Win Today & Festival ‘22

[Kevloaf]

Not your best sentence.
If you're going to do your late night drunken trolling, it needs to be readable.
I struggled with this one.

Aside from this one.
Good work BTW

I don't think these to win today and.... bets will be value for any horse, that isn't a novice hurdler that we stumble upon ahead of the curve. Anything that isn't a novice hurdler is going to be already somewhat exposed and then have the prices factored in. Like you mentioned with PTKO, and I saw Magic Daze every entry before finally popping a fence.

Clear as mud.

[Quevega]

I don't think these to win today and.... bets will be value for any horse, that isn't a novice hurdler that we stumble upon ahead of the curve. Anything that isn't a novice hurdler is going to be already somewhat exposed and then have the prices factored in. Like you mentioned with PTKO, and I saw Magic Daze every entry before finally popping a fence.

Clear as mud.

Bit clearer.
And I agree.
The prices seem a lot tighter and people should be selective.
It certainly shouldn't be about just trying to get sat on a nice price, or one that used to be nice.

I do think some of the graded races may offer an opportunity as when the second season horses come up against the established then these can be harder to price, so a firm opinion on a horse may allow a bet.
whether it wins or loses is another matter altogether.

[jono]

9/10 it's probably always worth betting on the first leg, and then rolling the winnings onto the Cheltenham race.
More often than not the price is actually worse off when you do the maths.
You can also take your stake back, giving you a free bet on the Cheltenham race, at no cost.

Then factor in you have the benefit of seeing how the first race has worked out. For me that's often underplayed. A win doesn't always mean you want them onside after.
Add in the possibility of cashout (if you're lucky to have it) if you put the second bet on with B365.
And finally gives you a chance to go EW for the second leg if you wish.

Occasionally there are some prices that appeal. The Champion Hurdle for some reason has for several seasons been a rare time where there's value here.
Epatante was a 40/1 double I think with her Kempton Christmas run (and also shows another occasional benefit where by the money flooded in for her on the day of that Kempton race, meaning she went off joint 2/1Fav but the 40/1 didn't budge - that then became a good bet to take). Last year the Morgiana / Christmas grade one had some fair prices.

But it's rare and like it seems with all antepost prices across the board, they are getting worse and worse.

[Odin]

Ballyadam Today and Any Race 16/1 Sky

Poor price again.

[That Horse]

Ballyadam Today and Any Race 16/1 Sky

Poor price again.

Things can only get better

[The King Pimm]

I did contact Skybet to price up Galvin to win tomorrow and the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 but they never confirmed it, I’ll message them again now even if I don’t think Galvin will win tomorrow

[Eggs]

…Sky have a couple of My Mate Mozzie specials in their NH Doubles section;

Royal Bond/Supreme @ 40-1
Royal Bond/Ballymore @ 40-1

[Eggs]

….Sky have Minella Indo to win the Down Royal Champion Chase & GC @ 8-1.

[charlie]

….Sky have Minella Indo to win the Down Royal Champion Chase & GC @ 8-1.

I know you're not necessarily endorsing this and just posting Eggs, but these bets are proper red herrings IMO.

It's such a small price difference that ignores a large number of factors. MI has underperformed on debut more times than he's won. Most horses are trained with March in mind, so it's hard to know how fit/ready he'll be. He's a year older, not massively important but worth noting. He'll be racing some race fit rivals in a Grade 1. He can make mistakes and is certainly not error free. All this adds up to a marginally bigger price for both races, when a marginal win probably doesn't move 6/1 much, and a loss would probably see his price pushed. The only way you come out on top here is if he absolutely sluices in, which I don't see happening.

[Eggs]

I know you're not necessarily endorsing this and just posting Eggs, but these bets are proper red herrings IMO.

It's such a small price difference that ignores a large number of factors. MI has underperformed on debut more times than he's won. Most horses are trained with March in mind, so it's hard to know how fit/ready he'll be. He's a year older, not massively important but worth noting. He'll be racing some race fit rivals in a Grade 1. He can make mistakes and is certainly not error free. All this adds up to a marginally bigger price for both races, when a marginal win probably doesn't move 6/1 much, and a loss would probably see his price pushed. The only way you come out on top here is if he absolutely sluices in, which I don't see happening.

….absolutely. It was a market that proved very fruitful for me in March & I’m not alone in already sitting on a number of fancy vouchers for next year but it really is a matter of being very selective.

[charlie]

….absolutely. It was a market that proved very fruitful for me in March & I’m not alone in already sitting on a number of fancy vouchers for next year but it really is a matter of being very selective.

Absolutely. I do think 7/1 Honeysuckle unbeaten looks mustard given the likelihood of an identical campaign to last year.

[Eggs]

….Sky have a couple of offers for today & the Festival.

Favoir to win 3.40 & a/r 33-1
John Locke to win 17.25 & a/r 80-1

[Eggs]

….a few more Sky offers today;

Go Dante win 17.25 & a/r 33-1
Bardenstown win 15.05 & a/r 40-1
Cool Cody 1st 4 in 16.15 & win PP Chase 66-1

[robith]

I know you're not necessarily endorsing this and just posting Eggs, but these bets are proper red herrings IMO.

It's such a small price difference that ignores a large number of factors. MI has underperformed on debut more times than he's won. Most horses are trained with March in mind, so it's hard to know how fit/ready he'll be. He's a year older, not massively important but worth noting. He'll be racing some race fit rivals in a Grade 1. He can make mistakes and is certainly not error free. All this adds up to a marginally bigger price for both races, when a marginal win probably doesn't move 6/1 much, and a loss would probably see his price pushed. The only way you come out on top here is if he absolutely sluices in, which I don't see happening.

Especially with Minella Indo

Form at non Cheltenham courses: 133212111F4

Form at Cheltenham festival: 121

Form on seasonal debut: 1321

He's a top horse, but imo if you think he can back up the Gold Cup, it seems safer to just back him for the Gold Cup as he can throw in the odd boooooookey run

[isitmarchyet]

Just got Sams Profile today + any race added by Sky @ 35/1.