Ultima Handicap Chase 2020

[Quevega]

The money is probably because kim bailey confirmed the target yesterday. I'm likely going to back him in a min myself.
I know he's 159 and will carry 11st 12.

However I dont really believe in the handicap system, when you've got the likes of frodon carrying monster burdens to victory against inferior opposition. And the irish get taxed anyway.

I was considering any second now. Off 150 but by the time he gets taxed 2 pounds or so. How's he going to give a far superior horse in vinndication a beating, when hes considerably inferior, and receives just a few pounds.

When you weigh 500kg plus and are just plain better, what's a few pounds.

I kind of see what you're trying to say here. And class can often overcome a weight disadvantage.
But it's also going against years and years of historical evidence, with regards how much weight makes a difference.

Backing a horse like vinndication off that mark is relying on him at least running up to his best or improving.
And the rest of the field all running below or according to their mark.

Mad decision as already stated (to run here)
one of the worst I've ever seen in fact.

[Ribocco]

The money is probably because kim bailey confirmed the target yesterday. I'm likely going to back him in a min myself.
I know he's 159 and will carry 11st 12.

However I dont really believe in the handicap system, when you've got the likes of frodon carrying monster burdens to victory against inferior opposition. And the irish get taxed anyway.

I was considering any second now. Off 150 but by the time he gets taxed 2 pounds or so. How's he going to give a far superior horse in vinndication a beating, when hes considerably inferior, and receives just a few pounds.

When you weigh 500kg plus and are just plain better, what's a few pounds.

Agreed Scooby. Of those at the top of the market I can't see any of them beating Vinndication. I've backed him.

[Viking Flagship]

I've added to my 14/1 on The Conditional in this with Any Second Now after his good run yesterday. He spent his novice season chasing around Monalee, Footpad and Invitation Only, primarily over trips short of his best, before going off fav for the Close Bros when disappointing. He then looked to benefit from the step up in trip as a 2nd season novice finishing 5th in the Paddy Power over Christmas before winning the Kim Muir off almost top weight. He's obviously gone up a fair few lbs for that (150 in Ireland) but was running well in the Paddy Power again this season before being brought down 4 out and has followed that up with an eye catching 3rd at the weekend over a short enough trip. He still looks very competitive off his higher mark.

It's well documented that a high rating isn't a barrier to success in this race and he's earned that rating with a series of runs that suggest he's actually a pretty good horse with scope still to show more over this trip.

Record in 3m+ handicaps:
- 5th of 27 in 2018 Paddy Power
- 1st of 23 in 2019 Kim Muir
- Fell 2019 Irish National when sent off as JPs first string
- UR (effectively BD) of 27 when travelling well in 2019 Paddy Power

Other 3m efforts show a 4l 3rd to Chris's Dream and Champagne Classic and a 5L 2nd to Battleoverdoyen (just shy of 3m). He's definitely got some class.

My only reservation is that the National might well be the main target this year but, as a 2019 Festival winner, I'd like to think they'd want to bring him back. And with the way he's already run in a couple of competitive handicaps this year there's no reason to think he's being tenderly campaigned. Besides, weights for the Nash will already be out.

After the run at the weekend PP/BF immediately went 14s but you can still get 25s with Hills and I'm happy to take it.

[Viking Flagship]

I've had this window open for about the last hour putting my case together only for me to click 'post' and realise the forum is already talking about him

[Quevega]

I've added to my 14/1 on The Conditional in this with Any Second Now after his good run yesterday. He spent his novice season chasing around Monalee, Footpad and Invitation Only, primarily over trips short of his best, before going off fav for the Close Bros when disappointing. He then looked to benefit from the step up in trip as a 2nd season novice finishing 5th in the Paddy Power over Christmas before winning the Kim Muir off almost top weight. He's obviously gone up a fair few lbs for that (150 in Ireland) but was running well in the Paddy Power again this season before being brought down 4 out and has followed that up with an eye catching 3rd at the weekend over a short enough trip. He still looks very competitive off his higher mark.

It's well documented that a high rating isn't a barrier to success in this race and he's earned that rating with a series of runs that suggest he's actually a pretty good horse with scope still to show more over this trip.

Record in 3m+ handicaps:
- 5th of 27 in 2018 Paddy Power
- 1st of 23 in 2019 Kim Muir
- Fell 2019 Irish National when sent off as JPs first string
- UR (effectively BD) of 27 when travelling well in 2019 Paddy Power

Other 3m efforts show a 4l 3rd to Chris's Dream and Champagne Classic and a 5L 2nd to Battleoverdoyen (just shy of 3m). He's definitely got some class.

My only reservation is that the National might well be the main target this year but, as a 2019 Festival winner, I'd like to think they'd want to bring him back. And with the way he's already run in a couple of competitive handicaps this year there's no reason to think he's being tenderly campaigned. Besides, weights for the Nash will already be out.

After the run at the weekend PP/BF immediately went 14s but you can still get 25s with Hills and I'm happy to take it.

He'd be in with a shout I'd reckon.
I think it's definitely an advantage in this race to have good course experience, preferably in the race itself or at least over course and distance, and obviously be a proven stayer.

The Conditional looks to have a very solid chance, and if horses like Vinndication and other 155+ horses run, then he's going to feel like he's not got a jockey on. It does hand an advantage to the lower weights, who would be used to carrying 11 stone plus most days.
Just got to take advantage of it on the day.

A lot of the ones I've looked at have gone up so much in the weights it's hard to fancy them strongly, but if they ran, you kind of know they'd still probably run well (which is kind of what scooby's saying about Vinndication, although he lacks the experience).

Some interesting likely runners, or previous course and distance types.

Cogry - 144 (highest mark at age 11)
Vintage Clouds - 154 (144 last year)
Beware the Bear - 160 (151 last year)
Lake View Lad - 154 (155 last year)
Flying Angel - 144 (142 last year)
Rock The Kasbah - 150

[Scooby91]

He'd be in with a shout I'd reckon.
I think it's definitely an advantage in this race to have good course experience, preferably in the race itself or at least over course and distance, and obviously be a proven stayer.

The Conditional looks to have a very solid chance, and if horses like Vinndication and other 155+ horses run, then he's going to feel like he's not got a jockey on. It does hand an advantage to the lower weights, who would be used to carrying 11 stone plus most days.
Just got to take advantage of it on the day.

A lot of the ones I've looked at have gone up so much in the weights it's hard to fancy them strongly, but if they ran, you kind of know they'd still probably run well (which is kind of what scooby's saying about Vinndication, although he lacks the experience).

Some interesting likely runners, or previous course and distance types.

Cogry - 144 (highest mark at age 11)
Vintage Clouds - 154 (144 last year)
Beware the Bear - 160 (151 last year)
Lake View Lad - 154 (155 last year)
Flying Angel - 144 (142 last year)
Rock The Kasbah - 150

Lake view lad goes for the national and misses this. Iv seen a few times including today

Hes one that I liked his run last year. Although diddnt seem to have the toe. And possibly picked up the pieces.

[Quevega]

Lake view lad goes for the national and misses this. Iv seen a few times including today

Hes one that I liked his run last year. Although diddnt seem to have the toe. And possibly picked up the pieces.

Yep, always seems to run on when others beaten.
Left Big River off the list and he does the same, unless it's Kelso.
There'll be a few miss it this year cos of the proximity to national.
Noble Endeavour would interest me if entered, as it's ran shite all season and his mark is now very low.

[Viking Flagship]

He'd be in with a shout I'd reckon.
I think it's definitely an advantage in this race to have good course experience, preferably in the race itself or at least over course and distance, and obviously be a proven stayer.

The Conditional looks to have a very solid chance, and if horses like Vinndication and other 155+ horses run, then he's going to feel like he's not got a jockey on. It does hand an advantage to the lower weights, who would be used to carrying 11 stone plus most days.
Just got to take advantage of it on the day.

A lot of the ones I've looked at have gone up so much in the weights it's hard to fancy them strongly, but if they ran, you kind of know they'd still probably run well (which is kind of what scooby's saying about Vinndication, although he lacks the experience).

Some interesting likely runners, or previous course and distance types.

Cogry - 144 (highest mark at age 11)
Vintage Clouds - 154 (144 last year)
Beware the Bear - 160 (151 last year)
Lake View Lad - 154 (155 last year)
Flying Angel - 144 (142 last year)
Rock The Kasbah - 150

It doesn't tend to be a race littered with unexposed up and coming types (for whatever reason) so you seem to be able to get away with not being particularly well-in. And as you say, if Vinndication runs then there'll be a lot of them feeling like they are well-in with the weights they'll be carrying!

[Kevloaf]

It was never going to take me long to part with money on Vinndication.

I liked him so, so much at one stage last year.



He's beaten Champ and been withi 3.25L of Defi Du Seuil and LIT who could well be QMCC and Gold Cup winners.




I don't think he's well in, I don't particularly like how he's been campaigned but I do love the horse and I did read the Kim Bailey article last night, and assumed he wouldn't get cut because of the big weight.

Alas, was wrong on that, so no 14/1, but 12/1 (and some at 13/1 with WH) will do.



I'd just not forgive myself given how much I liked him, and the obvious class angle that he might have.

[Kautostar]

Isn’t vinndication better going right handed?

[Quevega]

Isn’t vinndication better going right handed?

Trainer has trotted out shit like that in the past, and skipped cheltenham in his hurdle year.
Fucked about last year prior to running in the JLT, and said he was aiming at the Gold cup 2020, and now he's targeting a handicap off 159 at cheltenham.
wouldn't back antepost on that fella's word.

[Saxon Warrior]

Trainer has trotted out shit like that in the past, and skipped cheltenham in his hurdle year.
Fucked about last year prior to running in the JLT, and said he was aiming at the Gold cup 2020, and now he's targeting a handicap off 159 at cheltenham.
wouldn't back antepost on that fella's word.

Me neither.

[TCH29]

Trainer has trotted out shit like that in the past, and skipped cheltenham in his hurdle year.
Fucked about last year prior to running in the JLT, and said he was aiming at the Gold cup 2020, and now he's targeting a handicap off 159 at cheltenham.
wouldn't back antepost on that fella's word.

Agree. Surely the Ryanair would suit the horse down to the ground? A tough 2m 5f. He’s not a Gold Cup horse but he could go out hard in the Ryanair and make it a real test of stamina. Probably not good enough still, but surely that’s his race?

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure I buy into Q's theory here.


Top weight of 159 in a handicap, against going up against Min 171 off levels in a Ryanair?

Or a Gold Cup where he's just got no chance of beating Lostintranslation let alone the other horses?




Let him out class these shite Ultima horses..... would Un Temp Pour Tout have won the Gold Cup or Ryanair? Would he bollocks.




Big gap. They're trying to win a race, not make up the numbers?




If he runs to 159 in the Ultima, he could win it. If he runs to 159 in a Ryanair or Gold Cup, he can't.



If Kim Bailey hadn't chatted shit for a couple of years there wouldn't be this vendetta against him

[Istabraq]

The problem you’ve got Kev is there’ll be At least one or two 159 horses who get in here off 145...