2022 Novice Chase Division

[ComplyOrDie]

I was taking a look through his form the other day COD and I noticed on his last outing the racing post reported he broke a blood vessel. I'm no expert with regards to horses bleeding etc but does that dampen your enthusiasm on him?

Would have to be a small concern. Some horses continue down this path, others it can be a one off. That said, I'm only using free bets on him currently, and I think 40/1 is a risk worth taking with these

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm going to go out on a limb here, stick the tin hat on, and mention the absolutely nut job (going left handed anyway) that is Goshen.

You'll do well to find a horse with as much ability as him yet is as disrespectful of his hurdles as he is.

Goshen obviously has massive concerns, as above his disrespect of his hurdles is not ideal, nor is his running at left handed tracks, for all that he was absolutely fine in the Triumph with the unlucky exception when he unshipped Jamie Moore.

I'm not sure what plans are for him, but if he can learn to respect the bigger obstacles he could make one hell of a chaser, going off from the front as he so normally does.

His breeding suggests he'll take to fences, out of the same dam as Elimay, and being by Authorized is of little concern. His dams sire, Poliglote, the producer of the likes of Politologue, Don Poli & Top Notch, among others.

Assuming he does go over fences I couldn't rule out a step up in trip either, something like the Marsh Novice Chase may be a plan, though he'd have to settle down plenty to see out the trip. If he's unable to settle then the Arkle is a feasible target.

Of course, the one big issue that remains is this 'going left handed' thing, he is currently 1 from 3 going left handed over hurdles when completing, though this should be 2 from 4. Unfortunately the last twice he has been to Cheltenham it has been very significant, especially in the Champion Hurdle this year, where he ruined his chances completely, though still finished ahead of James Du Berlais that day. I'd suggest to take his actual ability on the run at Punchestown, where, as a 5 year old he ran with serious credit when only about 4 lengths off of placing in the Paddy Power Champion Hurdle.

A lot of questions to answer, for sure, and he's not actually priced up for either the Arkle or Marsh yet, but if I could get anything north of 33/1 I think I'd be happy to take a chance on him, and thought he was one worth mentioning.

[Lobos]

Moore has already said Goshen will never go to Cheltenham again though hasn't he ?

[ComplyOrDie]

Moore has already said Goshen will never go to Cheltenham again though hasn't he ?

Possibly so Lobos, in which case we can just ignore the above

Though he wouldn't be the first trainer to backtrack

[JackieMoon33]

It is possible, although I am not sure how much weight you want to give my opinion! Essentially, everything I know about this season's novice chasers was laid out in the previous post. As such, my opinion will be based entirely on a glance at the horse's sire, trainer and damline without any consideration given to the horse's build, manner in which they jump or even the point from which they have to improve. Which is a shame really as the biggest bets I ever had on festival novice chases (back when I used to indulge in such things) were Well Chief (WFA + Taunton performance), Denman (looked exactly how you'd expect a chaser to look) and Sizing Europe (jumped his hurdles like fences). But ask and ye shall receive. Incidentally, as starting point has not been taken into account James du Berlais may find improvement a tighter squeeze whereas something like Fakiera would not need to find a great deal.

Thank you for saying

It is something I have considered and would certainly entertain if given the opportunity, although whatever skills I do possess, networking and self-promotion are not amongst them.

Incidentally, I have, in the past hour-ish, posted my juvenile profiles thing onto a blog and linked it onto twitter, although even though Cheltenham happens to be doing that trending thingamajig, my tweet has not been swept into its gravitational pull

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...28074427207681

But in the spirit of "don't ask, don't get", if anybody who's on twitter wants to like, share, re-tweet, modern gizmo stuff, then that would be nice

Very interesting reading indeed! Would you be able to run Mr Incredible and Gars En Noir through the calculation please? They are my two ‘under the radar’ novice chasers from my early diary entry.

[DeeBee]

Very interesting reading indeed! Would you be able to run Mister Incredible and Gars En Noir through the calculation please? They are my two ‘under the radar’ novice chasers from my early diary entry.

And Kilcruit If you wouldn’t mind

[Kotkijet]

It's occurred to me that in that table, I had meant to have the groups down as "yes/probably/maybe/maybe not/no"... Possibly and maybe are synonyms after all... This should tie in to my assertion that the table can not be taken as gospel as I was indeed tired when I made it! Haven't put anything into the "no" bracket as there was nothing that made me think that a chasing career would certainly end in disappointment. Also worth pointing out that if any horse goes chasing, unless the trainer is a total weapon, that horse will likely have schooled well enough to justify the switch...

Very interesting reading indeed! Would you be able to run Mr Incredible and Gars En Noir through the calculation please? They are my two ‘under the radar’ novice chasers from my early diary entry.

Mr Incredible 5bg Henry De Bromhead p1-0-1 h2-1-1 (-) 139
Westerner (Kalanisi){9}(1.50) 3/1 Be My Belle 3/2 Empire Of Dirt 3/2 Monalee

Trainer and sire each have strong records in chases, both marginally better than in hurdles. Horse comes from a good, old fashioned chasing family.

Verdict = probably/yes

Gars En Noir 5bg W P Mullins h3-1-1 (-) 115
Masked Marvel (Cachet Noir){14-a}(0.44) 3/0 Graine de Beaute 3/1 Sous Officier

Trainer has very strong record in chases, even more so than in hurdles which is also of high standard. Sire has had seven chasers in France thus far (none in GB/IRE), with three winners and overall strike rate of 17.07%. Middling record amongst the sires listed. Winner runner rate better with hurdlers. Not a prolific damline and chasers are fair rather than outstanding.

Verdict = maybe (again, going strictly off pedigree and trainer stats so RPR of 115 would be beatable even if he just wins an ordinary beginners chase. If he has a full-blown hurdles campaign then his benchmark would probably be higher)

And Kilcruit If you wouldn’t mind

Kilcruit 6bg W P Mullins h0-0-0
Stowaway (Broken Hearted){9-c}(0.25) 4/2 Who's To Say 4/3 Scotsirish

Trainer definite positive. Sire has good record which is slightly better with chasers. Family has pointers nearby but none that did anything over regulation fences until Who's To Say (Dan Moore) and Scotsirish (Hilly Way/Normans Grove).

Verdict = maybe

[Lobos]

Kot, I do wonder how 3 time Grand National winner Red Rum would have come out on your chart. I still find it incredible that ,as a 2 year old, he won a 5 furlong sprint race at, all places, Aintree. That is just ridiculous !!!!!

[That Horse]

Kot, I do wonder how 3 time Grand National winner Red Rum would have come out on your chart. I still find it incredible that ,as a 2 year old, he won a 5 furlong sprint race at, all places, Aintree. That is just ridiculous !!!!!

Bataash to come out of retirement to give Galvin a good kicking next April?

[Lobos]

Bataash to come out of retirement to give Galvin a good kicking next April?

I know. It just seems impossible doesn't it.

I was always told that Red Rum was so named as it is Murder backwards. Apparently not. The owner just took the last 3 letters of both the Sire and Dams name. 58 and I'm still learning......

[Kotkijet]

His profile really is one of many curiosities.

He won another two-year-old race at Warwick over seven... He also finished second in a mile contest at three (the longest he was tried on the flat) and second again as a four-year-old in a hurdle race - both at the Grand National meeting. He first attempted three miles at the age of five when unplaced at the 1970 Cheltenham Festival, but would not win over that trip until landing a chase at Catterick in the December of the following year, which probably ties into the notion that a fair amount of stamina comes with age.

His sire Quorum won the Sussex stakes but also produced Beddard, who won the Queen's Vase when it was a proper race, and the Yorkshire Cup winner Quartette. He also had Sequel who was the granddam of dual National runner-up Greasepaint. The dam Mared was by a sprinter and her only win came over seven furlongs, but she was herself out of a half-sister to Spring Offensive who twice landed the Desmond Stakes and won over distances from twelve furlongs to twenty. While her best horses were young sprinters and milers, she also produced the broodmare of the Arc winner Rheingold who himself would get the good jumpers Maiymad (the sire of Ubu III), Mentiroso and Rajania along with the jumps sires Noir et Or, Armistice Day and Gildoran. Retroactively, we can also see that his damline shows up on the relatives list a page or two ago as his thoroughbred family {25} - through the matriarch of Batikia (Red Rum's third dam) is also represented by Golden Cross (3/5), Bimsey (3/6), Total Recall (3/7), Fair Along (3/7), Cloudy Dream (3/7) and Jason The Militant (3/7).

Much of the aforementioned comes from the benefit of hindsight, and a more thorough survey using the Weatherbys horse search and whatever can be found in the Times and Guardian archives would be required to complete a full, contemporary profile. Notwithstanding, Red Rum's dosage index was still a low 0.60 which comes largely due to the presence of Quorum's damsire Bois Roussel who won the 1938 Derby, was the sire of Leger winners Ridge Wood and Tehran, Cup winners French Beige and Woodburn, and was the damsire of St Paddy, Petite Etoile and the 1975 Champion Hurdle third Tree Tangle.

Red Rum is certainly something of an anomaly. although it is noted in Chasers & Hurdlers 1976/77 that Jay Trump, Anglo and Specify were other Grand National winners who raced extensively at two-years-old. Incidentally, their DIs were 3.00, 0.75 and 1.29 so even if Jay Trump's DI is higher by virtue of being American bred, Red Rum was probably the likeliest National winner of those three going off DI alone.

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting that Streets Of Doyen is entered up at Worcester on Sunday, given a chase rating of 142.

I suspect he won't be good enough for any of the top novice races, but certainly one to keep an eye on with a view to a handicap. Appreciate this is the novice chase thread, but he is a novice chaser so thought I'd mention him in here.

[Lobos]

Interesting that Streets Of Doyen is entered up at Worcester on Sunday, given a chase rating of 142.

I suspect he won't be good enough for any of the top novice races, but certainly one to keep an eye on with a view to a handicap. Appreciate this is the novice chase thread, but he is a novice chaser so thought I'd mention him in here.

The 4 miler would suit don't you think?

[ComplyOrDie]

The 4 miler would suit don't you think?

Potentially, yeah Breeding possibly an issue, being by Doyen. I'm not a huge fan of his anyhow.

[Spectre]

Doyen's seem to be real stayers over the stick CoD. Most are up to three miles over hurdles relatively quickly.

Whether Streets Of Doyen is a NH Chase horse remains to be seen of course, but he's one I backed fairly early as a likely type.