough to get in.
Wasn’t that many years ago there’s be half a dozen running from out the handicap so trainers could hide a horses ability all year knowing that they’d be almost certain to qualify...

[Quevega]

2014	Holywell	7	11-06	Richie McLernon	Jonjo O'Neill
2015	The Druids Nephew	8	11-03	Barry Geraghty	Neil Mulholland
2016	Un Temps Pour Tout	7	11-07	Tom Scudamore	David Pipe
2017	Un Temps Pour Tout	8	11–12	Tom Scudamore	David Pipe
2018	Coo Star Sivola	6	10-10	Lizzie Kelly	Nick Williams
2019	Beware The Bear	9	11-08	Jeremiah McGrath	Nicky Henderson

I dunno? Bar Coo Star Sivola none of them were exactly chucked in either.


If Vinndication runs to 159, they'll say he ran to 163 anyway, as the winner of a handicap goes up, especially at Cheltenham. Doesn't mean he's actually worth that rating, he's just as likely to then go up in class, get found out and his rating will creep back down as he is to kick on and become Grade 1 winning class?



I think if he runs to 159 (they'll call it circa 163) and he has a decent enough chance, at 12/1 ew 5 spots

Also a little misleading to say I expect it, I don't expect any horse to win..... but if he runs to the form he's shown, it's him setting the standard, it's up to others to reach that...

Not sure what the list is for.

If he runs to 163 he runs to 163.
Ratings are facts.
It is a fact that he is currently rated 159.

It's fair to have personal doubts about some ratings but they are there as a barometer. More often right than wrong, but it's not an exact science.

I think you're misunderstanding what I've said.
If he is still rated 159, after the event, he will not have won it. Therefore if he runs to his 'standard' then he will not win. The odds are against it. So to expect him to win by running to 159 is not realistic. I didn't mean I thought you expected him to win.
The system means he'll have to improve to win.

In a roundabout way you're kind of suggesting he's not well handicapped.

[Kevloaf]

Not sure what the list is for.

Which horses in that list went on to achieve higher OR's than they did in the Ultima?

If he runs to 163 he runs to 163.
Ratings are facts.
It is a fact that he is currently rated 159.

It's only a fact in that it's written down. It's not an actual factual piece of anything. That's a hilarious comment
If the OR from the UK handicapper and Irish Handicapper are both written down but different, which one is the FACT?

It's fair to have personal doubts about some ratings but they are there as a barometer. More often right than wrong, but it's not an exact science.

Exactly, not facts.

I think you're misunderstanding what I've said.
If he is still rated 159, after the event, he will not have won it. Therefore if he runs to his 'standard' then he will not win. The odds are against it. So to expect him to win by running to 159 is not realistic. I didn't mean I thought you expected him to win.
The system means he'll have to improve to win.

No, you're misunderstanding me Q - I am saying if he runs to whatever 159 happens to be, they'll put him higher (and therefore put everything up too high)... I don't think it's mental to say if he runs to 159, that could win BUT they'd put everything up including him.... as it's perceived he HAS TO run above his mark to win the race...

When that just isn't the case. He could run to his mark and win!

In a roundabout way you're kind of suggesting he's not well handicapped.

I don't think he's particularly well handicapped.
I think he's the one setting the standard though

[Ray]

I dont see vinndication doing it off top weight, he has the class but will he stay at cheltenham as apposed to 3 miles flat track at ascot? I dont think hes shown enough for me to get involved id prefer the chances of soneone like Pym he has shown he can cope with the track and trip hes an improving horse and the key with him has been fences and a longer trip..2nd in a ballymore aswell so he isnt a big staying boat either! He would be of massive interest IF he came here

[Kevloaf]

I dont see vinndication doing it off top weight, he has the class but will he stay at cheltenham as apposed to 3 miles flat track at ascot? I dont think hes shown enough for me to get involved id prefer the chances of soneone like Pym he has shown he can cope with the track and trip hes an improving horse and the key with him has been fences and a longer trip..2nd in a ballymore aswell so he isnt a big staying boat either! He would be of massive interest IF he came here

2nd in "a ballymore"

That's a bit kind


The Ballymore you're referring to is a trial, he was beaten by Coolanly and went on to show that he's only a handicapper over hurdles coming 11th in the Martin Pipe.


Fortunately if you are a Pym fan, this is a handicap and he looks better over fences...

[Ray]

2nd in "a ballymore"

That's a bit kind

It is! But you get the point, he can keep his pace for a shorter trip At cheltenham aswell as stay 3m 1f there, could ypu see pym goin here or the rsa?

[Quevega]

Vinndication is rated 159 by the UK handicapper.

Is it true that he is rated 159 by the UK handicapper ?

If it is true ?

What is it ?

It's a Fact.


What does "if he runs to whatever 159 happens to be" mean ?

When he ran off 151 in November what did that happen to be ?
159 ?
or 151 circa 159.

I kind of get what you're trying to say, however your viewpoint is reliant upon a certain amount of disregard for the handicapping system, which although it has it's flaws it's still better than VAR And been around for a lot longer.

I'm a lot less annoyed now so thanks for the therapy
If it wins you should make sure you remind me of this.
And I'll remind you it should have ran in the Gold Cup or Ryanair

[Kevloaf]

It is! But you get the point, he can keep his pace for a shorter trip At cheltenham aswell as stay 3m 1f there, could ypu see pym goin here or the rsa?

I wouldn't give him a chance in an RSA.... so here?

Although I don't fancy him here but haven't properly looked at this race yet.

[Ray]

Tonight would be my first time truly looking at this, originally i thought the conditional for this was the right move but looking at how Pym travelled at cheltenham i will be on him also imperial aura has franked the form since that race

[Kevloaf]

Vinndication is rated 159 by the UK handicapper.

Is it true that he is rated 159 by the UK handicapper ?

If it is true ?

What is it ?

It's a Fact.


What does "if he runs to whatever 159 happens to be" mean ?

When he ran off 151 in November what did that happen to be ?
159 ?
or 151 circa 159.

I kind of get what you're trying to say, however your viewpoint is reliant upon a certain amount of disregard for the handicapping system, which although it has it's flaws it's still better than VAR And been around for a lot longer.

I'm a lot less annoyed now so thanks for the therapy
If it wins you should make sure you remind me of this.
And I'll remind you it should have ran in the Gold Cup or Ryanair

Haha, that's the same as saying if it's written down, it's a fact

What I am saying is that IF Vinndication MATCHES his best ever performance in the Ultima, I personally think that could win this race, IF that happened, I am 100% certain they'd rate him higher than the 159 he achieved so far... It's a pretty moot point really



What I did realise during that, is that we don't clash very often

I enjoyed it though.... I bet we enjoyed it more than anyone that has to read it later does

[Quevega]

Haha, that's the same as saying if it's written down, it's a fact

What I am saying is that IF Vinndication MATCHES his best ever performance in the Ultima, I personally think that could win this race, IF that happened, I am 100% certain they'd rate him higher than the 159 he achieved so far... It's a pretty moot point really



What I did realise during that, is that we don't clash very often


Which is a good job as we could go round and round forever

I enjoyed it though.... I bet we enjoyed it more than anyone that has to read it later does

That is a FACT.