2022 Handicaps

[darlojim]

Can this thread at least be made members only?

I fear some prices will be gone by the time the markets get introduced

It's a very frustrating situation isnt it.

Are there statistics on how many people view the forum on a daily basis who aren't members?

[isitmarchyet]

It's a very frustrating situation isnt it.

Are there statistics on how many people view the forum on a daily basis who aren't members?

If you click the Who's Online tab at the top it'll tell you the live stats. Currently 105 members and 484 guests...

[darlojim]

If you click the Who's Online tab at the top it'll tell you the live stats. Currently 105 members and 484 guests...

Wow that is a absolute army of lurkers!

Inevitable prices are going to vanish with that amount of people feeding off the forum info.

[jono]

Wow that is a absolute army of lurkers!

Inevitable prices are going to vanish with that amount of people feeding off the forum info.

The numbers this forum hits.
Particularly in comparison to others, is nuts.

Which is good of course. Just not for this thread

[jrjr]

I agree (about moving this thread to the member's section), not been a terribly regular poster but hoping to do so more frequently as we move forwards. Another option would be to put the thread on hold until NRNB kicks in and the handicap markets have had a chance to properly form - then reposition it in the Member's Section.

[fatherjohn]

Wow that is a absolute army of lurkers!

Inevitable prices are going to vanish with that amount of people feeding off the forum info.

I've also noticed some racing faces talk on twitter seem to regular update on topics hours after they are discussed in this forum.

the least they can do is contribute a bit to its upkeeping

[Lobos]

And then we see the Grand annual winner in the 3-35.

1,000,000%They'll surely save him now for the race itself.The minute prices go up we should lump on.

[Stormez]

Can this thread at least be made members only?

I fear some prices will be gone by the time the markets get introduced

Think Spectre should keep his ‘Doing a Naiad’ thread on the members section too!

[Blackdownhills]

What did people think of ontheropes today? Seemed to get outpaced but stayed on at the end. Still consider him firmly in the the NHC picture.
I'll be rewatching today's racing when I get chance, remastered and demachine on the list going forward for me for March

[Fatcatshat]

Without trying to wrestle the title of “voice of reason” from a far more respected member than me, (especially as I haven’t posted for absolutely ages for various reasons!) but people need to get some perspective on this fear of ‘lurkers’…

A blind man could’ve seen that in the 3.35 so you don’t need to be a lurker to see it’s well handicapped! There’s also been talk of this forum being the only possible reason for moving the price on a well touted/well bred Mullins bumper horse. You have people with Twitter blue ticks talking about it, one with 35k followers… it’s not just 400 lurkers moving that price! Markets are thin, and it only takes a few hundred 10 & 20 quid bets to rack up a decent liability at 25/1; it’s not inconceivable a bookmaker would want to manage that ante post book and trim the price, especially as it’s doesn’t take a whole load of imagination to see that going off at a 10th of that price.

I would also be staggered if bookies were reading this for info too, I think that’s an almost fanciful suggestion to be frank, it’s like suggesting the Goldman Sachs traders go on Reddit for share tips! There’s some amazingly knowledgable posters on here, and maybe even some industry professionals, but this is a recreational platform nonetheless.

I know it doesn’t make a difference who moves the price, once it’s gone it’s gone, I just wanted to throw this out there as this particular point has morphed into an echo-chamber of its own!

Ps, I’m certainly not digging anyone out here, especially Spectre on the point on the bumper, I respect your opinion immensely.

[JackieMoon33]

Without trying to wrestle the title of “voice of reason” from a far more respected member than me, (especially as I haven’t posted for absolutely ages for various reasons!) but people need to get some perspective on this fear of ‘lurkers’…

A blind man could’ve seen that in the 3.35 so you don’t need to be a lurker to see it’s well handicapped! There’s also been talk of this forum being the only possible reason for moving the price on a well touted/well bred Mullins bumper horse. You have people with Twitter blue ticks talking about it, one with 35k followers… it’s not just 400 lurkers moving that price! Markets are thin, and it only takes a few hundred 10 & 20 quid bets to rack up a decent liability at 25/1; it’s not inconceivable a bookmaker would want to manage that ante post book and trim the price, especially as it’s doesn’t take a whole load of imagination to see that going off at a 10th of that price.

I would also be staggered if bookies were reading this for info too, I think that’s an almost fanciful suggestion to be frank, it’s like suggesting the Goldman Sachs traders go on Reddit for share tips! There’s some amazingly knowledgable posters on here, and maybe even some industry professionals, but this is a recreational platform nonetheless.

I know it doesn’t make a difference who moves the price, once it’s gone it’s gone, I just wanted to throw this out there as this particular point has morphed into an echo-chamber of its own!

Ps, I’m certainly not digging anyone out here, especially Spectre on the point on the bumper, I respect your opinion immensely.

There is certainly some substance here as I mentioned on the bumper thread that word was out on Twitter around the same time the first post was put up on here (Willies bumper horse out of Quevega).

I follow a few people on Twitter and it’s a little blinkered to think that the FJ forum is the only place where knowledgeable people post things. For a lot of people they want the adulation and greater engagement of Twitter so prefer that platform to something like a forum community; it’s as much about ego for them as providing great insight. I’d say market movements are a combination of many platforms, posters and tweeters. We shouldn’t get too hung up on it as the horse has already bolted and we’ll never know what the source of the market move is. I’ve no idea what the numbers are relating to visits to this site and how many are unique etc, but some of those Twitter chaps do have a wide audience and lots of engagement. Whether they come to the same conclusions as posters on here or rip them off, we’ll never know and there is nothing that can be done as, even hiding posts behind the members section, doesn’t stop those people just creating an account.

Keep doing the great work and don’t worry why a market has moved. If you want a safety net then make sure you get your own money down before posting anything insightful on here; no one would begrudge anyone of that.

[Quevega]

Without trying to wrestle the title of “voice of reason” from a far more respected member than me, (especially as I haven’t posted for absolutely ages for various reasons!) but people need to get some perspective on this fear of ‘lurkers’…

A blind man could’ve seen that in the 3.35 so you don’t need to be a lurker to see it’s well handicapped! There’s also been talk of this forum being the only possible reason for moving the price on a well touted/well bred Mullins bumper horse. You have people with Twitter blue ticks talking about it, one with 35k followers… it’s not just 400 lurkers moving that price! Markets are thin, and it only takes a few hundred 10 & 20 quid bets to rack up a decent liability at 25/1; it’s not inconceivable a bookmaker would want to manage that ante post book and trim the price, especially as it’s doesn’t take a whole load of imagination to see that going off at a 10th of that price.

I would also be staggered if bookies were reading this for info too, I think that’s an almost fanciful suggestion to be frank, it’s like suggesting the Goldman Sachs traders go on Reddit for share tips! There’s some amazingly knowledgable posters on here, and maybe even some industry professionals, but this is a recreational platform nonetheless.

I know it doesn’t make a difference who moves the price, once it’s gone it’s gone, I just wanted to throw this out there as this particular point has morphed into an echo-chamber of its own!

Ps, I’m certainly not digging anyone out here, especially Spectre on the point on the bumper, I respect your opinion immensely.

I'm in agreement, it's mostly paranoia and being a little insular, which is to be expected on a forum like this. The only thing I'll add is that I personally don't think it takes much money to move these prices, and I'm sure certain accounts are monitored (although this could also be paranoia).
I'd guess when a member gets a horse quoted though and posts on here and within half an hour the price moves then that's probably just members and the odd lurker, but probably just members, so it will happen. Lurkers are members that just haven't joined anyway

I do think it would be better if we held our horses sometimes though, and I try not to put stuff on this thread too much, except the blindingly obvious. It would probably be better to let the markets form themselves on occasions, and not flag horses of interest by early price requests.

Anyway Kevloaf can you please add "assistant to the self appointed voice of reason" to Fatcats name please.

[Garrison Savannah]

And then we see the Grand annual winner in the 3-35.

Would need to tidy up his jumping, won’t get away with walking through 2 out in the GA

[Quevega]

Would need to tidy up his jumping, won’t get away with walking through 2 out in the GA

I'm not sure that's what I'd class as walking through a fence, as he hardly broke stride. And hurdled most fences like these French types tend to do.
Would you not back him for that reason alone ?
Bit fussy. I reckon.

[Spectre]

No problem even if you were Fatcatshat. You're entitled to take a different view, and I wouldn't take offence.

It's the timing that's important here. You're right, a number of 'blue tick' twitter posters will move markets, but you're wrong to say FJ doesn't too. The amount of traffic at any one time on here is incredibly high. and Fat Jockey has been the come to place for anyone interested in Festival antepost betting. Kevloaf has some very revealing stats with regards the volume of individual people who are following the forum, and it's not 400, it's many thousands every single day.

In terms of markets moving Q, a combination of well known twitter accounts, Fat Jockey members, and Fat Jockey lurkers will do that. In fact it does do that. As you suggest, it doesn't take too much money for a market to move, and there's some truth in that, and as Jackie has said both Fat Jockey and some well known Twitter accounts posted about Facile Vega being priced up before the price change. But it's still true that quite literally 10 minutes after it was posted on here by the person who requested the price, the price had gone.

Timing of posts and the move in markets is important. Some very well known 'twitterers' seem to post views that have been posted on here very quickly after they are a hot topic of debate. I'm aware that some of said 'twitterers' are members on here without directly contributing, and are very happy to use information from here and then post it on their twitter accounts as fresh content. I have no problem with that if they have the balls to front up and say what they think on here. But they add literally nothing, and just feed off the the forum. The very same accounts that are contributing to quick market moves. So yes, I am calling those guys out to express their views before they shamelessly take and use the content, otherwise I might just start linking the content from here with the timing of it to their accounts, and use their accounts as a platform to advertise the forum as a better and quicker place to get the same information. Information works two ways, and what helps you can also hurt you.

Moving content to the Members section doesn't necessarily stop this, and to be honest, we're all free to talk about horse racing as we wish, to whoever we want to. It's not a closed shop, so I'm not completely in favour of that kind of move. I think ultimately it's detrimental to getting people involved. But having a thread for information that's tucked away somewhere for members who contribute to the forum is okay with me if other people are using information and essentially plagiarising it to promote as their own. I have found instances where things have been literally cut an pasted lazily word for word from Fat Jockey well known Twitter onto twitter accounts, and I have also posted a couple of things on here myself out of curiosity to see how the information is used and who has used it out on the twitter stratosphere. Essentially I am one hundred percent confident that a few well known accounts use the information from here and post it, and then move markets. I've also heard posts on here literally said word for word on podcasts too. In addition to that, another well known 'personality' is also promoting exactly what we do and using the information from here for his 'bookmaker' sponsored' antepost Cheltenham posts and recommended bets. Therefore the combined use of information leaves me completely certain that Fat Jockey moves markets, even if at times it's indirectly.

It may also be true that some accounts on here are also monitored. It doesn't take a genius to figure out who some of us are, and there are some very influential people on Fat jockey's who can cause bookmakers to rack up some quick liabilities. If I were a prominent bookmaker I'd certainly want some of the accounts from people here monitored and in-play to stay ahead of information and views that will hit the public domain.

Finally, I have no 'fear of lurkers'. I would want to encourage any lurkers to join in though, but also respect that not everyone is comfortable interacting on a public forum. We're all made differently. And busy lives and circumstance can make it hard to contribute. Every successful forum has a number of people who look in before they take the plunge and join though, and Fat Jockey has significantly more than most, which is testament to both the quality and quantity of information. And long may that continue.