Willie's Bumper Horses

[Spectre]

Willie has a lot of once or twice raced Bumper Horses at the moment, and I can't help thinking that one or two of them may be kept back for the Champion Bumper via a couple of decent Bumpers elsewhere.

These are the ones I can think of off the top of my head, so there's probably others too:

Classic Getway
Grangeclare West
Dysart Diamond
Dark Raven
Champ Kiely
Adamantly Chosen
Brandy Love
Belle Metal

When you think he'll have the usual intake of Pointers, Stores, and French Breds, to go to war with too, it wouldn't be a total shock if one or two of these hung around in Bumpers to 'further their education'.

Belle Metal and Dark Raven are only four, so could easily have another season over hurdles. Chemp Kieley is 5 and owned by the Mastersons, so given their recent history with the race he could be a candidate. And Chevely may be tempted to hold one of their pair back given they're both still 5.

Any thoughts on likely candidates if Willie does decide to hold one or two back to Bumpers?

[The Fellow]

i'm sure Patrick Mullins mentioned hurdles for Classic Getaway later in the year , found this quote which seems to rule out a Bumper season , but you know Mullins

He is a beautiful-looking horse and I think he was a little bit more expensive than a Rolls-Royce Phantom! But I'm pretty sure Mrs Thomson will get more fun out of him than a Rolls Royce. He's a big baby and that's why I was keen to teach him and get him to stride out. He is a big baby at home for a five-year-old who had a point to point run and he's not a bumper horse. I imagine he'll go jumping later in the season - he wouldn't have run only the ground was so wet and we said we'd get a run into him. Willie didn't rush him and let him settle in - he didn't have to run this season but it just happened with the weather. I think he'll continue to improve mentally.

[Spectre]

As you said 'but you know Mullins'.

Reading that quote, he says they are going to skip bumpers, which isn't usually Willie's way, and he's just run in one!

He is then described as a baby that needs an education.

I'm not sure that statement from Patrick can entirely be relied on. He's also out of Classic Cliche mare, so Bumpers are hardly fanciful.

He'll probably start out over hurdles as Patrick says, but I'm not completely convinced.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

'Bring On The Night' was sold to Joe Donnelly and sent to Willie Mullins this time last year and will only be five come March 2022. His pedigree suggests he could be suited to bumper races but connections may have other plans.

[Saxon Warrior]

I have been collating stats on Willie Mullins which I am working through at the moment.

Regarding the Bumper - Willie has won it 11 times.

In the last 10 years he has had 5 winners, though one was handed to him from Gordon this year, in those figures and Sir Gerhard's prep was all down to Gordon.

In the last 10 years he has ran 37 horses in the Festival Bumper.

8 of the 37 had a prior season Bumper debut - none went on to win the Festival Bumper.

2021
2nd - Kilcruit debuted the March prior when stabled with Tony Mullins - not Willie.

8th - Ramillies ran for Willie in the December Leopardstown Christmas Bumper, then started back in the same race 12 months later, last season.

2020
11th - Five Bar Brian debuted for another trainer in a bumper, 2 seasons before coming 11th in this race for Willie.

2016
4th - Castle Sforza ran in the Fairyhouse bumper at Easter in the prior season (won that race)

8th - Very Much won a Punchestown Festival Bumper, before running 8th in the following seasons Fez Bumper.

15th - Turcagua ran at the Fairyhouse April meeting a year earlier coming 3rd in that debut.

2013
16th - Sizing Tennessee was 4th in the Easter Fairyhouse Bumper in April the prior season.

2012
3rd - Pique Sous was third in the April before in a Fairyhouse Bumper.

So, of Willies 5 wins in the last decade, all of them debuted in Bumpers, the season they won it.

Willie ran the 8 above in bumpers after ONE prior season Bumper, the closest he got was with Kilcruit who he didn't train the previous year.

Of his winners in the more distant past 1 of the 6 other winners he had did run in a prior season bumper.

That was Missed That in 2005.
He ran at the Punchestown Festival on 1st May and finished 13th on that debut.

The other one to note was his 2000 winner, Joe Cullen who debuted on 6th June and won at Tralee.
Never ran again before Cheltenham and won as a 5yo there at 14/1.

The Champion Bumper is a different beast to what it was 20 years ago, a lot of very expensive geldings now run in them, and can be conditioned over several runs.

Overall, part of my conclusion on Willie's Champion Bumper trends would be,

He has won 9 Champion Bumpers with 5yo's and two with 6yo's including the 6yo he inherited from Gordon.
So one trend would be a Willie Mullins 5yo winner.

The other would be that he has won 10 of his 11 bumpers with horses who debuted in the same season.

So on those two trends I would watch out for his 4yo bumpers generally debuting in December or January (as a 5yo).

One last thought would be
- I am not really considering any of Willie's 2020/21 season bumper winners staying in bumpers, and then winning the Festival Bumper - but if I was, it would not be one that had ran twice already.

That doesn't seem to have crossed his mind before.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Interesting stats there Saxon. Given the poor record of second season bumper horses it's likely we haven't seen next year's winner yet. I've looked through the recent WPM trained winners and runners up and there doesn't seem to be a favoured route to the Champion Bumper apart from some of them picking up a few Euro's at the Dublin Racing Festival en route.

[Saxon Warrior]

Interesting stats there Saxon. Given the poor record of second season bumper horses it's likely we haven't seen next year's winner yet. I've looked through the recent WPM trained winners and runners up and there doesn't seem to be a favoured route to the Champion Bumper apart from some of them picking up a few Euro's at the Dublin Racing Festival en route.

There isn't a defined route, for his Festival bumper winners save for most of them starting in December of their winning year (or January), and winners from his stable are usually 4 now, and 5yo at Cheltenham.

Willie doesn't kick on with his season until the middle of November so that makes sense.

The 10 year trends for Willie are something I am working on now, for all races, its an awful lot of work for those races he does well in, and I'm determined to find some useful facts if there are any, for each if those key races that he regularly wins.

[knockando]

The 10 year trends for Willie are something I am working on now, for all races, its an awful lot of work for those races he does well in, and I'm determined to find some useful facts if there are any, for each if those key races that he regularly wins.

Pulling together a decade of Willie trends across all races sounds like a mammoth undertaking Saxon. Good luck with it - sure I’m speaking on behalf of many that very excited to see your analysis if and whenever you get there!

[The Fellow]

monumental task Saxon , i tried searching through Gordon Elliott winners to find key races , that took ages without any real hidden gems , maybe your method of stats will be more fruitful , still a great big task

[Saxon Warrior]

I've already listed all his runners in all the races at the Festival for 10 years and all their seasonal runs pre-Fez.

I think I am going to have to go deeper than that, and maybe layer in prior year form to see where they were at, at this time of year, to see who fits the bill from this season.

Its more work, all manual, than I thought.

But my team, the "Foxes Never Quit", and neither do I.

One thing I've learned re the Coral Cup is that Willie has a pretty awful record, with a lot of "afterthought" runners in it.
I'm certainly less keen on his runners for that race already.

[Lobos]

Yeah, I always put a line through Willie's in the Coral Cup. Re the Handicaps, County Hurdle and Martin Pipe are his races. Anything else he has a desperate record in .

[The Fellow]

yeah that was why i went down the route of checking previous races from Festival winners or placers , there are loads of runners that run year in and out and never do anything , maybe just social runners , then there is the likes of Giggy and JP who fire the scattergun at races , jeez its a huge amount to go through

[Saxon Warrior]

I think the most runners Willie has had in the last 10 years of a race is 37.

Not far off 15% of the runners that actually ran in that race, in the last decade.

[The Fellow]

only 37 , you finished yet ?

[Saxon Warrior]

only 37 , you finished yet ?

I've reviewed the races that each if the 37 horses ran in before the Festival they performed at.

Not scratched the surface yet, on some other thoughts I've got though.

I've been on holiday in a WiFi free property (who knew they still existed?) for 5 days.

Even struggling with mobile phone data reception.

Back home tomorrow.