2022 Novice Chase Division

[charlie]

Are you thinking Arkle or Champion Hurdle ?

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[Lobos]

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Ah yes, silly me. So Appreciate It going for Champion Hurdle in your eyes then ?

[charlie]

Ah yes, silly me. So Appreciate It going for Champion Hurdle in your eyes then ?

No way, I think Appreciate It will go over fences, and go up in trip. Appreciate It is clearly very very good, but there's no doubt in my mind he was a 7yo bullying a shit division of younger 2 milers last season. Whenever he's faced proper opposition he's been beaten. He's lightly raced and he's been placed superbly by Willie, and its not his fault he's been racing vs rubbish, but next season looks really competitive and I think they'll be one or two too quick for him in an Arkle, so in my eyes the Marsh or even RSA are more likely.

[Garrison Savannah]

The Arkle market is due a shake up surely?

Appreciate a strong 3/1 fav
Bob Olinger 8/1 - 10/1 and could go anywhere?
My Drogo 8/1 - 11/1 probably going further if he’s a GC horse?
Quilixios 8/1 - 12/1 staying hurdling ?
Ferny Hollow 10/1 - 14/1 fit? Staying hurdling?
Monmiral 10/1 - 16/1 aimed at Aintree?

25/1 bar

An awful lot of questions still to be answered! Would love to know plans for Ferny Hollow.

Is it as simple as wait for the day and lump on Appreciate It….

[Lobos]

GS , please see Charlie's post above yours. Appreciate It target not confirmed yet either. I'm beginning to think Bob Ollinger could end up in the Arkle now..........

[ComplyOrDie]

No way, I think Appreciate It will go over fences, and go up in trip. Appreciate It is clearly very very good, but there's no doubt in my mind he was a 7yo bullying a shit division of younger 2 milers last season. Whenever he's faced proper opposition he's been beaten. He's lightly raced and he's been placed superbly by Willie, and its not his fault he's been racing vs rubbish, but next season looks really competitive and I think they'll be one or two too quick for him in an Arkle, so in my eyes the Marsh or even RSA are more likely.

IF Ferny Hollow stays over hurdles what exactly should worry Appreciate It in the Arkle?

I've backed a fair few in behind Appreciate It should something happen to him, but for the many just in behind him in the betting it is more likely they go elsewhere, IMO, than Appreciate It stepping up in trip.

[ToniC]

As somebody has alluded to, last year was a dire division of 2m novice hurdlers… well I suppose that is what will be making up this years crop of 2m novice chasers. No doubt appreciate it would be effective over further too but he destroyed the supreme field over 2 miles… don’t really see the need to complicate things stepping up in trip and potentially be taking on the likes of Bob Olinger. As for Ferny hollow, personally I think a novice Chase campaign makes sense, to stay over hurdles he would be forced to compete against experienced hurdlers in open company having only completed one race over hurdles under rules

[Garrison Savannah]

GS , please see Charlie's post above yours. Appreciate It target not confirmed yet either. I'm beginning to think Bob Ollinger could end up in the Arkle now..........

Yes I agree it’s not certain. However, I see no reason why Appreciate It shouldn’t bully an Arkle. The Marsh and BANC are far more stacked than the Arkle, so why would Appreciate It go anywhere else? Who is their in the Arkle market for Appreciate It to be afraid of?

If going for the Marsh Appreciate It would likely be facing a selection from Bob Olinger, My Drogo, Klassical Dream, Galopin Des Champs, Gaillard Du Mesnil, James Du Berlais, etc.

[Garrison Savannah]

Apologies, I keep writing posts without checking for new posts

[Winging The Last]

My view on the Arkle:

Appreciate It - In theory he is bred for further and will most likely go over further in time but I don't see them breaking a winning formula. Mullins has already said last season that he thinks he could be an Arkle horse. He has already shown that he has enough speed over 2 miles plus the Arkle and Supreme are seen as races you need to be able to stay well in to win. I think he will go the Arkle unless he gets beaten by something over 2 miles or something happens to him.

Bob Olinger - In most likelihood he will go the Marsh as he was bought to be a GC horse and the Marsh would be the ideal progression this season for him to go onto that, instead of dropping back down in trip. The only chances I can see him going the Arkle now is if Gin on Lime looks even better throughout the season and they send her the Marsh instead (but I think she will go the Mares now) or AI gets injured or looks to be going the Marsh. The only real BIG threat to Bob in the Novice Chase division is Appreciate It and the same for Appreciate It is Bob so I think HBD and Willie will try their best to keep them apart this season so that each horse has the best chance to win another G1 at Cheltenham.

My Drogo - Bit of an unknown quantity at the top level as he hasn't come up against anything of AI or BO class yet. And I don't see him coming the Arkle either as they see him as a GC type as well so will do the same type of think as with BO, by going down the intermediate rough this season then step up next season

Quilixios - Looks to be staying hurdling following comments from HDB. Only 4 and they may be wanting to just give him a year to grow before fences next year. May go up in trip as the season progresses

Ferny Hollow - Now Willie doesn't like to rush his horses and he likes to follow his routines. I don't believe he will want to send him chasing after just one race over an obstacle (Not including a PTP years ago now), due to his lack experience over them so will want to get a season hurdling into him first, which could lead to him being Willies best hope in the CH. Another reason to me would be that horses are more likely to be injured over fences, and so for a horse that has just come back from an injury a season over the lesser fences would be in theory slightly less of a toll on their body. Also Willie wouldn't like to have AI and Ferny coming up against each other in the Arkle, and wouldn't want to have one of them go up against BO either. Therefore I see him staying hurdling this season with potentially going chasing next year.

Monmiral - Could go either way. I think their is more chance that he stays hurdling as it was mentioned last season but Nicholls may change his mind and I would suspect plans are fluid with him atm, knowing that he will 100% go chasing at some point and its just whether as a 4 year old they think he just needs to mature for another year over hurdles.

Dusart - Only going to mention his as he's been previously mentioned but I see him as better over an intermediate trip like Simonsig, but also I would have my doubts if he will get back to or to a high level after his serious injury last season. These injuries are very hard to recover fully from

In all to me Appreciate It is by far the stand out in the division if he goes there and I think he will come here. I can't see anything currently beating him with him on form and with without any issues, unless BO comes here then it will be very close (but as above I don't believe he will)

[charlie]

IF Ferny Hollow stays over hurdles what exactly should worry Appreciate It in the Arkle?

I've backed a fair few in behind Appreciate It should something happen to him, but for the many just in behind him in the betting it is more likely they go elsewhere, IMO, than Appreciate It stepping up in trip.

Do you think 11/4 about AI is a good bet now COD? If you have bigger, brag away

It's a good question COD, but I don't need opposition to knock AI's price (I've named a few anyway)

A lot can happen in 6 months - I hate that as a reason to oppose an ante post bet, but at prices that short you have to bring it into play.
We've never seen him jump a fence in public - highly likely he'll take to it given his size and breeding, but some don't.
He excelled last year in a division that was pure aids, it was terrible and I think he was flattered slightly (I concede the clock doesn't lie)
When he's faced a proper horse he's lost (Ferny and Envoi)
He can easily step up and go Marsh to slot into Mullins bingo, if thats the way it goes.
He's 7 going on 8 so connections may want to step up and take in a GC at 9, playing into a wider plan.

Is he the right favourite now, yes. Does the Arkle make the most sense now, yes. But that doesn't mean we cant rip him apart at 11/4, we have to. 11/4 ffs, the bookies really are bottle job bastards aren't they (I wonder what price I'd lay him at )

Bob would probably beat AI over 2m. I could see a horse like Aspire Tower doing very well. Ferny will probably be better/faster over 2m. There are others we don't know about yet.

[FinalFurlong91]

I put my ?10 free bet with paddy on ferny hollow to win the champion hurdle this morning at 13/1 so I'm fully expecting willie to announce he's going chasing in the next day or two haha

[Saxon Warrior]

Do you think 11/4 about AI is a good bet now COD? If you have bigger, brag away

It's a good question COD, but I don't need opposition to knock AI's price (I've named a few anyway)

A lot can happen in 6 months - I hate that as a reason to oppose an ante post bet, but at prices that short you have to bring it into play.
We've never seen him jump a fence in public - highly likely he'll take to it given his size and breeding, but some don't.
He excelled last year in a division that was pure aids, it was terrible and I think he was flattered slightly (I concede the clock doesn't lie)
When he's faced a proper horse he's lost (Ferny and Envoi)
He can easily step up and go Marsh to slot into Mullins bingo, if thats the way it goes.
He's 7 going on 8 so connections may want to step up and take in a GC at 9, playing into a wider plan.

Is he the right favourite now, yes. Does the Arkle make the most sense now, yes. But that doesn't mean we cant rip him apart at 11/4, we have to. 11/4 ffs, the bookies really are bottle job bastards aren't they (I wonder what price I'd lay him at )

Bob would probably beat AI over 2m. I could see a horse like Aspire Tower doing very well. Ferny will probably be better/faster over 2m. There are others we don't know about yet.

11/4 is absolute pants.

Shishkin was 6/1 last year.
Bob Olinger is 10/1 Arkle, 4/1 Marsh.
Allaho 4/1 Ryanair.

Ive no interest in backing any horse at 11/4 five or six months in advance.

[Istabraq]

11/4 is absolute pants.

Shishkin was 6/1 last year.
Bob Olinger is 10/1 Arkle, 4/1 Marsh.
Allaho 4/1 Ryanair.

Ive no interest in backing any horse at 11/4 five or six months in advance.

Yeah I agree.
If anyone is desperate to get a shortie onside then Honeysuckle at a similar price has to be a smarter play given the certainty of target and proven superiority over her rivals in the division.
But the point remains, 11/4 bets in October for races in March rarely offer much value…

[Ice]

I put my ?10 free bet with paddy on ferny hollow to win the champion hurdle this morning at 13/1 so I'm fully expecting willie to announce he's going chasing in the next day or two haha

I have also used free bets on ferny for the champion hurdle so like you am now expecting him to go chasing !