TWAR discussion 2022

[Eggs]

With Hills having introduced their TWAR market I thought it might be good housekeeping to keep discussions/prices in one place.

The general consensus is Hills prices are even worst than those initially offered by Sky, so I have listed a small comparison below. Hopefully, there will be greater value to highlight as the year progresses & markets mature. There might even be a window where multiples are allowed.

Allaho 5/2 (Hills); 10/3 (Sky)
Appreciate It 7/4 (Hills & Sky)
Bob Ollinger 7/4 (Hills); 3-1 (Sky)
Bravemansgame 6-1 (H); 7-1 (S)
Energumene 6-1 (H&S)
Editeur du Gite 16-1 (H); 14-1 (S)
Kilcruit 5/2 (H); 3-1 (S)
Jonbon 5-1 (H); 7-1 (S)
Journey with Me 7-1 (H); 9-1 (S)
PTKO 6-1 (H); 7-1 (S)
Quilixios 6-1 (H); 4-1 (S)
Shewearsitwell 6-1 (H); 7-1 (S)
Shishkin 4/5 (H); 6/5 (S)
Sir G 2-1 (H); 11/4 (S)
Stattler 5-1 (H); 10-1 (S)
Tellmesomethingirl 6-1 (H); 5-1 (S)
TBO 14-1 (H); 10-1 (S)
Thyme Hill 4-1 (H); 7-1 (S)
Tiger Roll 4-1 (H); 5-1 (S)
Vanilier 7-1 (H); 6-1 (S)

[Stormez]

Editeur Du Gite seems a strange one to have been requested. He’s not going to be QM class, and as an English horse he’s automatically ruled out of winning a handicap

[fatherjohn]

all I can say is...wow. was holding out hope that sky had been heavy handed but those sky prices are generally better.

I cant see anything here that appeals this far out

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Crikey Hills are so bad they make Sky’s look acceptable when they are also terrible. I’ve long argued that the Any race market is over rated anyway as it doesn’t allow for cash out and you can end up backing multiple horses that never get near the Festival. I personally only use it if there is an obvious rick (normally in the handicap markets) or a horse genuinely could end up in 3 (or more) races, say such as Bob Olinger next year (although not at these prices). If I can confidently get the target down to two races, I’d much rather back the horse for both with cash out.

[Lobos]

TWAR has been brilliant to me the last few years with multiple big priced winners that could have gone anywhere but it looks dead this year. I've started building a book without it and expect that's the way it'll stay. Hopefully I'm clever enough to at least eliminate the code and 1 or 2 races per horse . I suspect I'll have to do even more doubles on the big guns as It'll turn into a case of 'buying money' trying to get the shorties on board as singles and that's not me. I have had a Biggie on Honeysuckle but she owes me nothing. In fact, I owe her. She'll be the only single I'll be doing on anything smaller than around 10's.

[Istabraq]

I could make a small case for The Bosses Oscar at 14/1 and possible Vanillier at 7s but that would be a stretch, the rest are abysmally priced...

[Big Bucks]

7s on the short side I'm sure for most people this far out, for any horse, but THYME HILL generally 5s now for the Stayers, bit of value taking 7s?

[Faugheen_Machine]

7s on the short side I'm sure for most people this far out, for any horse, but THYME HILL generally 5s now for the Stayers, bit of value taking 7s?

I think he's one that is ok, given he's 8s best price for the Stayers.

[Big Bucks]

I think he's one that is ok, given he's 8s best price for the Stayers.

If oddschecker working correctly that's only with betway and betfred for 8/1, so I think that 7s is very fair, and possibly a mistake on sky's part

[Spectre]

Even then Hobbs has said it's the Stayers next season, so 8/1 best price without any race is low risk for anyone that has a Betfred account.

[Lobos]

I could make a small case for The Bosses Oscar at 14/1 and possible Vanillier at 7s but that would be a stretch, the rest are abysmally priced...

Would need to know TBO well being though as he didn't look too good last time ??

[Kautostar]

I could make a small case for The Bosses Oscar at 14/1 and possible Vanillier at 7s but that would be a stretch, the rest are abysmally priced...

Presuming he can jump fences vanillier surely only has one target. I’d rather take the 10s

[Istabraq]

7s on the short side I'm sure for most people this far out, for any horse, but THYME HILL generally 5s now for the Stayers, bit of value taking 7s?

Possibly BB.
I managed to get that 22/1 Aintree/Cheltenham special onside so I’ve ignored his current price but yes, if you don’t have him already 7/1 any race is probably OK, I’d be looking to press 7/1 if you can perm in multis...

[Istabraq]

Presuming he can jump fences vanillier surely only has one target. I’d rather take the 10s

One target ? You mean the old RSA ?
I make him a big player in the NH Chase and would expect him to stay the trip so for me he has 2 viable options, which one they have in mind is a guess up at the minute...

[Big Bucks]

Possibly BB.
I managed to get that 22/1 Aintree/Cheltenham special onside so I’ve ignored his current price but yes, if you don’t have him already 7/1 any race is probably OK, I’d be looking to press 7/1 if you can perm in multis...

I actually got a bit on that myself ista, I'm going to add a few pts on to top up on him at 7s as think once they catch on that price will go to around 4s.