Festival Antepost Tipping Competition 2020

[thorne365]

User - 100% Line - xPoints - xWins
Arkle - 31.65 - 82.55 - 3.44
JackieMoon33 - 33.33 - 80.25 - 3.21
Nwfb89 - 33.56 - 82.11 - 3.49
Vanilla - 37.59 - 86.56 - 3.92
BigChaang - 38.02 - 82.79 - 3.47
archie - 39.53 - 82.84 - 3.51
TheEagleHasLanded - 40.65 - 78.51 - 3.43
Aldie1988 - 42.02 - 81 - 3.55
taylorch1990 - 42.55 - 84.44 - 3.75
Rhinestone_Cowboy - 42.74 - 85.53 - 3.67
Big Bucks - 42.92 - 88.92 - 3.98
Birds Nest - 45.05 - 71.2 - 2.76
Missunited - 45.45 - 85.12 - 3.82
Kevloaf - 46.3 - 81.39 - 3.48
ComplyOrDie - 47.17 - 78.64 - 3.38
SeanRock - 47.62 - 80.67 - 3.54
Nortons who - 47.85 - 71.37 - 2.77
Cashew King - 48.08 - 75.1 - 3.06
harchibald - 49.02 - 74.29 - 2.85
TC2 - 50.76 - 63.36 - 2.5
Captain Chris - 52.63 - 73.94 - 3.12
TigerRolllllll - 52.63 - 83.88 - 3.74
thorne365 - 53.76 - 60.37 - 2.04
Istabraq - 55.25 - 80.25 - 3.5
Leman14 - 57.47 - 76.59 - 3.23
Middle_Of_March - 57.47 - 79.99 - 3.52
Can't Catch Me - 58.48 - 82.44 - 3.63
Faugheen_Machine - 58.82 - 78.41 - 3.43
somer1 - 59.17 - 76.96 - 3.31
Penzance - 59.17 - 75.21 - 3.33
Muswell - 60.98 - 80.78 - 3.43
The King Pimm - 62.5 - 71.56 - 2.75
Joleg - 62.5 - 81.36 - 3.57
Stormez - 63.69 - 67.58 - 2.52
MadeinJapan - 64.52 - 75.12 - 3.21
Gem1304 - 65.79 - 70 - 2.6
SamuelP - 65.79 - 82.7 - 3.67
Philg123 - 68.03 - 79.02 - 3.42
quevega - 68.49 - 68.99 - 2.89
aalowe9 - 68.49 - 82.65 - 3.74
The Beast - 69.44 - 77.66 - 3.47
Lostintranslation - 69.93 - 73.25 - 3.07
Imperial Commander - 70.42 - 79.62 - 3.47
Al Boum Photo - 70.92 - 77.91 - 3.37
luisgarciaisgod - 77.52 - 64.59 - 2.51
Ray - 81.3 - 80.2 - 3.56
lloydy - 86.21 - 76.72 - 3.43
darlojim - 87.72 - 77.88 - 3.39
Scooby91 - 92.59 - 76.38 - 3.33
Hurricane fly - 97.09 - 76.13 - 3.36
Liammet - 103.09 - 75.11 - 3.3
mcolebrook - 105.26 - 78.82 - 3.54
robith - 117.65 - 74.59 - 3.15
Eggs - 117.65 - 68.78 - 2.89
SizingJohn - 119.05 - 78.34 - 3.45
Saxon Warrior - 121.95 - 62.94 - 2.27
big H - 149.25 - 46.51 - 1.41
charlie - 204.08 - 69.68 - 3.04

xPoints and xWins should become more realistic when markets become more formed but you can see the relationship between them and a users strategy for picking selections. Price should be accurate based on current markets

[Kevloaf]

Superb.

Could you explain what the columns mean (or how to interpret xPoints xWins) as I'm not certain myself so I'm sure others feel the same.


Love this though already.

[Big Bucks]

Superb.

Could you explain what the columns mean (or how to interpret xPoints xWins) as I'm not certain myself so I'm sure others feel the same.


Love this though already.

Glad I wasnt the only one! Still dont get it...

[Istabraq]

It reads like dosage index and that took me years to nail...

[Faugheen_Machine]

it looks a bit like the XG used at football.

If I've read it correctly Big Bucks should be favourite to win.

[thorne365]

100% is the price (think betfair) - I ran 10k sims to see who scored the most points each sim
xPoints is the average points scored in each of those sims - this does not necessarily correlate directly with probability of winning due to large variance between each team (big prices of selections)
xWins is as above but simply an indicator of how many actual winners each entree might have

I'd expect xPoints and xWins to move more in line with 100% line when markets are fully formed (I'm doing some messy assignment of rest of expected market when simulating first 4 positions)

[thorne365]

it looks a bit like the XG used at football.

If I've read it correctly Big Bucks should be favourite to win.

Its ordered by prob of winning

[Istabraq]

100% is the price (think betfair)
xWins is as above but simply an indicator of how many actual winners each entree might have

It'll be a bleak Spring/Summer in my house if I only have 3.5 winners....

[thorne365]

It'll be a bleak Spring/Summer in my house if I only have 3.5 winners....

Thats because market runners are so unknown that i had to fudge prices in order to calculate 100% probs when simulating winners - should be higher when fields are confirmed. (I could have done this far better but would have required building a full view of expected fields which im far too lazy to do)

[thorne365]

Taking myself as an exampe:

thorne365 - 53.76 - 60.37 - 2.04

My prob of winning is high(ish) while my xPoints/xWinners are relatively low - this is because my strategy was to choose big priced selections (and hope for them to reduce in price). Because of the scoring system this means that when i do have a winner (and because I'm running loads of sims I will) I have a far higher change of winning the comp than if i had chosen conservatively. It also explains (conversely) why most of the time I wont have winners/high points

Apologies if its confusing

[thorne365]

User - 100% Line - xPoints - xWins
Arkle - 33.67 - 79.77 - 3.35
Aldie1988 - 35.59 - 82.07 - 3.61
JackieMoon33 - 36.76 - 77.77 - 3.13
TheEagleHasLanded - 37.04 - 78.45 - 3.43
Nwfb89 - 37.31 - 79.85 - 3.43
Big Bucks - 39.22 - 89.74 - 4.03
taylorch1990 - 40.65 - 81.75 - 3.65
BigChaang - 40.65 - 80.23 - 3.37
harchibald - 40.82 - 74.4 - 2.85
Vanilla - 41.49 - 84.88 - 3.87
Cashew King - 41.84 - 75.72 - 3.09
TC2 - 42.37 - 63.11 - 2.5
Rhinestone_Cowboy - 42.37 - 83.65 - 3.61
archie - 43.86 - 80.07 - 3.41
Kevloaf - 45.45 - 78.83 - 3.4
Missunited - 46.51 - 86.06 - 3.87
Nortons who - 46.73 - 68.64 - 2.66
Birds Nest - 48.54 - 69.07 - 2.68
ComplyOrDie - 49.75 - 76.38 - 3.31
SeanRock - 50.51 - 81.06 - 3.56
Captain Chris - 50.51 - 74.01 - 3.12
aalowe9 - 50.76 - 83.25 - 3.77
TigerRolllllll - 52.91 - 84.83 - 3.79
thorne365 - 56.18 - 57.79 - 1.94
Faugheen_Machine - 56.82 - 78.62 - 3.45
Gem1304 - 58.14 - 67.79 - 2.51
Istabraq - 58.48 - 77.94 - 3.43
Philg123 - 59.52 - 76.76 - 3.34
Leman14 - 59.52 - 73.62 - 3.14
Stormez - 59.88 - 65.27 - 2.44
SamuelP - 62.11 - 80.34 - 3.59
luisgarciaisgod - 65.79 - 64.79 - 2.54
Can't Catch Me - 65.79 - 79.59 - 3.53
The Beast - 66.23 - 75.03 - 3.38
The King Pimm - 69.93 - 69.45 - 2.66
MadeinJapan - 70.42 - 72.06 - 3.1
quevega - 71.94 - 66.67 - 2.8
lloydy - 71.94 - 76.91 - 3.44
Imperial Commander - 71.94 - 78.43 - 3.44
Middle_Of_March - 72.99 - 77.07 - 3.42
Ray - 74.07 - 80.78 - 3.58
somer1 - 74.63 - 75.23 - 3.26
Lostintranslation - 75.19 - 70.53 - 2.97
Joleg - 75.76 - 79.09 - 3.48
Scooby91 - 77.52 - 75.24 - 3.3
Muswell - 78.12 - 78.25 - 3.35
SizingJohn - 78.12 - 79.05 - 3.48
Al Boum Photo - 80.65 - 75.45 - 3.29
Penzance - 81.3 - 72.25 - 3.23
Hurricane fly - 93.46 - 74.07 - 3.29
Liammet - 96.15 - 76.04 - 3.34
mcolebrook - 101.01 - 79.53 - 3.56
darlojim - 105.26 - 75.81 - 3.32
Saxon Warrior - 108.7 - 63.72 - 2.29
Eggs - 117.65 - 66.59 - 2.81
robith - 128.21 - 72.61 - 3.1
big H - 133.33 - 46.71 - 1.4
charlie - 217.39 - 67.15 - 2.96

Updated with Champ Hurdle changes

[TigerRolllllll]

Does this move me up from outsider with no chance ....lol

Looked today and am on Tote 10 to follow leaderboard.....shock or what to be in top 10

Massive play to this forum since most of horses were ideas on here.....if I win, let’s have a big drink up on me

Sadly only half way

[Pendil]

Does this move me up from outsider with no chance ....lol

Looked today and am on Tote 10 to follow leaderboard.....shock or what to be in top 10

Massive play to this forum since most of horses were ideas on here.....if I win, let’s have a big drink up on me

Sadly only half way

Good luck with 10 to follow. A half case of margaux would do me fine.

[Kevloaf]

Does this move me up from outsider with no chance ....lol

Looked today and am on Tote 10 to follow leaderboard.....shock or what to be in top 10

Massive play to this forum since most of horses were ideas on here.....if I win, let’s have a big drink up on me

Sadly only half way

Well done!

[The King Pimm]

I’m not sure how the table/index works but it’s currently middle table mediocre for me??
How does the rating work??