Cheltenham Festival Preview Nights 2020

[mayo]

https://youtu.be/g1FghTx4kec

Ruby just telling it like it is. Min disappointed him a couple of times at the festival and he never won the Albert Bartlett despite having plenty of fancies in it. It is a hard race to win and there have been plenty of boilovers.

[jack1092]

Sounds like people in here would prefer Ruby to just aimlessly tip up Mullin's horses.....pointless nah?

[Cash Back]

Off to the PP one tonight in Dublin, not sure who's on bar Nina so far so may not be up to much.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Sounds like people in here would prefer Ruby to just aimlessly tip up Mullin's horses.....pointless nah?

Exactly my thoughts Jack. It's as if he is only allowed to suggest WPM horses are going to win at the festival.

Maybe he should just tell people what they want to hear

[Istabraq]

Must be due a live stream, assume the Dublin one tonight will ?

[Big Bucks]

Exactly my thoughts Jack. It's as if he is only allowed to suggest WPM horses are going to win at the festival.

Maybe he should just tell people what they want to hear

I dont have a penny on Monkfish and my main danger going by the market, soo music to my ears if his comments are legit, but I just found it very strange as there seems to be a lot of buzz about it (especially in Ireland) and has been heavily backed into 2nd fav. For him to completely rule it out, I'm only going by a quote maybe I need to watch any video to see how to interpret it.

Then Min not sure again why playing down its chances. I like other people to tip up other connections, but at same time suspicious of any smoke screens of one in thier own back yard...

[qzy]

Cheltenham Festival Preview Notes
27/02/2020//by Matt Bisogno
I was asked to sit on the panel for a Cheltenham Festival preview last night. Being the diligent dutiful type I both agreed to do it and prepared some notes. Rather than keep those notes to myself and the small group of people in the room, it makes sense to share them on here.

These notes represent my current thinking and, while I have bet a good many of the horses mentioned, I reserve the right to tip and/or back something else come Festival week! Assuming that makes sense and seems fair enough, here is what I had prepared:

Cheltenham Grade 1 Notes
Overall: Weather forecast is wet, ground is already soft, heavy in places

Tuesday
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
5 of last 7 won by the Irish (4 to Willie Mullins, only one clear fav, & one jt fav)

Asterion Forlonge has much stronger form than Shishkin, having bolted up in the Chanelle Pharma Novices’ Hurdle. That is perennially the best novice hurdle run before the Fez. He’s 5/1 and I’ve backed him.

Shishkin obvious ‘could be anything’ material. I was at Huntingdon where he beat Shan Blue in the Listed Sidney Banks. Nothing has run from that race since, though there were some 140-odd rated novices well beaten. His Newbury win has not worked out at all (all eight to run since have finished out of the frame). He’s just too short on what he’s shown in public.

Any of Chantry House, Sporting John if he runs here, and especially Abacadabras would be unsurprising winners.

One thing to note – this is the race above all others where bookies battle for custom. You’ll get money back as cash if you lose, extra places, enhanced odds and so on. Shop around and get some money in the tank: there are 27 further battles!

Arkle
Willie Mullins has won four of the last five Arkles, Nicky Henderson three of the other four going back to 2012. Mullins has Cash Back, mightily impressive in a couple of novice chases before running HdB’s Notebook to ½ length in the Irish Arkle. Rumour was that Notebook bolted on the way to post there; in spite of that I’d be happy to take Cash Back at more than twice the price.

Notebook is a dual G1 scorer, with narrow verdicts over both Cash Back and Fakir d’Oudairies. He’s done nothing wrong and is a worthy favourite, but he has little in hand over a couple of his rivals.

The Hendo runner is Mister Fisher, but he looks as though he needs a small field to be at his best. Pick of the Brits might be Olly Murphy’s Brewin’upastorm. He’s proved little in two small field novice chase wins, but his hurdling level – close 4th in Ballymore, 2nd in Mersey Novices, both G1 – last season shows his class.

Champion Hurdle
Against Hendo squad: if you’ve got four Champion Hurdle horses, you’ve probably got none.

Epatante whacked in the mares’ novices’ hurdle last year, won a weak G1 at Christmas (Silver Streak second, other joint fav pulled up); Pentland Hills beaten both starts this term, 4yo form seems a distant memory (5yo’s Katchit and Espoir d’Allen won this but both had won their most recent starts convincingly).

Honeysuckle was underwhelming last time, for all that the second (Darver Star) is an improver. She may well go to the Mares’ Hurdle;

The pair I’d take chances on are Darver Star and especially Supasundae. Darver represents last year’s winning trainer, Gavin Cromwell, and has improved from a mark of 104 a year ago to 152 currently. That gives him seven pounds or so to find but who says he’s finished improving?

Supasundae doesn’t win much but he’s run in G1 company the last 14 times, finishing out of the first three just twice. A fast run two miles looks much more his thing than a slowly run three in the Stayers’ and I make him a very solid each way bet at around 14/1.

Cilaos Emery’s jumping is not up to scratch but he has a mighty engine; if he’s supplemented as expected and puts in a good round he’ll go close.

Mares’ Hurdle
Three horse race: Benie, Honey and Roksana. Trip looks more appropriate for Honeysuckle than the Champion Hurdle and she’s a sporting bet to beat the favourite; but it’s not a race I’ll be getting involved with.

Wednesday
Ballymore
Envoi Allen is a legit fav: last year’s Champion Bumper winner is a dual G1 hurdler this term. Very short, though, against impressive unexposed horses, most notably Sporting John whose three unbeaten runs include a defeat of subsequent Classic Novices’ Hurdle winner, Harry Senior. The Classic is the best UK novice hurdle run before the Festival, and that makes SJ a serious tool. 6/1 e/w NRNB looks a bet, and perhaps in the ‘without the fav’ markets.

RSA Chase
Favourite Champ is a bit of a nutter: he nearly took the wrong course two back at Newbury, then he fell when leading at the second last most recently. He’s got bundles of ability but hasn’t looked quite the finished article yet. Opposable at the price.

Minella Indo was a dual G1 winner at this trip over hurdles including as a 50/1 shocker in the Albert Bartlett, but has been less impressive over fences to date. He’s been trained up to the race and the vibes are strong.

Strong stayers and mudlarks Copperhead and Sam Brown interest more at the prices. Both ran in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last time, the former winner, the latter pulling up. The former’s trainer is toying with the NH Chase, the latter’s trainer with Aintree. NRNB is the way to play then in a race where the top of the market has a fragile look to it.

QMCC
A fascinating race which could be the scrap of the meeting. Altior, at 10, is not the horse he was, but he’s not far off it judged on his recent Game Spirit win.

Against him are two rising stars, Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi. Defi has a great Cheltenham record and has won his last three, all by fairly narrow margins. Chacun has a verdict over Defi from Punchestown last May, but it might be dangerous to take that form literally.

Bumper
Appreciate It is incredibly short given the unexposed nature of so many of these. He was 3rd behind Envoi Allen in his point debut and bolted up in a Grade 2 last time. If you were being hyper critical he didn’t find a huge amount off the bridle there but he already had the race well won before being ridden.

I was hugely impressed by Panic Attack on her debut at Market Rasen in a Listed race. She beat some solid UK fillies by ten lengths and will get both the fillies’ and the 4yos’ allowances at Cheltenham. She’s changed stables from Willie Mullins to David Pipe, a negative for me, but she must have a big chance.

Thursday
Marsh Novices’ Chase
A social day where winners are hard to come by, for me at least. The first of a couple of interim distance races where which horses will run is uncertain.

Itchy Feet represents the Scilly Isles form which Defi Du Seuil brought to win last year’s race. But…

7 of 9 won by the Irish.

7 of 9 were 4/1 or shorter.

7 of 9 won LTO.

Willie Mullins has won four.

Mullins has both Allaho and Faugheen, the former half the age of the latter! 12 year olds don’t win Championship races, still less novice championship races. But Faugheen is not your average 12yo novice. He’ll absolutely bring the house down if he wins, and I’d say he has a pretty good chance.

But if you like either Allaho or Faugheen then you have to like Easy Game as well. The third string to the Mullins bow beat the former and was a very close second to the latter. He lacks a bit of experience but will be waited with and can pick up the pieces off what will probably be strong fractions.

Ryanair
Another case of who will turn up. A Plus Tard is more likely here and is a short enough favourite. If you watch last year’s Novices’ Handicap Chase you’ll understand why, but this is a different level.

Min has rock solid form and his 2m4f record is 1211, including two G1 wins. His form is better than A Plus Tard yet he’s a bigger price. He’s been second to Altior twice in the QMCC and this longer trip looks the answer now.

Frodon has to be kept onside after the fairytale last year. Campaigned away from Cheltenham this season – because he’s too high in the weights to contest the handicap he previously did – he looks sure to run his race again.

Aso was 3rd in this in 2017 at 40/1, 2nd in this last year at 33/1, and is currently 33/1 for the race this year. His form isn’t great this season but it can be taken on trust he’ll be ready for this assignment, and he’s worth a small each way interest.

Stayers’
Assuming Benie Des Dieux goes a different route, it’s hard to see past Paisley Park. He’s been the dominant stayer since running midfield in the 2018 Albert Bartlett and improved his unbeaten run to seven in the Cleeve last time. There he won by a little more than a length, having won the same race by 12L the year before.

I think he’ll probably win – I hope he does, for Andrew Gemmill, Aidan and Emma – but I’ll be betting something at a much, much bigger price each way. The one I like is City Island, last year’s Ballymore winner.

City Island has taken the Big Buck’s ‘not very good at chasing so reverting to hurdling’ route here, and his trainer Martin Brassil is a shrewdie. I backed him on 17th March last year for this race, at 22/1. He’s since been as big as 40/1 and is still available at 14’s eleven months later. Luckily the trainer is shrewder than I am!

Emitom is the wild card. He ran RSA favourite Champ to 3 lengths in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree last April. Since then he was whacked in the Relkeel on his seasonal debut before running away with the Grade 2 Rendlesham at Haydock 11 days ago. A genuine three miler, it’s possible this won’t be run quickly enough for him.

Friday
Triumph
A race that looks likely to cut up. Recency bias has shunted Solo to the head of the market but the visual impression of his Adonis win last weekend is not backed up by the figures. It was the slowest of the two mile heats on the card, and others have stronger collateral credentials in any case.

This probably rests between Allmankind and Goshen, the former already a G1 winner at Chepstow. He’s headstrong and runs from the front, something that both Solo and Goshen can do also.

Goshen is unbeaten in six – three flat handicaps and three hurdles – most recently kicking Nordano to the kerb in nonchalant fashion. That one has since won a handicap by 16 lengths off 127, while fourth placed Homer also won a handicap next time off 117. Goshen doesn’t need to lead, as he showed when tracking the pace before winning by seven lengths in a handicap at Nottingham.

He’s won his last six races by 12L, 9L, 7L (on the flat); then 23L, 34L and 11L over hurdles. He does jump to the right, which is a worry; but he looks like a machine to me.

Aspire Tower is probably the best of the Irish, and he’s probably not good enough.

Goshen for me.

Albert Bartlett
A race to tilt at windmills. The six-year average winning SP is just north of 26/1, with individual scorers at 50/1 and 33/1 twice during that time.

The reason, I think, is that this is a very different test from the usual six runner Graded races run through the season. The big priced winners have tended to get outrun towards the end of such contests, whereas this more attritional setup favours those perennial placers.

Five of those six winners were beaten last time out, the winner – Unowhatimeanharry – scoring in handicap company.

If that theory holds any water, the likes of Lord Royal and Fury Road are interesting.

Lord Royal was second in the same Clonmel novice that Minella Indo was second in last year. He was a big sectional talking horse prior to Clonmel and those of us who backed him on the back of that chat are clinging to the Indo thread now! He’s 33/1 now, same price as I backed him.

Fury Road is ‘only’ 16/1, having been the beaten favourite in the G1 Nathanial Lacy at the Dublin Racing Festival. Martello Tower was beaten there prior to a 14/1 score in the potato race, and this lad is definitely worth another chance.

Cobbler’s Way, like Fury Road owned by Gigginstown, was second in the same race and is another worth a play here. He’s entered in the Ballymore as well so 14/1 NRNB is the way to go.

Don’t be afraid to take a chance at a big price, and don’t be disappointed if a shortie beats you: they can win, they’re just often poor value.

Gold Cup
An open year as 7/2 the field implies. I think it’ll be at least 5/1 bar one on the day, with the one being either Al Boum Photo – the reigning champ for Willie Mullins – or Santini, the pretender trained by Nicky Henderson, depending on how their respective weeks have gone.

Much was made of Santini’s jumping in the aftermath of his dogged, and quietly impressive, Cotswold Chase win; less has been said of the leaping of the Al Boum, who has come down three times in his career, to Santini’s none.

Santini has had a much better prep this year than when second in the RSA last season, and he looks every inch the strong-staying scrapper. I’d take him in a match with ABP every time.

Delta Work is an interesting up-and-comer but he looks like he needs quickish ground. Form on soft or slower reads 33243134; form on quicker than soft reads 212111111. If it did dry out, his recent Grade 1 brace puts him in the mix though I’m still not completely convinced by his stamina.

I’m not sold on Lostintranslation, because of stamina reservations, though I may have that wrong. Couldn’t back him at the price.

Clan Des Obeaux wouldn’t be for me either: I think he wants more of a speed test. It wouldn’t be a shock if Presenting Percy was in the mix off a slightly more conventional prep – albeit in defeat – though he’s not really for me either.

I’m a Santini fan, have backed him accordingly, and will be cheering him from the inebriated depths of the Brown Bear in Leman St.



Handicaps
Irish runners have won 24 of the 51 handicaps in the last five years, from 295 runners. That’s better than 8% win rate. UK runners have won 27 of 51, from 854 runners. That’s about 3% win rate.

Those exiting a Graded race last time won at better than 6%, those who race in Listed or lower last time won at 3%.

Those exiting an Irish Graded race won at 8.75%, though exiting a UK Graded race won at 4.5%.

Those outside the top eight in a Graded race last time won just 4 of the 26 to run in Graded company LTO. Three of those four were non-completions.

Those who ran in an Irish Grade 1/2/3 race last time out, finishing in the first eight, won 13 Cheltenham Festival handicaps in the last five years at a rate of 10.5%, for a Starting Price profit of 18.5 points. (Over 40 points at BSP).

I’ve had one bet, A Great View in the Pertemps. Ran an excellent trial in the recent Punchestown qualifier. Was eight lengths sixth last year but handicapper has given him 142, 5 more than his Irish mark. Not a strong fancy by any stretch of the imagination.



Cross Country
Easysland is an interesting alternative to Tiger Roll, and is unbeaten in his last six, all cross country’s including over course and distance.

Emmanual Clayeux knows how to win on this course. His 12 runners since 2017 have won two and been placed a further five times. The winners, Diesel D’Allier and Urgent de Gregaine, both line up here, as does last time out winner Arlequin d’Allier.

This 10 year old is making his Cheltenham debut, having pocketed €45,000 for that last day win.

What is interesting is that both Diesel d’Allier and Urgent De Gregaine WON on their Cheltenham debuts. This fellow is 33/1.

[qzy]

Preview night notes & quotes
More added now
Panel
Denis Kirwan (MC)
Davy Russell
Andy McNamara
Gary O'Brien
Gavin Lynch
Brian Flanagan
Rob Catterson

Supreme Novice Hurdle
Davy Russell

"Envoi Allen left in only precautionary. I cannot understand how Asterion Forlonge is double the price of Shishkin based on what they've done."
"Envoi Allen is just a better horse than Abacadabras. Simple."

Gary O'Brien
"If so had to back one at the prices it would be Abacadbras, real solid form and should be bang in the mix."

Gavin Lynch
"I'd be all against Abacadabras at the track. Cheltenham tends to get travelly types beaten. If you got 3/1 Shishkin in the day you would be doing alright."

Arkle Novice Chase
Davy Russell
"Notebook's jumping is exceptional. He nearly ended up in Wicklow before even starting at Leopardstown LTO. If he starts those antics at Cheltenham he'll make it difficult on himself. They're talking about a hood."

Gary O'Brien
"Cash Back looks abit flakey. Might get taken on for the lead. Notebook and Fakir D'Oudaries set the standard."

Andy McNamara
"I've a fear of Notebook jumping out to the right. Cash Back looks a proper two miler. Danny Mullins will give you a real run for your money."

Brian Flanagan
"I'm going to maybe give Brewinupastorm a squeak."

Davy Russell
"Don't do it !" ��

Gavin Lynch
"I'm hearing Fakir D'Oudaries is working very well at home."

Rob Catterson
"Fakir D'Oudaries the banker of the week. He's head and shoulders above the rest."

Champion Hurdle
Davy Russell
"Not So Sleepy will run. He will go like the bloody clappers and whatever catches him might be doing well. Could be huge value each way."

"I ride Coeur Sublime. If you were to see him at home lately you would think he would win the Champion Hurdle. He's had a wind op since his last run."

Gary O'Brien
"I think Pentland Hills could put in a career best here. Nico may have to play his hand late. Almost like Paul Carberry on Harchibald. I think he may have had a wee wind op since Haydock."

Davy Russell on talks of Envoi Allen being supplemented
"I wasn't involved in any talks of it anyway. I think if the Coronavirus was going to call off the Wednesday, they might chance it." ��

Brian Flanagan
"It's a terrible Champion Hurdle. They should definitely by running Honeysuckle in this."

Gavin Lynch
"13 months ago, I got a text to back Darver Star in a maiden hurdle and it finished fourth. Then it goes and wins a handicap off 105. Just shows how much a horse can improve." ��

Rob Catterson
"Supersundae represents the real value in the Champion Hurdle."

Mares Hurdle
Davy Russell
"I don't know if Benie Des Dieux is as good at Cheltenham as anywhere else."

"If the best trainer that ever put on a pair of shoes (Willie Mullins) runs a mare like Benie Des Dieux in the mares hurdle, I think there maybe something amiss."

"If the two mares run against each other in this (Benie Des Dieux vs Honeysuckle). I think Honeysuckle will beat her."

Gary O'Brien
"I would back Benie Des Dieux to beat Paisley Park in the stayers but not to beat Honeysuckle in the mares."

On a second general election ���� ����

Davy Russell

"For the sake of Horse Racing, do NOT vote Sinn Fein. I might run in Cork South."��

Ryanair Chase
Gary O'Brien

"Riders on The Storm is three from three for Nigel Twiston Davies. He looks really progressive and might be good enough if Ascot hasn't left it's mark."

Davy Russell
"A Plus Tard looks solid and wouldn't be out of place in the Queen Mother."

Gavin Lynch
"Min has been to Cheltenham three times and has also seen Altior's backside three times. A Plus Tard for me."

Champion Bumper
Davy Russell on Appreciate It

"Ohh boy is he a good horse".

Davy Russell to Rob Catterson
"Under what circumstances could you advise punters to back Duc De Genievres for the Ryanair. He hasn't a hope in hell."

Davy Russell

"Gordon's filly that won at Gowran might have a squeak." Queensbrook

Stayers Hurdle
Gary O'Brien

"If Benie Des Dieux runs here, I will back her to beat Paisley Park."

Andy McNamara
"Paisley Park reminds me very much of Big Bucks. Gets a nudge, gets a nudge and eventually and picks up. Won't be beaten I'd say."

Marsh Chase
Davy Russell on Allaho

"I tried my best to follow him at Fairyhouse and couldn't get near him. He's a very talented horse and I'd be confident if he ran here he'd win."

Andrew McNamara
"Allaho looks made for the Marsh Chase. I'd like to see him run there."

Davy Russell
"Samcro's homework shall we say is good." ��

Andrew McNamara on Faugheen

"I'd say it's likely he WILL run at Cheltenham. Why wouldn't he?"

RSA & Marsh Chase
Gary O'Brien

"The RSA is all about Minella Indo. Hopefully Allaho goes for the Marsh Chase and we can back them seperately."

Gavin Lynch

"I like Allaho if he goes for the Marsh Chase. Copperhead would have a real chance if he goes RSA."

National Hunt Chase

Brian Flanagan

"Carefully Selected fell in the last day. Champagne Classic is one of my naps of the week."

Davy Russell on Carefully Selected
"I don't he'll get around."

Triumph Hurdle

Gary O'Brien
"I liked Aspire Tower but I'm gone very watery since the Solo win on Saturday."

Davy Russell
"I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid on Sir Psycho."

Triumph Hurdle
Brian Flanagan

"The English do win the odd few races at Cheltenham and they might win this with Solo."

Albert Bartlett Novice
Brian Flanagan

"Monkfish looks the stand out bet of the week."

Gavin Lynch
"Gears doesn't usually win this race. I'd be worried about stamina for Thyme Hill."

Gary O'Brien
"Extraordinary confidence for Monkfish in the Mullins camp. On value grounds Thyme Hill looks the bet at 9/2."

Handicaps

Davy Russell

"Relegate has snuck into the Pertemps nicely."
I'd say Canardier is a talented."

Davy on Galvin
"I was very disappointed with him behind Ronald Pump. He's worked grand lately."

on Chosen Mate
"I can't figure him out. Don't know what trip he wants. Everytime you fancy him he flops, everytime you don't he wins."

The Storyteller

"There is nothing up the slieve with him. What you see is what you get."

Brian Flanagan

1. Simply The Bets
2. Column Of Fire (Martin Pipe)
3. Aramon (County Hurdle)

Rob Catterson
"There has been a few quid around the Offaly shops for Shane Lowry's horse in the boodles."

Rob Catterson

1. Precious Cargo (Novice Handicap)
2. Relegate (Pertemps)
3. Tronador (Boodles)

Gary O'Brien

"The stand out would be Relegate off bottom weight. She looks one of the best handicapped horses going to Cheltenham."

Andrew McNamara

"Charles Byrnes horse Thosedaysaregone could have more improvement to come."

Charity Bets

Gary O'Brien - Minella Indo (RSA)
Davy Russell - Defi Du Seuil (CC)
Brian Flanagan - Asterion Forlonge
Andrew McNamara - Honeysuckle wherever she goes.

Gold Cup ��

Rob Catterson
"If I had to pick one horse that can't win at Cheltenham, it's Santini. He's just so slow."

Gavin Lynch

"I'd be all over Al Boum Photo. Willie is the master and will have him ready. I'm going to have a decent bet here."

Brian Flanagan

"It's a game of opinions. Any horse that wins a King George by 27 lengths shouldn't be 9/1 for a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Clan Des Obeaux looks value."

Andrew McNamara

"Delta Work won with 10 pounds in hand at Leopardstown. Jack was as excited as I've ever seen him."

Davy Russell

"Presenting Percy needs to improve and that's it. It's a brilliant Gold Cup but Delta Work is the horse I think. "

"Don't be quick to dismiss Bristol De Mai who finished 3rd last year."

[kinloch brae]

Cheltenham Festival Preview Notes
27/02/2020//by Matt Bisogno

Should we know this guy?

I read as far as the comment about the Mares being a three-horse race. Roksana would have been hammered last year and hasn't progressed. If they both turn up it is a two-horse race. Any 'expert' can work that out. Even those who might be prone to concentrate too much on stats.

[jack1092]

Should we know this guy?

I read as far as the comment about the Mares being a three-horse race. Roksana would have been hammered last year and hasn't progressed. If they both turn up it is a two-horse race. Any 'expert' can work that out. Even those who might be prone to concentrate too much on stats.

You're gonna get shouted at for quoting all of that....jsut quote the bit you have a problem with

[kinloch brae]

You're gonna get shouted at for quoting all of that....jsut quote the bit you have a problem with

I think i'll survive, but thanks for warning.

[qzy]

Should we know this guy?

I read as far as the comment about the Mares being a three-horse race. Roksana would have been hammered last year and hasn't progressed. If they both turn up it is a two-horse race. Any 'expert' can work that out. Even those who might be prone to concentrate too much on stats.

Matt Bisogno runs geegeez.co.uk, was on the panel at a preview last night

[Faugheen_Machine]

William hill preview starts at 7:30 tonight. Available on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube

[Quevega]

William hill preview starts at 7:30 tonight. Available on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube

Leonna as well (and she's had the crimpers out)

[punterorplonker]

How is this not live! ........they have no idea about the Epatante drift!