Which horse for 2022 currently priced at 20/1+ havent you backed yet, but like?

[RufusFlynn]

On the Munir & Souede horses:

Fusil Raffles 33/1 for the Ryanair - difficult race to predict who will turn up a few weeks before never mind a year out but has generally ran well at Cheltenham and can't see any other targets for him as don't think he is good enough over the shorted distance for the QMCC and he's not a GC horse.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I really liked Holymacapony’s debut where he beat Gaillard Du Mesnil by seven lengths. He would have to put two poor performances behind him but something tells me he had a undiagnosed problem which will hopefully resolve itself after a summer break. At 50-1 for the BA Novice Chase I’ll take a punt. I doubt his odds will move much, if at all, before he records a good performance but nonetheless 50-1 is a nice price for a promising horse.

[MadeinJapan]

Blue Lord. Can’t work out where this horse will end up at the Festival currently. I’ve backed him for the Champion Hurdle initially as a rank outsider but think he’ll
be aimed chasing... Munir & Souede however seem to have several potential runners who could do that too - notable James De Berlais as several have mentioned on here. I can’t get away from his runs this season though which strikes me as a young horse with an abundance of talent & potential - just needs to settle better which I’m hoping will come with age. Could well be the next Footpad for them... currently quoted between 20/1 - 40/1 dependent on race. Will keep a close eye on where they send him first time out next season.

[Craigy14]

A lively outsider for the Gold Cup for me, Imperial Aura.

Available at 50/1 with most firms who have him priced up.

Happy to forgive his last run in the Ryanair (he bled). He also unseated before that which was very uncharacteristic imo. Before that he was very impressive and his bold jumping with Bass on board was great to watch. Plenty course form as well.

Negatives I suppose would be his last 2 runs and also he’ll be 9 next season, but at the price think he might be worth hovering over during his reappearance run if running well.

[Istabraq]

Blue Lord. Can’t work out where this horse will end up at the Festival currently. I’ve backed him for the Champion Hurdle initially as a rank outsider but think he’ll
be aimed chasing... Munir & Souede however seem to have several potential runners who could do that too - notable James De Berlais as several have mentioned on here. I can’t get away from his runs this season though which strikes me as a young horse with an abundance of talent & potential - just needs to settle better which I’m hoping will come with age. Could well be the next Footpad for them... currently quoted between 20/1 - 40/1 dependent on race. Will keep a close eye on where they send him first time out next season.

If he was mine I'd send him chasing, pick up place money behind the likes of Appreciate It and Bob Olinger all Winter then throw him in the Coral Cup off 148...

[RufusFlynn]

Blue Lord. Can’t work out where this horse will end up at the Festival currently. I’ve backed him for the Champion Hurdle initially as a rank outsider but think he’ll
be aimed chasing... Munir & Souede however seem to have several potential runners who could do that too - notable James De Berlais as several have mentioned on here. I can’t get away from his runs this season though which strikes me as a young horse with an abundance of talent & potential - just needs to settle better which I’m hoping will come with age. Could well be the next Footpad for them... currently quoted between 20/1 - 40/1 dependent on race. Will keep a close eye on where they send him first time out next season.

Yes, like the shout for Blue Lord - quite a few of the Munir & Souede horses fall into this thread for me but like you said difficult to predict where they will end up and equally a lot of their horses seem to hit the festival crossbar so not always top top level. At this stage, i would see Blue Lord going Arkle & James du Berlais to the Marsh. Blue Lord hasn't looked necessarily like he wants a step up in trip and bar the fall would have finished 2nd in the supreme. JdB stepped up to 3m at Punchestown, and the owners previous stayers (or potential stayers) Bristol, Top Notch, Terrefort have all ran over the mid distance at the Fest in their novice year.

[Spectre]

This one doesn't strictly qualify for the thread because I've just bitten the bullet and backed him each way, but Allart is a forgotten horse and a huge price at 50/1 for the Ryanair.

Last season needs writing off after a win and a heavy fall to his name, and he is still inexperienced right now, but I expect him to do very well this season. There were comments from Hendo after his Supreme and at the beginning of last season that sugested just how highly he rates him, and there was even talk of him possibly hanging around over hurdles for a Champion Hurdle campaign as he thought there was unfinished business. As it was he was switched to fences and he kicked off by easily beating Fiddlerontheroof at Ascot. FOTR then went on to finish second to Monkfish in the RSA. Allart's fall was when he was giving a penalty away to his rivals and he was going ominously easily at the time.

Who nows what he would have gone on to do last season without the fall, but he's rated 152 after only two chases, so the handicapper clearly likes him, and after so few races their is significant scope for improvement. He's also a big old scopey unit that looks made for chasing, and will improve for filling out and maturity. He's just the lightly raced sort that Henderson does really well with.

His Supreme has turned out to be an excellent race with graded wins coming from it everywhere, plus big handicap wins with the like of Heaven Help Us and Edwardstone who finished down the field. Henderson is also on record as saying Allart wasn't ridden well and should have been much closer pace, and he wasn't happy that he was ridden against the rail where he thought the ground was artificially slow from watering. He also suggested he had to rush his prep and he may have been a shade undercooked. I can't find the specific quotes online now, but I have kept the notes in my tracker.

As for the Ryanair this season comming, Allaho demolished what turned out to be a very ordinary Ryanair field in March, and there are literally no new names coming to the party that you'd get excited about. I do expect Allaho to turn up here irrespective of Willie saying he may drop him to two miles, and if Energumene goes to the Arkle as expected, the Ryanair is ripe for a new challenger from the clouds. In my mind Allart fits the bill perfectly. He's unexposed, he's the right age, and his trainer rates him really highly and knows a bit about winning Grade 1's at the Festival.

He's 50/1 which is a big price for a horse of his quality, and I expect him to go off at a single figure price when he gets a couple of wins under his belt. I'm confident he'll emerge as one of very few realistic challengers to Allaho.

[That Horse]

This one doesn't strictly qualify for the thread because I've just bitten the bullet and backed him each way, but Allart is a forgotten horse and a huge price at 50/1 for the Ryanair.

Last season needs writing off after a win and a heavy fall to his name, and he is still inexperienced right now, but I expect him to do very well this season. There were comments from Hendo after his Supreme and at the beginning of last season that sugested just how highly he rates him, and there was even talk of him possibly hanging around over hurdles for a Champion Hurdle campaign as he thought there was unfinished business. As it was he was switched to fences and he kicked off by easily beating Fiddlerontheroof at Ascot. FOTR then went on to finish second to Monkfish in the RSA. Allart's fall was when he was giving a penalty away to his rivals and he was going ominously easily at the time.

Who nows what he would have gone on to do last season without the fall, but he's rated 152 after only two chases, so the handicapper clearly likes him, and after so few races their is significant scope for improvement. He's also a big old scopey unit that looks made for chasing, and will improve for filling out and maturity. He's just the lightly raced sort that Henderson does really well with.

His Supreme has turned out to be an excellent race with graded wins coming from it everywhere, plus big handicap wins with the like of Heaven Help Us and Edwardstone who finished down the field. Henderson is also on record as saying Allart wasn't ridden well and should have been much closer pace, and he wasn't happy that he was ridden against the rail where he thought the ground was artificially slow from watering. He also suggested he had to rush his prep and he may have been a shade undercooked. I can't find the specific quotes online now, but I have kept the notes in my tracker.

As for the Ryanair this season comming, Allaho demolished what turned out to be a very ordinary Ryanair field in March, and there are literally no new names coming to the party that you'd get excited about. I do expect Allaho to turn up here irrespective of Willie saying he may drop him to two miles, and if Energumene goes to the Arkle as expected, the Ryanair is ripe for a new challenger from the clouds. In my mind Allart fits the bill perfectly. He's unexposed, he's the right age, and his trainer rates him really highly and knows a bit about winning Grade 1's at the Festival.

He's 50/1 which is a big price for a horse of his quality, and I expect him to go off at a single figure price when he gets a couple of wins under his belt. I'm confident he'll emerge as one of very few realistic challengers to Allaho.

'kin hell, just looked back at the field, that was some supreme lineup, Cheltenham winner, Aintree winner, Cheltenham winner, punchestown winner then your lad in 5th.

[Lobos]

Re Allart, it was interesting that his only entry was going to be the Coral Cup this year but they couldn't get him right in time for the festival. The handicap route could be a nice fit for him and his hurdles rating is a lot lower than his chase rating so they may well want to take advantage of that.

[Saxon Warrior]

I started this thread at lunchtime on Wednesday, when I mentioned I was researching one horse in particular that I hadn’t backed but liked.

So far, I don’t think anyone has mentioned the horse, and no matter how much I look into him, he still blows hot and cold with me

He is a horse I haven’t particularly taken to in the past, but his big step up in form at Punchestown, as well as a decent run in Cheltenham, were his highlights this season, and it’s put him vying for top spot in his category for the season, based on his new RPR of 170.

I’ve looked at what race he may turn up in next March, and would he come to Cheltenham at all, and in the end my summation has been:-

* He has been to the last two Cheltenham Festivals, and there is no reason for his trainer to change tack next season, based on his runs their (4th and 3d).

* Trained by Willie Mullins, whose comments post race at Punchestown last week were
“He was able to get it all together.
Handicaps are just run at a different pace to graded races and he liked that nice ground too.
I think he could improve an awful lot next year and he has the potential to be a very good horse - Willie Mullins, trainer

* His form now is an official rating of 162 as a Novice Chaser, and 170 RPR.

this compares favourably with the other top Novices at the mid-trip or staying trips

Monkfish OR 163, RPR 170
Envoi Allen OR 163, RPR 165
Latest Exhibition OR 155, RPR 160
Chantry House OR 162, RPR 167

He is marmite horse, really, and has ran in and out this season, in his novice chases.

I am not going to argue that he could run 10lb better or worse from one run to another, but the quote above from Willie, the way he won at Punchestown and the potential to be better next season, where 2nd season chasers win the Ryanair or Gold Cup, regularly, gives me some hope that marking him down as a potential Festival live one, doesn’t get buried in the dirt early next season.

He is only 7, and a 3rd in the Marsh Novice Chase could be a springboard to an even better second season, after all he is already rated as good as the best mid-trip and staying novice chasers who will be contesting the open graded races next season.

I am torn between the step up in trip to the Gold Cup for him, or to stick at the mid-trip and the Ryanair.

I think he will be tried over a 3M race distance next season (like Allaho, Melon, A Plus Tard and Fakir D’Oudairies last season).

The race programme is easier and better for 3M Grade 1’s than 2M4F, and if he stayed the longer trip it opens up options - like it did for A Plus Tard, winning the Savills a had on his first 3M race, then runner-up in the Gold Cup on his second start at an extension of that trip.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him run over 3M at Christmas, either in the Savills Chase, or in the King George at Kempton, where he is a best price of 25/1.

If that went well then I am sure he would be targeted at the Gold Cup.
If it went less well, then he should go for the Ryanair.

You’ve probably guessed who it is by now.

I have never backed him before, but I am looking at the 25/1 Ryanair (with Cashout) and 50/1 Gold Cup (without Cashout) as being “priced to entice” to some extent, as well as the 25/1 for the King George at Christmas.

He wasnt in the Gold Cup market at all, until I asked for Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and WH to quote for the Gold Cup, on Wednesday. I was hoping for 50s, and was disappointed that the three Cashout items only went 25/1, given his hot and cold form.

I think he could improve for a step up in trip.

He is the enigmatic.

ASTERION FORLONGE

[RufusFlynn]

Saxon Warrior - Asterion Forlonge is one that sprung to mind immediately for this thread but I hadn’t bothered to look into seeing what price he was for what race. 100% agree though - if he gets it all together he could run a big race wherever. Reminds me a bit of Yorkhill in that you don’t know which horse you are going to get on the day!

[archie]

Asterion Forlonge won the Punchestown novice handicap that was won by Kemboy 3 years ago and in very similar fashion. He started that race off 152 compared to Kemboy's 147 although they both went up by 10 for the win.
If the pattern continues, his price will stay the same through the summer but he will be worth a second look when declared for the Clonmel Oils Chase.

[Lobos]

I've put up Asterion Forlonge for the King George before as I feel Kempton on decent ground and 3 miles will suit him perfectly and he looks tailor made for the race. There's definitely still value in 25's. I just can't have him winning a top table race at Cheltenham though as he blatantly is several pounds worse going left handed and his runs there, whilst decent, have exposed his dislike going 'the wrong way around'.

[Lobos]

Asterion Forlonge won the Punchestown novice handicap that was won by Kemboy 3 years ago and in very similar fashion. He started that race off 152 compared to Kemboy's 147 although they both went up by 10 for the win.
If the pattern continues, his price will stay the same through the summer but he will be worth a second look when declared for the Clonmel Oils Chase.

Nail on head. Keep him in all the top RH races. Play to his strengths.

[Saxon Warrior]

Asterion Forlonge won the Punchestown novice handicap that was won by Kemboy 3 years ago and in very similar fashion. He started that race off 152 compared to Kemboy's 147 although they both went up by 10 for the win.
If the pattern continues, his price will stay the same through the summer but he will be worth a second look when declared for the Clonmel Oils Chase.

archie A good call that.

I like the Kemboy route of the 2M4F Clonmel Oils Grade 2, and then a Christmas run over 3M, either in the Savills or the King George.