2022 Novice Chase Division

[BigChaang]

Very interested to see what happens to Corran Cross in tomorrow's Doncaster Goffs sale. Hoping, if he is sold, that he stays with Gordon to keep the 4 miler dream alive. He could on the other hand be a very early casualty. He was a 'fun' bet but the joke may be on me tomorrow

Nothing wrong with that Lobos , i.m.o ! . we are all on the lookout for a longshot i think , .
One i have a small bet on already is Shearer for the bartlett @ 66-1., with Paul nicholls / owned by the Mc Neill family and ran in this year's bumper .
The Mc Neills love a cheltenham runner for sure .

[Lobos]

Nothing wrong with that Lobos , i.m.o ! . we are all on the lookout for a longshot i think , .
One i have a small bet on already is Shearer for the bartlett @ 66-1., with Paul nicholls / owned by the Mc Neill family and ran in this year's bumper .
The Mc Neills love a cheltenham runner for sure .

At least if that one wins I'll know who you are as you'll be the one running down the rails with your arm raised

[archie]

Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.

https://twitter.com/istabraq_king/status/1435268006146453504?s=21

I think you'll find that I raised this issue last year in the novice hurdlers thread. I knew the family because I had a small share in Myska.

While the general point is valid, BO is now getting towards the stage where he has proved his general soundness but I'd be keeping a wary eye on him if they run him on heavy. Myska did indeed have an issue in her novice hurdle season but she didn't break down. She won a listed race at Taunton on desperate ground and was never the same again. It was a breathing issue (palate) which wasn't fixed by temporary measures (tongue tie) and, because she was leased, Willie said it wasn't worth our while paying for an operation which may or may not have worked.

[ComplyOrDie]

Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.[/LIST]

Archie brought this up last season, after I became all giddy about him for the Ballymore, and rightly so, but it ultimately amounted to nothing (the irony that Ferny Hollow was the one who ended up with a season ending injury after taking on Bob on hurdles debut) and Bob Olinger went on to do the absolute business for us in the Ballymore. It can be worthwhile noting horses getting injured or suffering recurring problems, but suffering a fatality on the gallops or racing can happen to any horse, breeding aside.

Bob Olinger is now 6 races in (incl. his P2P) and is yet to have had one issue. Of course, the chances he will at some point in his career are pretty high, most horses end up with some sort of knock/injury here or there, it's almost an impossibility to avoid, given the nature of the sport.

I wouldn't be viewing his current market price/position worrying about the possibility of a season ending injury, as I could do the same for every horse, and I wouldn't be having a bet on the festival at all if that were the case.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.

https://twitter.com/istabraq_king/status/1435268006146453504?s=21

That's a really good read. Only had time to scan through a few but I'm going to read it again later.

He's the guy who cashed out the Envoi Allen acca for a small fortune.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

That's a really good read. Only had time to scan through a few but I'm going to read it again later.

He's the guy who cashed out the Envoi Allen acca for a small fortune.

Ah interesting, didn’t know that!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Archie brought this up last season, after I became all giddy about him for the Ballymore, and rightly so, but it ultimately amounted to nothing (the irony that Ferny Hollow was the one who ended up with a season ending injury after taking on Bob on hurdles debut) and Bob Olinger went on to do the absolute business for us in the Ballymore. It can be worthwhile noting horses getting injured or suffering recurring problems, but suffering a fatality on the gallops or racing can happen to any horse, breeding aside.

Bob Olinger is now 6 races in (incl. his P2P) and is yet to have had one issue. Of course, the chances he will at some point in his career are pretty high, most horses end up with some sort of knock/injury here or there, it's almost an impossibility to avoid, given the nature of the sport.

I wouldn't be viewing his current market price/position worrying about the possibility of a season ending injury, as I could do the same for every horse, and I wouldn't be having a bet on the festival at all if that were the case.

Thanks COD (and Archie) for highlighting the previous conversations on this. I take what you are saying COD but you seem to be making the same point Lobos is which is that you do not think fragility runs in the family. As I say I’m not sure how true it is but I would be willing to consider it a factor when placing an antespost bet based on evidence provided specific to Bob’s relations.

As with all factors to be considered it has to be price related. It was less of an issue last season at 33/1 than this season at 4/1. I might be fortunate in that I am on Bob at a fancy price for the Marsh placed before this year’s Festival and have been topping up over the summer with free bets only. I would not be against a real money top up before his seasonal reappearance if target is reasonably clear but what I’m saying is if I do this I will likely reduce my stake based on this factor, unless anyone can make a case that fragility does not run in the family, and the evidence provided for Bob O’s family injury woes is likely largely coincidental.

[Atlantic Viking]

It's definitely something to bear in mind, thanks for highlighting RC. To those who are more knowledgeable about the breeding side of the game, is 5 half-siblings with runs under their belt a small sample size to be comparing with or pretty standard?

[archie]

https://www.theirishfield.ie/the-big-interview-king-of-castletown-212060/

This is a 5 year old interview with Ken Parkhill, breeder of BO et al. Because he's keen to keep some old bloodlines going, he generally leases out the fillies and mares and they are retired at the first opportunity once they have achieved enough success to make them a broodmare prospect.

If you look at the profile of the dam, Zenaide, the most interesting thing is what the optimum distance of her offspring is judged to be. It will be slightly skewed by the early retirement of most of them.

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/655094/zenaide

[Maxfield]

At the moment Bob Ollinger is just a horse I can’t get involved with. Even though we see the Marsh looks like the best option, I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure Henry De Bromhead’s first ever horse to run in that race was Envoi Allen, which was already a race set in stone for him. He has always favoured the RSA and Arkle, so I just have a feeling he won’t go Marsh.

Plus Henry will really be keeping an eye on where Mullins horses are going as well. I don’t think Bob is the banker everyone thinks he is, as we have Ferny Hollow who has already beaten him and Appreciate It closely matched, and the fact that Honey Suckle is staying over hurdles I can’t see Mullins wasting a year with Ferny & Appreciate trying to take her on, so I can see both going fences, especially as Chevleley Park Stud want their horse to go chasing.

Then we have James Du Berlias who was bought for chasing and I believe is one of the highest rated hurdlers to come from France and the fact that Mullins thought enough of him and was disappointed with his performance in the Champion Hurdle tells me this lad could be real class over a fence and upped in trip. Then of course we have Galopin Des Champs and My Drago who could be potential stars over fences as well. So for me out of all the ante post bets, Bob is the one I’m leaving till much later on in the season. For me the 25/1 e/w that was going recently (now 20/1) for James Du Berlais is the best ante post bet for the Marsh as I believe this is the most likeliest target out off all the above.

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks COD (and Archie) for highlighting the previous conversations on this. I take what you are saying COD but you seem to be making the same point Lobos is which is that you do not think fragility runs in the family. As I say I’m not sure how true it is but I would be willing to consider it a factor when placing an antespost bet based on evidence provided specific to Bob’s relations.

As with all factors to be considered it has to be price related. It was less of an issue last season at 33/1 than this season at 4/1. I might be fortunate in that I am on Bob at a fancy price for the Marsh placed before this year’s Festival and have been topping up over the summer with free bets only. I would not be against a real money top up before his seasonal reappearance if target is reasonably clear but what I’m saying is if I do this I will likely reduce my stake based on this factor, unless anyone can make a case that fragility does not run in the family, and the evidence provided for Bob O’s family injury woes is likely largely coincidental.

I understand that I basically said the same as Lobos, but that's because I don't believe in the 'family fragility' line. I'll take each horse as an individual, that includes performances, which was a good job really, because if I judged Bob Olinger on what his dam had produced (138 highest RPR) before him I probably wouldn't have backed him last season. In turn I mostly use breeding on the dams side to gauge an optimum distance for each horse, and quality produced on the sires side of things. As for injuries I've never, and never will judge a horse for potential to get injured or have problems, based on breeding.

Zenaide has produced three geldings (Bob being one) and three mares. One gelding suffered a fatal injury during a race (something I believe can happen to any horse), and the other gelding has possibly had his issues given the lack of racing and is most probably retired now. Bob on the other hand has already won 5 out of his 6 starts, had no issues, but here we are worried about his fragility still.

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.

[charlie]

I understand that I basically said the same as Lobos, but that's because I don't believe in the 'family fragility' line. I'll take each horse as an individual, that includes performances, which was a good job really, because if I judged Bob Olinger on what his dam had produced (138 highest RPR) before him I probably wouldn't have backed him last season. In turn I mostly use breeding on the dams side to gauge an optimum distance for each horse, and quality produced on the sires side of things. As for injuries I've never, and never will judge a horse for potential to get injured or have problems, based on breeding.

Zenaide has produced three geldings (Bob being one) and three mares. One gelding suffered a fatal injury during a race (something I believe can happen to any horse), and the other gelding has possibly had his issues given the lack of racing and is most probably retired now. Bob on the other hand has already won 5 out of his 6 starts, had no issues, but here we are worried about his fragility still.

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.

I think you are spot on re not believing in the 'family fragility' line, and it being a worry that that needn't exist. I'm all for going over things thoroughly, and looking at every possible angle (not much else to do in September), but the sample size has to big enough to draw meaningful conclusions, and horses get injured all the time, so I'd have to see a similar injury occurring in a large sample size across the same bloodline before I let fragility enter my mind in that type of way. There are so many question marks re ability, target, jumping, ground, run style, competition, breeding etc etc, that it can become easy to over analyse things and this smacks of that IMO.

[Istabraq]

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.

Yep, that’d be my thinking.
Having raised the subject in the first place archie effectively said earlier that any generic weakness should have shown itself by now and the fact the horse has completed six races (inc PTP) with two of those coming at G1 level where the body is stretched against better animals, I think it’s time to ignore the theory the breeding line is weak.
That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on any more prodigy during the early stages of their career…

[Lobos]

COD, I know you are heavily into your breeding and I always look out for your thoughts on certain horses. In respect of Bob Ollinger, on breeding what would YOU say will be his optimum trip ? I have only ever gone on what I see them produce on the racecourse and am convinced he'll appreciate a further step up in distance. In his Ballymore win he got better as the race unfolded and flew up the hill hitting the line with enthusiasm ears pricked. That to me suggests he'll easily get another 3 furlongs and more.

[FinalFurlong91]

COD, I know you are heavily into your breeding and I always look out for your thoughts on certain horses. In respect of Bob Ollinger, on breeding what would YOU say will be his optimum trip ? I have only ever gone on what I see them produce on the racecourse and am convinced he'll appreciate a further step up in distance. In his Ballymore win he got better as the race unfolded and flew up the hill hitting the line with enthusiasm ears pricked. That to me suggests he'll easily get another 3 furlongs and more.

Both his sire and dam sire produced gold cup winners (don cossack and looks like trouble)

but his sire also produced shiskin so plenty of mixed messages there

I can see why people have mentioned the injury worries too tbh almost all of the horses produced by his dam have been fragile and none of them made it to the track more than 6 times