Which horse for 2022 currently priced at 20/1+ havent you backed yet, but like?

[Spectre]

I’m not convinced his form stands the rest of time NC. Ferny Hollow didn’t settle in his first bumper and pulled his chance away. It wasn’t until the Champion Bumper we saw the best of that one, when he was able to settle off an end to end gallop. I think he’s better judged through Ragnar Lodbook and Wide Receiver, and both are 25-30 lengths behind Appreciate It, which is a form line that leaves him a lot to find. He’s lightly raced so can improve, but he wouldn’t be for me at this early stage. I’d want to see more. I also wonder given his age whether they may just get on with it over fences now too. I can’t remember whether he was good scopey type and built for a fence though, so I may be barking up the wrong tree there.

[That Horse]

Some excerpts from Willie Mullins's column on sporting Life, not all relate to Cheltenham but I've pasted the one about the King George seeing as some on here have mentioned that race in this thread;

Echoes in Rain She’s a very busy mare in her own head but is settling and maturing all the time. With another summer’s grass under her belt I think she could come back and be something special.

Allaho
We’re possibly looking at the King George for Allaho but I thought he ran a little flat at Punchestown when second to Chacun and I wouldn’t really rule out two miles for him either. He’s going to be a very adaptable horse.

Flat racing
We always try and find something for Royal Ascot and will look to do so again while MC Muldoon might be a horse for the Sky Bet Ebor.

EDIT - I know none of the above are above 20/1 in their respective races but they may affect how likely you'll part with your money to back something that is 20/1+

[Lobos]

Very interesting re his comments about Allaho. Agree he ran very flat and I fully expect him to be running over the minimum again before making any decisions.

[FinalFurlong91]

I think hed take plenty of beating in the king George if its decent ground

[Ice]

I think hed take plenty of beating in the king George if its decent ground

I agree and that's where my money would be going, if he did go there.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

25/1 Skybet RAB for Alloha to win both the King George and Ryanair Chase which is probably about right

[Saxon Warrior]

He has won 4 out of 12 over hurdles and fences.

He found a new level in the Ryanair, capable of elite performances.

Something holds me back from thinking he is going on a 100% successful Grade 1 run, next season.

Just a feeling, I may be wrong, but Willie seems to still be playing with a mix of 2M, 3M and mid-trip options.

It takes a special horse to be good over all trips in one season.

Maybe its the trip mix musings that is making me reticent to back him for anything this far out.

[Hurdles or chasing]

He has won 3 out of 12 over hurdles and fences.

He found a new level in the Ryanair, capable of elite performances.

Something holds me back from thinking he is going on a 100% successful Grade 1 run, next season.

Just a feeling, I may be wrong, but Willie seems to still be playing with a mix of 2M, 3M and mid-trip options.

It takes a special horse to be good over all trips in one season.

Maybe its the trip mix musings that is making me reticent to back him for anything this far out.

Hes also a slow starter with losing his first race of the season for the last 3 years. Others might not but can usually count on Bet365 to push him out if the same happens again.

[Spectre]

Possibly Mullins thinks that ideally Energumene wants two and half, and is perhaps the better of the two horses. I also think Tony Bloom would prefer to take on Allaho or the rest of the Ryanair contenders, rather than Shiskin, who will eat anyting he comes up against over two miles for breakfast.

[Saxon Warrior]

Possibly Mullins thinks that ideally Energumene wants two and half, and is perhaps the better of the two horses. I also think Tony Bloom would prefer to take on Allaho or the rest of the Ryanair contenders, rather than Shiskin, who will eat anyting he comes up against over two miles for breakfast.

If SHISHKIN carries on his electric form then Willie may not wish to waste two big bullets taking him on, and rely on CPS only

If SHISHKIN shows any weakness pre-March then Willie could double up.

A lot will depend on Shishkin and also on the outcome - if CPS and Allaho meet mid-season.

I am not convinced Allaho will run up a string of 1111's through the season.

[Quevega]

Willie will likely bring one of them over for the tingle creek, or more likely the clarence house, if he's late bringing them out as is often the case.

[charlie]

Bit of an odd one from me because I don't tend to contribute to the Albert Bartlett thread pre Xmas, let alone in May, but Ramillies @ 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett stands out like a sore thumb. No question he's held in extremely high regard by Willie, but he's clearly not a 2 miler, which makes sense given he's by Shantou who produces horses that stay and stay and stay. I like this bet for 4 reasons.

One, his bare results look shit which leave juice in the price.

Two, he was campaigned as if he was top drawer and every single race of note unfolded tactically in exactly the same way - travelled into contention like a very good horse, then because he'd been expending more energy than he would have liked was beaten by large aggregate distances.

Three, the Mullins/Donnelly factor will see this horses prices contract significantly more than it should, especially if he wins a facile maiden hurdle, which makes it more of an attractive ante post proposition.

Four, I've said in my diary ante post bets this far out have to factor in the Irish dominance. Willie/Gordon/Henry win over 50% of races at the festival, so for bets this far out I like siding with one of them.

Ultimately, the horse is held in high regard, trained by Willie Mullins, cost a load of money to a decent owner, was campaigned in all the 'right' top 2m bumpers, and is a good bet because he looks all over a stayer, screams it in fact. I see the AB as his only option because the Ballymore requires speed he doesn't look to have.

Feels a bit nuts to me even thinking about backing a novice hurdler for March now, but the case for this one specifically seems fairly solid IMO.

[Saxon Warrior]

Bit of an odd one from me because I don't tend to contribute to the Albert Bartlett thread pre Xmas, let alone in May, but Ramillies @ 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett stands out like a sore thumb. No question he's held in extremely high regard by Willie, but he's clearly not a 2 miler, which makes sense given he's by Shantou who produces horses that stay and stay and stay. I like this bet for 4 reasons.

One, his bare results look shit which leave juice in the price.

Two, he was campaigned as if he was top drawer and every single race of note unfolded tactically in exactly the same way - travelled into contention like a very good horse, then because he'd been expending more energy than he would have liked was beaten by large aggregate distances.

Three, the Mullins/Donnelly factor will see this horses prices contract significantly more than it should, especially if he wins a facile maiden hurdle, which makes it more of an attractive ante post proposition.

Four, I've said in my diary ante post bets this far out have to factor in the Irish dominance. Willie/Gordon/Henry win over 50% of races at the festival, so for bets this far out I like siding with one of them.

Ultimately, the horse is held in high regard, trained by Willie Mullins, cost a load of money to a decent owner, was campaigned in all the 'right' top 2m bumpers, and is a good bet because he looks all over a stayer, screams it in fact. I see the AB as his only option because the Ballymore requires speed he doesn't look to have.

Feels a bit nuts to me even thinking about backing a novice hurdler for March now, but the case for this one specifically seems fairly solid IMO.

He is stopping like he's been shot, when the taps turned on in races.

Willie evidently sees him as a good horse.

Maybe he needs a wind-op, and that could turn his ability to finish a race, inside-out?

It doesn't just look like the need to go up in trip, though that should help.

The Stable Tours in October should say if he has had a wind procedure, hopefully.

[Joleg]

Bit of an odd one from me because I don't tend to contribute to the Albert Bartlett thread pre Xmas, let alone in May, but Ramillies @ 33/1 for the Albert Bartlett stands out like a sore thumb. No question he's held in extremely high regard by Willie, but he's clearly not a 2 miler, which makes sense given he's by Shantou who produces horses that stay and stay and stay. I like this bet for 4 reasons.

One, his bare results look shit which leave juice in the price.

Two, he was campaigned as if he was top drawer and every single race of note unfolded tactically in exactly the same way - travelled into contention like a very good horse, then because he'd been expending more energy than he would have liked was beaten by large aggregate distances.

Three, the Mullins/Donnelly factor will see this horses prices contract significantly more than it should, especially if he wins a facile maiden hurdle, which makes it more of an attractive ante post proposition.

Four, I've said in my diary ante post bets this far out have to factor in the Irish dominance. Willie/Gordon/Henry win over 50% of races at the festival, so for bets this far out I like siding with one of them.

Ultimately, the horse is held in high regard, trained by Willie Mullins, cost a load of money to a decent owner, was campaigned in all the 'right' top 2m bumpers, and is a good bet because he looks all over a stayer, screams it in fact. I see the AB as his only option because the Ballymore requires speed he doesn't look to have.

Feels a bit nuts to me even thinking about backing a novice hurdler for March now, but the case for this one specifically seems fairly solid IMO.

A good case, well made charlie and one i will be keeping an eye on, as you rightly point out its a little early to be ploughing in to the Spud race

[charlie]

He is stopping like he's been shot, when the taps turned on in races.

Willie evidently sees him as a good horse.

Maybe he needs a wind-op, and that could turn his ability to finish a race, inside-out?

It doesn't just look like the need to go up in trip, though that should help.

The Stable Tours in October should say if he has had a wind procedure, hopefully.

Willie and his team will know the first thing you check when a horse appears to be travelling very strongly and then stops like they've been shot is their wind, especially when they do it more that once. He kept running him in competitive bumpers so were there a wind issue I'm quite confident we'd know. He could just be shit, that's another explantation, but I'd be reasonably confident that running at a more sedate pace over a longer a trip will suit him far better. I cant believe I'm justifying an Albert Bartlett bet that I haven't placed, in May. What a place