Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Kevloaf]

The problem you’ve got Kev is there’ll be At least one or two 159 horses who get in here off 145...

Absolutely, just like when we all backed Singlefarmpayment in on 142, only for him to not beat UTPT at 155.

Noble Endeavor 3rd off 154.

Go Conquer was in off 137 and managed 5th.




I'm just saying, I think running in the Ultima is a better decision than going for a Gold Cup or Ryanair.


I definitely don't think he's well handicapped, but I've paid my money now.


Hopefully Yorkhill beats them all

[Istabraq]

I think it also depends on the owner.
I remember the Giant Bolster running in about 5 Gold Cups and the owner said, with the exception of one year (Synchronised ?) he didn’t believe they could win but he’d rather nick 2nd/3rd/4th in a Gold Cup than win a handicap, not a view that everyone will share but I get where he’s coming from...

[Kevloaf]

I think it also depends on the owner.
I remember the Giant Bolster running in about 5 Gold Cups and the owner said, with the exception of one year (Synchronised ?) he didn’t believe they could win but he’d rather nick 2nd/3rd/4th in a Gold Cup than win a handicap, not a view that everyone will share but I get where he’s coming from...

Yeah, fair enough I suppose.

He was 2nd and 3rd off of 160 I see.... behind Synchronised and Lord Windemere.



Not a weak Gold Cup though in my opinion. Clan Des Obeaux is a dual King George winner, rated circa 170 and he's 6th favourite for it.
Native River is 20/1 and he's a mid 160's horse who has a Gold Cup on his CV.




This year, it'd be bonkers to go for a Gold Cup with Vinndication.

[Viking Flagship]

Vinndication just HAS to be taken on from 159 surely? I’d have to put a big question mark over him under this kind of test off that kind of mark, let alone the fact that it has to be about 50/50 he even turns up. He’s the perfect example of a Cheltenham handicap favourite that I’d happily see win without a penny on and accept I was wrong.

[Kevloaf]

Vinndication just HAS to be taken on from 159 surely? I’d have to put a big question mark over him under this kind of test off that kind of mark, let alone the fact that it has to be about 50/50 he even turns up. He’s the perfect example of a Cheltenham handicap favourite that I’d happily see win without a penny on and accept I was wrong.

More than 50/50 prob?
He does chat rubbish though.


Bailey is confident Vinndication, who has not run since making a winning return to action in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November, will be back in time to contest the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival
He said: “Vinndication is cantering and seems very well and I’m happy with him. He won’t run between now and Cheltenham. The chances are he will end up going to Cheltenham and he will have an entry in the Ultima.
“He probably hasn’t missed anything being off and as he is only a young horse and it has given him more time to mature.
“If we keep drifting away he is a slightly forgotten horse, which is a nice situation to be in.”

[Scooby91]

Vinndication just HAS to be taken on from 159 surely? I’d have to put a big question mark over him under this kind of test off that kind of mark, let alone the fact that it has to be about 50/50 he even turns up. He’s the perfect example of a Cheltenham handicap favourite that I’d happily see win without a penny on and accept I was wrong.

Why 50/50? Hes been well backed and confirmed it's the plan.

He won a very competitive handicap and routed the field at 2/1 at ascot in a race not dis simular to this.

Hes gone up 8 pounds. And the 2nd has followed up. If you look at the way he jumped the last, he had plenty left in the tank.

despite a mark of 159. He's actually still unexposed. He's the best horse in the race by far, and is without doubt a graded horse against handicappers.

I cant find a single horse that I wouldnt expect him to beat in a match giving away the weight. Hes also very likely to stay out of trouble at the front end in a big field.

Plenty to like, only his weight to dislike. But he's a big strong horse, and can carry a burden against handicappers.

[Viking Flagship]

More than 50/50 prob?
He does chat rubbish though.


Bailey is confident Vinndication, who has not run since making a winning return to action in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November, will be back in time to contest the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival
He said: “Vinndication is cantering and seems very well and I’m happy with him. He won’t run between now and Cheltenham. The chances are he will end up going to Cheltenham and he will have an entry in the Ultima.
“He probably hasn’t missed anything being off and as he is only a young horse and it has given him more time to mature.
“If we keep drifting away he is a slightly forgotten horse, which is a nice situation to be in.”

I know you really like him Kev and sometimes that’s enough, I just don’t think he’s an appealing betting proposition at this stage. But it’s fine because you’ve got loads of good ones to make up for it

[Kevloaf]

I know you really like him Kev and sometimes that’s enough, I just don’t think he’s an appealing betting proposition at this stage. But it’s fine because you’ve got loads of good ones to make up for it

I do have a soft spot which is definitely clouding the fact he's not 'well handicapped'.



Barters Hill, Neon Wolf and Vinndication are all so high up in my 'favourite horses' list

[Viking Flagship]

Why 50/50? Hes been well backed and confirmed it's the plan.

He won a very competitive handicap and routed the field at 2/1 at ascot in a race not dis simular to this.

Hes gone up 8 pounds. And the 2nd has followed up. If you look at the way he jumped the last, he had plenty left in the tank.

despite a mark of 159. He's actually still unexposed. He's the best horse in the race by far, and is without doubt a graded horse against handicappers.

I cant find a single horse that I wouldnt expect him to beat in a match giving away the weight. Hes also very likely to stay out of trouble at the front end in a big field.

Plenty to like, only his weight to dislike. But he's a big strong horse, and can carry a burden against handicappers.

- Weight
- Trainer unreliable with target
- Course form

Not convinced that winning the Sodexo resembles an Ultima.

That’s enough questions for me to take him on at the price. I like the horse, I just don’t see the value this far out.

[Folski]

I do have a soft spot which is definitely clouding the fact he's not 'well handicapped'.



Barters Hill, Neon Wolf and Vinndication are all so high up in my 'favourite horses' list

Kev, I love Barters so much.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I mentioned a few weeks back that I was told Vinndication was coming here and as much as I like the horse I just couldn’t get to grips with the enthusiasm of connections. Fair play they have crashed his price this last couple of weeks and even I had to get involved today at 15/1 with Hills. I am as certain as you can be he will be heading for this race if fit. Certainly interesting to hear Scooby’s positive take as it very much mirrors the messages I’ve been getting. I personally remain sceptical

[Pendil]

Deise Aba for me in this WH @ 25/1. Hope they don't go Kim Muir

[YoungHustler]

I also really like Vinndication but put off by the weight. I haven't given up on Kildisart who had similar form to Vinndication last year but will be 8lbs better off and is at a much bigger price due to his lack of form this year but I think this has been due to the trainers form and running on heavy the last twice. Also, really like Any Second Now so glad others on here think the same.

[SamuelP]

I also really like Vinndication but put off by the weight. I haven't given up on Kildisart who had similar form to Vinndication last year but will be 8lbs better off and is at a much bigger price due to his lack of form this year but I think this has been due to the trainers form and running on heavy the last twice. Also, really like Any Second Now so glad others on here think the same.

Just about to post about Kildisart. Like you say he'll be 8lbs better off than Vinndication, form at Cheltenham reads 41 (4 being last year's JLT), and his form on anything with the term good in the going reads 141221 (has also won twice on soft).
Now at the start of the season Ben Pauling seemed excited about the horse - 'He is in that bracket at the moment where he’s top end of handicaps or he’s maybe going to be slightly under where you need to be to win level-weights races.

“But I think he’s certainly a horse on the improve – I think we’ve got a lot left to come.”

Indeed he pitched him in a listed race and was beaten back in third by Lostintranslation and then has raced twice on heavy which I don't think will have suited. He's dropped 5lbs through the season and personally think he could have a bit in hand on that mark and should improve for Spring ground. Pauling has said that in and around 3 miles is his trip and he seemed to finish strongly in last years JLT and at Aintree. 33/1with B365 and WH, only 20s with PP and BF.

[Eggs]

Just about to post about Kildisart. Like you say he'll be 8lbs better off than Vinndication, form at Cheltenham reads 41 (4 being last year's JLT), and his form on anything with the term good in the going reads 141221 (has also won twice on soft).
Now at the start of the season Ben Pauling seemed excited about the horse - 'He is in that bracket at the moment where he’s top end of handicaps or he’s maybe going to be slightly under where you need to be to win level-weights races.

“But I think he’s certainly a horse on the improve – I think we’ve got a lot left to come.”

Indeed he pitched him in a listed race and was beaten back in third by Lostintranslation and then has raced twice on heavy which I don't think will have suited. He's dropped 5lbs through the season and personally think he could have a bit in hand on that mark and should improve for Spring ground. Pauling has said that in and around 3 miles is his trip and he seemed to finish strongly in last years JLT and at Aintree. 33/1with B365 and WH, only 20s with PP and BF.

...I mentioned Kildisart in this thread quite a few pages back. It actually got a favourable mention for this in the RP a number of weeks ago.