Which horse for 2022 currently priced at 20/1+ havent you backed yet, but like?

[Attaglance]

Great idea for a thread SW. I’m going to throw Eklat De Rire - Gold Cup 66/1 into the ring

I was really taken by his performance at Naas in January, I thought he jumped really well and stayed on really nicely to hold off Escaria Ten.

That was only his second run of the season, his first cling in December beating School Boy hours. Which is a nice run first time over fences.

he was going nicely in the RSA until met one all wrong and came down. I’m convinced he would’ve placed behind Fishcake, after all, the loose horse beat the winner

Anyway 66/1 is a huge price and I will be taking it with cash out in the next week or so

I am with you here on this one, great shout. I have already backed at 66/1 with cash out and included in a few small stake doubles / trebles all cash out with Bet365:

I am Maximus 50/1 - Supreme
RWF - NHC - 16/1
James Du Berlais - Marsh - 20/1
Put The Kettle On - CC - 14/1
Galvin - GN - 33/1
Asterion Forlonge - KG - 25/1

Eklat De Rire is certainly with the correct trainer to get improvement over fences and Henry will certainly not be a one season wonder when it comes to Cheltenham, he is here to stay with the quality he has and potential coming through as well.

Best of luck with him and 66/1 could look massive come next March.

[Topofthegame2021]

I am with you here on this one, great shout. I have already backed at 66/1 with cash out and included in a few small stake doubles / trebles all cash out with Bet365:

I am Maximus 50/1 - Supreme
RWF - NHC - 16/1
James Du Berlais - Marsh - 20/1
Put The Kettle On - CC - 14/1
Galvin - GN - 33/1
Asterion Forlonge - KG - 25/1

Eklat De Rire is certainly with the correct trainer to get improvement over fences and Henry will certainly not be a one season wonder when it comes to Cheltenham, he is here to stay with the quality he has and potential coming through as well.

Best of luck with him and 66/1 could look massive come next March.

Thanks pal! Can’t argue with any of your selections above either. I’m really interested by JDB and will back him at the start of the season when I’ve got more of an idea about his aim. Very murky water for him at the moment IMO!

[Spectre]

Great idea for a thread SW. I’m going to throw Eklat De Rire - Gold Cup 66/1 into the ring

I was really taken by his performance at Naas in January, I thought he jumped really well and stayed on really nicely to hold off Escaria Ten.

That was only his second run of the season, his first cling in December beating School Boy hours. Which is a nice run first time over fences.

he was going nicely in the RSA until met one all wrong and came down. I’m convinced he would’ve placed behind Fishcake, after all, the loose horse beat the winner

Anyway 66/1 is a huge price and I will be taking it with cash out in the next week or so

If I were HdB and the owner, with a mark of 151 my first target would be the Hennessy. Defintiely worth having onside at 66/1 for the Gold Cup though.

[Spectre]

A forgotten one I haven't backed is Boothill, who looked potentially very smart before missing the Festival with sore shins.

He could potentially go for any of the three novice chases, and he's quoted at 50/1 for the Arkle, and 66/1 for the March. Nobody is quoting the RSA.

He's a Presenting out of an Accordian mare, so he'll be fairly versatile with regards trip, and it's not an easy one to figure out a target for. If I had to back him now (I don't), I suspect he'll head down the Arkle route. He showed plenty of toe in his novice hurdles, so there's no need to go up in trip yet. Metier wlll probably be the one from the stable for mid-trips after falling short in the Supreme over the minimum.

[Kautostar]

A forgotten one I haven't backed is Boothill, who looked potentially very smart before missing the Festival with sore shins.

He could potentially go for any of the three novice chases, and he's quoted at 50/1 for the Arkle, and 66/1 for the March. Nobody is quoting the RSA.

He's a Presenting out of an Accordian mare, so he'll be fairly versatile with regards trip, and it's not an easy one to figure out a target for. If I had to back him now (I don't), I suspect he'll head down the Arkle route. He showed plenty of toe in his novice hurdles, so there's no need to go up in trip yet. Metier wlll probably be the one from the stable for mid-trips after falling short in the Supreme over the minimum.

Maybe one for a twar quote

[The King Pimm]

Great thread idea Saxon but there’s much on offer at the moment, the bookies have really pulled back on my most of the markets and there are so many question marks over a few I’ve been looking at such as:
Arkle: Mister Coffey 33/1, Third Time Lucki 55/1
Brown Ad: Stattler 33/1
AB - Hollow Games

thats it so far

[Saxon Warrior]

Great thread idea Saxon but there’s much on offer at the moment, the bookies have really pulled back on my most of the markets and there are so many question marks over a few I’ve been looking at such as:
Arkle: Mister Coffey 33/1, Third Time Lucki 55/1
Brown Ad: Stattler 33/1
AB - Hollow Games

thats it so far

The obvious ones are shorter this time round, that’s true enough.

The trick is going to be for us to spot value and those Festival winners before the big prices go
(as the obvious ones aren’t all going to win)

I have just cast an eye over ALLMANKIND for the Ryanair (33/1 WH, 25/1 Bet365) given his final win of the season being his equal best, on his first run over the mid-trip.

His breeding (flat stayers, and his half-brothers were better over hurdles mid-trips), with Dan Skelton’s quote after the Ayr win was

“Allmankind is a funny type of horse. At the start of the season he's all hot air and exuberance, and he's exciting to watch. As the season progresses he gets a little lazier and he's been lazier at home. But his only chance of lasting and making into an older horse is by racing like that and it bodes really well for the future. I was very taken with the performance. Malystic looked a real threat turning in and Allmankind has gone away. I think he stays well and he could get any trip” -
Dan Skelton, trainer.

I don’t think we will see him over 2M at Cheltenham again.

He has won all 6 Chase and Hurdle races away from Cheltenham, including 2 Grade 1 wins and 2 Grade 2 wins.

His 4 Cheltenham runs have yielded form of 1334.

If he has learned to relax and stay, as well as he did last month, on his reappearance, then he could get a surprise entry in the King George.

Dan Skelton did fantastically well at the Kempton Christmas meeting last year, so he will no doubt aim to repeat that this year, and what better way than to have a crack at the King George.

Allmankind isn’t quoted for the race at the moment, and I may get him added, to see if anyone is going to go a daft price.

Cheltenham and him need to get on better for him to be a live one for March 2022, but he’s a very good horse, and will swill around at the back of my brain through the summer until Dan Skelton’s Stable Tour suggests a plan for him.

I could be quick to react if the plan looks something like I am thinking.

Danny Boy is going to be dining at the top table at the Cheltenham Festival soon enough, and I’m hoping he is going to be brave with his 2022 entries. (My Drogo, Langer Dan, Allmankind....)

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

The obvious ones are shorter this time round, that’s true enough.

The trick is going to be for us to spot value and those Festival winners before the big prices go
(as the obvious ones aren’t all going to win)

I think the other approach will be steer clear of the short priced fancied horses and see if they lose during the season. Most will be beaten at some point throughout the season and bookies, especially those with cash-out, will look to increase the odds at some point to reduce the 100% cash out opportunities.

[Spectre]

Just a thought with this thread. It's for horses we've not yet backed. Given I take a book approach, there's a fair few horses that I wouldn't post on here because I've backed them, but many won't have done. Do you want me to post any that spring to mind on here, or do we want another thread for one's backed but fit the broad criteria?

[Lobos]

Just a thought with this thread. It's for horses we've not yet backed. Given I take a book approach, there's a fair few horses that I wouldn't post on here because I've backed them, but many won't have done. Do you want me to post any that spring to mind on here, or do we want another thread for one's backed but fit the broad criteria?

Post them here Spectre. It's still relative. Ones you've backed but others probably haven't. It all helps.

[Saxon Warrior]

Just a thought with this thread. It's for horses we've not yet backed. Given I take a book approach, there's a fair few horses that I wouldn't post on here because I've backed them, but many won't have done. Do you want me to post any that spring to mind on here, or do we want another thread for one's backed but fit the broad criteria?

Go for it Spectre .

Post some longer priced ones up that we probably havent thought of at 20/1 or bigger.

[Spectre]

Will do. I'll add a few as I get time. One to be going on with:

Dickie Diver - National Hunt Chase 33/1

The starting point for this race is increasingly to look for second season chasers. Run Wild Fred is well found, and I'm sure any active FJ member is already on him. That said there's a long time between here and March, and he could end up with any number of targets, plus he has to get there fit and well, and as is usual with Cheltenham it doesn't usually pay to have all your eggs in one basket.

Given the second season criteria is so prevelant, and is a stat that tends to trump all others, the only other viable candidate that fits the bill I can see is Dicke Diver. Thought good enough to contest the RSA, although well stuffed in the process, he went into that race off an interuped prep, and Henderson was on record as saying he desperately wanted to get another run into him. Therefore I think it's better focus on the RSA being the target, rather than the actual result. In other words Henderson still rates him, and both he and JP know the time of day.

I'm sure he's be a bit of a marmite horse for many. He's been out for a spell, and he was sparsely raced last season, so I get why many would overlook him, but JP in particular is a creature of habit, and he/Fran Berry understand the types that win races at the Festival. It's possible they may try and get him handicapped, but even then I'd expect connections to target an earler race and still aim at the NH Chase in March. He so strongly fits what you want. An unexposed second season chaser' already with a mark in the 140's, with lot's of potential scope to improve into the mid to high 150's. The baseline of his novice hurdle form where he split three subesquent Grade 1 Festival winners in Minella Indo peak 175, Allaho 171, and Lisnager Oscar 160, looks very good in retrospect. Those ratings suggest there's a lot of upside in his mark given time, experience, and fitness. Also he looks all over a chaser, and we know they were excited for a chasing campaign before his layoff.

Will he win it? I don't know. It depends on what turns up really, but I see no reason why he won't be aimed at the race, rather than any other, given he's such an obvious candidate. Trends alone will mean he'd go off a single figure price whatever he does earlier in the season. 33/1 is a fair enough each way price this far out, and I've backed him.

[Saxon Warrior]

He was a horse that screamed out long-distance races, Nationals etc to me, when I watched his Newbury Chase debut. (nothing was happening at speed for him there)

So the NHC could be of interest to connections, particularly if he is a little slow for the RSA.

[Spectre]

My next nominations are both for the same race. The Mares Hurdle is wide open this year. The Concertista bubble was burst by Black Tears who's level of form is not difficult to get a handle on, suggesting it wan't a vintage renewal. Then we look at last seasons novices for realistic challengers. Tellmesomethinggirl was a good winner of the mares novice hurdle, and if you had to pick an improver it would perhaps be Gauloise. So while one of those two might improve to be challengers, there's two horses further down the list that both promise to be much better for a step up in trip to two and half miles.

The Glancing Queen 40/1 has been mixing it with top horses all the way back to her bumper days, and King was half minded to go for this last season rather than run against the novices over a trip that's too short for her. As it was he went the two mile route, and she was outpaced but ran on really nicely in fifth, closing all the way to the line from the last. Another half mile and the 10 lengths she was behind could easily have been reversed. Her best RPR was over two and half, and she's mixed in top company both in bumpers and over hurdles. Being beaten 7 lengths in Envoi Allen's bumper is an indication of her underlying ability in the context of this. Her current mark is there to be exploited, and it would make sense for King to use it now she's out of her novice season, so I'll be surprised if she doesn't pick up a big pot along the way. She might not be good enough to beat Quevega, Honeysuckle, or Benie in their prime, but she won't have to, as the senior mares for next season don't particularly inspire right now, and at 40/1 she's an easy pick.

Santa Rossa 66/1 takes a bit more of a leap of faith given how sparsely she's been raced, but her comeback run at Navan in March showed that he hasn't lost any ability. She won completely untroubled but in a manner that suggested a step up in trip is wanted sooner rather than later. She was an excellent bumper horse finishing third in the Aintree bumper, and ran a big race in the Punchestown Champion bumper when impeded and still finishing less than two lenghts behind Colreevy and Abacadabras. Again running on in the style of horse that would want further. Lightly raced, there's a bundle of improvement to come, but she's going to be pitched in against better company fairly quickly next season, and if she's up to the task her mark will head south quite quickly.

The thing that links both mares is they share the same sire in Jeremy. So sire influence suggests both will be better over further than the minimum, and all of Jeremy's best progeny have excelled over two and half and three miles. Although admittedly Appreciate It defied that last season. In the case of the Glancing Queen, she's out of a Kayf Tara mare, so the fact that she's done what she's done over two miles is remarkable. There's a heap of improvement to come from her. The risk is that she may be better still over three miles, but the price with cashout makes it an easy decision. Santa Rossa on the other hand is out of an Almutawakel mare, so there's more of a speed influence there, but by combining the visuals with the sire influence suggests a step up in trip is needed. I'd be confident that two and a half would be perfect for her, and I suspect three would be too far. Of the two though she's harder to back as the cash out bookmakers haven't priced her up yet. Maybe she's worth an enquiry from someone who is happy to put their head above the parapet.

[nortonscoin200]

I'm a big fan of Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit which means backing anything against them in the Supreme and Ballymore has not been anywhere near the top of my agenda.

But one horse who could shake up those two is only being quoted by cash-out kings B365 - at 50-1 in the Supreme and 33-1 in the Ballymore.

ERIC BLOODAXE has already shown glimpses of top class form and has been mixing with the best in all four of his career runs.

Eric won a 17-runner Fairyhouse bumper on yielding/soft on his debut beating fellow debutante Ferny Hollow by 2 1/2 lengths in receipt of 3lbs.

He finished his race very impressively that day in a career best performance.

Four weeks later Eric gave Wide Receiver 4lbs and a 2 1/2 length beating in a 7-runner Leopardstown bumper on yielding ground.

He was then sent off second favourite to Appreciate It in the 51k bumper at last year's Dublin racing festival but was beaten almost 30 lengths and pulled up lame.

That was the last we saw of him until he rocked up in the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown a couple of weeks ago and finished a commendable staying on 13-length fourth to Kilcruit.

It's interesting that Joseph pitched him in there after a 15-month absence.

I've been slightly dubious about mentioning him on here as I'm not even sure he's one for me.

The negatives are that he'll be a 7-year-old novice hurdler at the Festival next March which is not ideal. He's also a horse who's had an injury that kept him off the track for more than a year.

But he's with a good trainer and has been up against elite/good rivals in every race he's contested.

If you watch a replay of his debut win over Ferny Hollow you cannot fail but be impressed - even though Ferny was narrowly beaten next time out by another one of Joseph's.

And at Bet365 prices Eric deserves to at least be under scrutiny - specially at 50-1 for the Supreme.

In his stable tour last Autumn Joseph said: "He was an exciting horse in bumpers last season, but unfortunately he picked up a little injury when disappointing in his last run that ended up keeping him off the track for the rest of the season. He’ll go novice hurdling this season and you’d have to be excited about him. We’ll start him off at two miles and play it by ear from there."

What I'm really trying to say is - what do you guys think? Am I barking up the wrong tree or is he worth a couple of shillings each way at the cash out prices?

Interested to hear if anyone has a view.