Non Runner No Bet (post #1 for updates)

[Faugheen_Machine]

NRNB there now with Hills

[Exar Essay]

NRNB prices are out

A highly topical one - James Du Berlais seems very good value at 14/1 for both races.

[Quevega]

Been through these quickly.
Some bets I've placed.

Some to compliment other bets, and some because they look value or worthy of a punt for some reason.

James du berlais 14-1 RSA & Turners
Maries Rock 10-1 stayers
allegorie de vassy 7-1 turners
third time lucky 16-1 grand annual
lisnagar fortune 20-1 bartlett
harmonya maker 33-1 mares novice
captain conby 33-1 pertemps again.
samcro 14-1 cross country
Blue Lord 6-1 Ryanair

And the shorties all look reasonable ish, which probably tells me they are prepared to take them on nearer the day, however, any one of them could go off much shorter if things pan out.

Favori de champdou is 16-1 NRNB - I'm on at the special price but I know a lot will have taken 16's recently so worth messing if you can.

[Benjy23]

Taken JDB bets as above also. Not got time to look through properly but he's about the only one I wanted to be interested in that runs today.

[Quevega]

and we've all been caught 20-1 bartlett.

[Quevega]

Gentlemans game also 16-1 NRNB. for those that took the 16's after his win the other day.

[Lbur4288]

I quite like those odds, nowhere near the brutal cull I was expecting.

[Quevega]

The Harmonya Maker one was well timed

[Carnage at Taunton]

and we've all been caught 20-1 bartlett.

I’d say that’s fair after that

[The hill]

I’d say that’s fair after that

Very fair i think, the 40s win today and AB was decent plus STD just said he'll go up now to 3 miles so 20s nrnb lookes very safe

[Many Clouds]

I quite like those odds, nowhere near the brutal cull I was expecting.

Does this mean Bollinger was talking absolute shite again? If so, I'm shocked.

[Lbur4288]

Does this mean Bollinger was talking absolute shite again? If so, I'm shocked.

Well the majority have only shortened a point or two and I'm more than happy to sacrifice that for the safety net of NRNB. It certainly isn't a massive difference to 24 hours ago in terms of the market.

[DenmanSacre]

Hard for them to shorten them too much when the majority of their antepost prices were garbage anyway.

[Bollinger]

Does this mean Bollinger was talking absolute shite again? If so, I'm shocked.

The point I was very specifically making, and as sure as night follows day it’s happened, is William Hill have cut (drastically as a percentage on that given horse) the horses that they DONT want you to bet on, nor take advantage of.

Facile Vega 4/5, Constitution Hill 1/5, Delta Work 5/4,Gaillard Du Mesnil Evens, Galopin Des Champs 6/4,Energumene 4/6, Lossiemouth Evens, Allaho 4/5, Honeysuckle 6/4 for the Mares, and plenty more in below them have had 15-20% cuts overnight. It might only be a third of a point, but as a percentage in the bookies favour, it works for them.

So please,I’m not talking ‘shite’ here. I don’t feel I need to swear to get my point across, and would rather bring evidence to the table than an opinion, or a thought.

All of the horses that have been mentioned above by various people - the very best of luck - each and every one of might win st the festival and make you very profitable. But the truth is, William Hill have no problem with this, and actively encourage you to back all of these horses - they aren’t the most likely winners at Noon on the 1st of January of those races, in their books.

What they do not want, as has been proven at Noon today, is for you to back a favourite. Favourites winning means they lose. So they cut them, and ask you to be braver than 24 hrs ago, or they’ll give you your money back if something go’s wrong and everybody’s happy - punter and bookmaker.

Bookmakers make highly considered and algorithmic mathematical decisions that maintain a high level of profit.

A punter rarely ever does this, because we don’t have the tools. We just form an opinion, fight between ourselves with those opinions, and try to better the bookie with those opinions.

And that’s why their NRNB’s are generally worth diddly squat. Their maths will alway, in the very large majorly of events, supersede our opinions and selections.

And i apologetic, once again, if I’m talking shite.

[Many Clouds]

Reeled in a whopper there, too easy. Thanks again for explaining how nrnb works, your presence on this forum truly is a blessing.