Which horse for 2022 currently priced at 20/1+ havent you backed yet, but like?

[Fouroverthrutwo]

I started this thread at lunchtime on Wednesday, when I mentioned I was researching one horse in particular that I hadn’t backed but liked.

So far, I don’t think anyone has mentioned the horse, and no matter how much I look into him, he still blows hot and cold with me

He is a horse I haven’t particularly taken to in the past, but his big step up in form at Punchestown, as well as a decent run in Cheltenham, were his highlights this season, and it’s put him vying for top spot in his category for the season, based on his new RPR of 170.

I’ve looked at what race he may turn up in next March, and would he come to Cheltenham at all, and in the end my summation has been:-

* He has been to the last two Cheltenham Festivals, and there is no reason for his trainer to change tack next season, based on his runs their (4th and 3d).

* Trained by Willie Mullins, whose comments post race at Punchestown last week were
“He was able to get it all together.
Handicaps are just run at a different pace to graded races and he liked that nice ground too.
I think he could improve an awful lot next year and he has the potential to be a very good horse - Willie Mullins, trainer

* His form now is an official rating of 162 as a Novice Chaser, and 170 RPR.

this compares favourably with the other top Novices at the mid-trip or staying trips

Monkfish OR 163, RPR 170
Envoi Allen OR 163, RPR 165
Latest Exhibition OR 155, RPR 160
Chantry House OR 162, RPR 167

He is marmite horse, really, and has ran in and out this season, in his novice chases.

I am not going to argue that he could run 10lb better or worse from one run to another, but the quote above from Willie, the way he won at Punchestown and the potential to be better next season, where 2nd season chasers win the Ryanair or Gold Cup, regularly, gives me some hope that marking him down as a potential Festival live one, doesn’t get buried in the dirt early next season.

He is only 7, and a 3rd in the Marsh Novice Chase could be a springboard to an even better second season, after all he is already rated as good as the best mid-trip and staying novice chasers who will be contesting the open graded races next season.

I am torn between the step up in trip to the Gold Cup for him, or to stick at the mid-trip and the Ryanair.

I think he will be tried over a 3M race distance next season (like Allaho, Melon, A Plus Tard and Fakir D’Oudairies last season).

The race programme is easier and better for 3M Grade 1’s than 2M4F, and if he stayed the longer trip it opens up options - like it did for A Plus Tard, winning the Savills a had on his first 3M race, then runner-up in the Gold Cup on his second start at an extension of that trip.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him run over 3M at Christmas, either in the Savills Chase, or in the King George at Kempton, where he is a best price of 25/1.

If that went well then I am sure he would be targeted at the Gold Cup.
If it went less well, then he should go for the Ryanair.

You’ve probably guessed who it is by now.

I have never backed him before, but I am looking at the 25/1 Ryanair (with Cashout) and 50/1 Gold Cup (without Cashout) as being “priced to entice” to some extent, as well as the 25/1 for the King George at Christmas.

He wasnt in the Gold Cup market at all, until I asked for Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and WH to quote for the Gold Cup, on Wednesday. I was hoping for 50s, and was disappointed that the three Cashout items only went 25/1, given his hot and cold form.

I think he could improve for a step up in trip.

He is the enigmatic.

ASTERION FORLONGE

I have backed him several times and every time (bar the last handicap) he has run like a dog. 'Enigmatic' is putting it mildly

[Faugheen_Machine]

If Asterion Forlonge wins a grade 1 at Cheltenham I'll.....

I'm not sure what I'll do but it'll not happen. He is a stone worse left handed imo

[Quevega]

The prices aren’t right really.
he should be bigger.
still think he’d win the stayers hurdle though.
that would be a good clash

asterion v klassical

dumb v dumber

[Saxon Warrior]

I've put up Asterion Forlonge for the King George before as I feel Kempton on decent ground and 3 miles will suit him perfectly and he looks tailor made for the race. There's definitely still value in 25's. I just can't have him winning a top table race at Cheltenham though as he blatantly is several pounds worse going left handed and his runs there, whilst decent, have exposed his dislike going 'the wrong way around'.

Lobos

Its definitely true that his best run was last week, over a right handed track, and also that his second best run was in the Marsh at Cheltenham (based on Racing Post Ratings)

Im not 100% convinced by him, hence why I started this thread, with him in mind.

But he has improved twice in his last three runs, one at Cheltenham and one at Punchestown (with a low par one right-handed in between at Fairyhouse).

I think that his need for a right-handed track has receded somewhat, this season.

If it hadn’t, I wouldn’t give him a moments thought, and Willie wouldn’t have ran him in the Marsh.

He is now rated as good as Monkfish, Envoi Allen and Chantry House, with a bigger price due to the question marks about him.

Desert Orchid was 7lb better (at least) around right-handed tracks, but eventually got his day in the sun, in the Gold Cup.
Some horses can adapt over time, others can’t.

Ive put up AF in this section (ones you like that you haven’t backed yet), in the hope that he is one that can adapt in his first open season chasing.

[Quevega]

I’d be wary of RPR in handicaps.
although asterions race looked decent- it was an end of season handicap and unlikely to have been on anyone’s Christmas list at the start of the season.

Bit like the Rouge Vif anomaly when given 167 for winning a handicap worthy of cartmel only at the start of the season.
massive over reaction.

but at least asterion is with a Proven master.

[Saxon Warrior]

I’d be wary of RPR in handicaps.
although asterions race looked decent- it was an end of season handicap and unlikely to have been on anyone’s Christmas list at the start of the season.

Bit like the Rouge Vif anomaly when given 167 for winning a handicap worthy of cartmel only at the start of the season.
massive over reaction.

but at least asterion is with a Proven master.

Yes, If Willie think he could be improving and a very good horse, then that’s worth more than most trainer comments.

As Archie mentioned, it was the Punchestown handicap that Kemboy won off 5lb less.

Before he started a glittering Grade 1 season winning the Clonmel Oils Chase next time out, then the Savills (fell in Gold Cup, the Betfair Bowl and the Punchestown Gold Cup.

[Quevega]

Yes, If Willie think he could be improving and a very good horse, then that’s worth more than most trainer comments.

As Archie mentioned, it was the Punchestown handicap that Kemboy won off 5lb less.

Before he started a glittering Grade 1 season winning the Clonmel Oils Chase next time out, then the Savills (fell in Gold Cup, the Betfair Bowl and the Punchestown Gold Cup.

Not sure that comparison means much.
Aside from the trainer.

I do think you may be proved correct and he wins some nice graded races next year. But understand why you’d hold off betting him for now.
the prices don’t look out of sync

[That Horse]

The talk around Asterion Forlonge just made me realise there hasn't been much chatter around Chantry House on the forum.

Did the run against espoir de romay at Aintree put people off and not rate him as high?

Or has CH been dismissed because he won the race that Envoi Allen was supposed to win?

CH is trained by Nicky, has Cheltenham form but I don't see much love for him on here, including myself there too, I've backed him for the king George only on the chance that the Irish brigade won't rock up at Kempton with all the other racing on their own turf around that time.

He's 20/1 for the gold cup and if Lord Windermere can win one.........

[Lobos]

His 3rd to Chantry House and Fusils Raffles at Cheltenham shouldn't excite anyone especially with Envoi falling and if he hadn't taken out 2 horses in the Supreme he'd have been a well beaten 6th. I just can't have him at all at Cheltenham and don't think he'll run there again. He'll be saved for Punchestown imo. I do however think he's a KG winner in waiting.

[Spectre]

I perspnally couldn't back Asterion Forlonge at Cheltenham unless I'd seen him jump straight going left-handed a couple of times. It's possible he could win a race that badly cut up, but he's not an antepost proposition for me.

I started to compile a King George book about a month or so ago, and just like like Lobos I have him backed for Kempton. The others I've backed are Chantry House, Clan Des Obeux, Envoi Allen, A Plus Tard, Espoir De Romay, and Royale Pagaille. I can't see the winner not coming from that group. Clearly all won't turn up, but I have cashout and the bookies aren't as hot on trainer noise outside of Kempton, so I suspect I'll easily get out of what I don't want. All will be shorter than the prices I backed them at, so I'll also have a dabble on the exchange for a safety net at some point too.

It's not really the thread for this, but after a few very mundane renewals, we could have a cracker of a King George this season.

[Spectre]

Re Allart, it was interesting that his only entry was going to be the Coral Cup this year but they couldn't get him right in time for the festival. The handicap route could be a nice fit for him and his hurdles rating is a lot lower than his chase rating so they may well want to take advantage of that.

Possibly Lobos, but turning 8 they need to get on with it now, so other than perhaps a seasonal pipe opener over hurdles I can't see it. If you saw him in the flesh you'd know why they'd want him chasing. Also Ronnie Bartlett doesn't buy his horses for hurdling. Hurldes are a step on the road to graded chases.

[Lobos]

Possibly Lobos, but turning 8 they need to get on with it now, so other than perhaps a seasonal pipe opener over hurdles I can't see it. If you saw him in the flesh you'd know why they'd want him chasing. Also Ronnie Bartlett doesn't buy his horses for hurdling. Hurldes are a step on the road to graded chases.

You could be right. Looking at his first race over fences though he didn't give me much confidence with his jumping although he managed to win cosily and then of course he fell in his 2nd chase. Maybe his Coral Cup entry was more than just trying to take advantage of his hurdles handicap mark. Perhaps they feel chasing isn't his game? It'll be interesting to see where they start him off next season.

[Saxon Warrior]

This is the thread, for these horses with question marks, and unfulfilled ambitions, its an interesting read as to which direction we think they could head down.

I expected Asterion Forlonge would get some pushback as a Festival horse, and some consideration for the King George.

I like Archie's race programming note on the Clinmel Oils chase following Kemboy's route from the same Punchestown Handicap through to his Savills Chase win.

From an official rating point of view the thing that appealed as panning for gold amongst the dirt with AF, is, as a novice going into open races:

* he is already 5lb higher on OR's than Kemboy was when he lined up in the Savills Chase.

* he already has an OR the same as Allaho (162) when he lined up in the Ryanair this March.

So his journey into next season doesn't need to show much improvement to be considered for either race, based on a novice stepping into them in his 2nd season.

Whether he is a horse capable of :-

* bettering what he's done already, and
* improving left handed

are the 2 unanswered questions.

It was Willies post-race comments at Punchestown, and his win there, that brought him into my mind.

I think I'm untainted by never backing him before though.


Room 101 seems to be the pushback from some bright minds re his Cheltenham 2022 destination.
(maybe that could be a nickname for the horse on here - 'Room 101')

[Topofthegame2021]

Great idea for a thread SW. I’m going to throw Eklat De Rire - Gold Cup 66/1 into the ring

I was really taken by his performance at Naas in January, I thought he jumped really well and stayed on really nicely to hold off Escaria Ten.

That was only his second run of the season, his first cling in December beating School Boy hours. Which is a nice run first time over fences.

he was going nicely in the RSA until met one all wrong and came down. I’m convinced he would’ve placed behind Fishcake, after all, the loose horse beat the winner

Anyway 66/1 is a huge price and I will be taking it with cash out in the next week or so

[Saxon Warrior]

Great idea for a thread SW. I’m going to throw Eklat De Rire - Gold Cup 66/1 into the ring

I was really taken by his performance at Naas in January, I thought he jumped really well and stayed on really nicely to hold off Escaria Ten.

That was only his second run of the season, his first cling in December beating School Boy hours. Which is a nice run first time over fences.

he was going nicely in the RSA until met one all wrong and came down. I’m convinced he would’ve placed behind Fishcake, after all, the loose horse beat the winner

Anyway 66/1 is a huge price and I will be taking it with cash out in the next week or so

I’m going back to the videos on that one.

I had him backed for the RSA as a decent second bet, and cover for Monkfish, so know the horses back form, breeding etc, but well worth a revisit after your post.

These nudges, and reminders, are just the sort of thing I was hoping for when I started the thread