2022 Novice Chase Division

[Lobos]

Kot, for us simple people who are very lazy, is it possible for you to just give us a simple yes or no about the horses at the top of the Fez Novice Chase races betting whether you think they would show improved form over fences or not ??? I know it's cheeky but my grandmother always said 'If you don't ask, you don't get'. I'm sure loads on here would be very interested in your response !!!

[Kotkijet]

Kot, for us simple people who are very lazy, is it possible for you to just give us a simple yes or no about the horses at the top of the Fez Novice Chase races betting whether you think they would show improved form over fences or not ??? I know it's cheeky but my grandmother always said 'If you don't ask, you don't get'. I'm sure loads on here would be very interested in your response !!!

It is possible, although I am not sure how much weight you want to give my opinion! Essentially, everything I know about this season's novice chasers was laid out in the previous post. As such, my opinion will be based entirely on a glance at the horse's sire, trainer and damline without any consideration given to the horse's build, manner in which they jump or even the point from which they have to improve. Which is a shame really as the biggest bets I ever had on festival novice chases (back when I used to indulge in such things) were Well Chief (WFA + Taunton performance), Denman (looked exactly how you'd expect a chaser to look) and Sizing Europe (jumped his hurdles like fences). But ask and ye shall receive. Incidentally, as starting point has not been taken into account James du Berlais may find improvement a tighter squeeze whereas something like Fakiera would not need to find a great deal.

Have you considered a career in racing journalism? Your posts are informative, eloquent and engaging. You should give it a go.

Thank you for saying

It is something I have considered and would certainly entertain if given the opportunity, although whatever skills I do possess, networking and self-promotion are not amongst them.

Incidentally, I have, in the past hour-ish, posted my juvenile profiles thing onto a blog and linked it onto twitter, although even though Cheltenham happens to be doing that trending thingamajig, my tweet has not been swept into its gravitational pull

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1427728074427207681

But in the spirit of "don't ask, don't get", if anybody who's on twitter wants to like, share, re-tweet, modern gizmo stuff, then that would be nice

[Atlantic Viking]

Quite impressed that you only have 12 followers but one of them is Lydia H!

Lovely stuff to see Bob in the 'yes' column!

[Kotkijet]

She was my first follower in fact, despite my not having posted anything at that point. Probably peaked too early... While I imagine it's a professional habit, I do like to think she found the name highly amusing.

[Lobos]

Thanks Kot. Bit rude of me asking but very greatful of your reply. I'm sure everyone on here will take note. Very informative. Every bit helps ! Even more convinced now that Aspire Tower will end up in the Stayers .........I think I'll go in again !

[Lobos]

She was my first follower in fact, despite my not having posted anything at that point. Probably peaked too early... While I imagine it's a professional habit, I do like to think she found the name highly amusing.

I think you underestimate yourself bigtime Kot. Many of these so called experts/professionals/tipping sites have half the knowledge of you and the likes of Saxon. We are privaledged to have you guys on here and should absorb all the info you provide. Cheers.

[Lobos]

If your biggest bets were Denman, Well Chief and Sizing Europe......then I bow to you.

Flash Collonges Paul Nicholls RSA horse then ??? Ummmmm...........where's that oddschecker betting ........

[BigChaang]

Apart from the fact that all my picks are in the " Maybe Not " Column !!! ........ only joking ., That's a very interesting Chart Kotkijet .
And one i'm sure a lot of us will be refering back to as the season goes on. .

[ComplyOrDie]

It is possible, although I am not sure how much weight you want to give my opinion! Essentially, everything I know about this season's novice chasers was laid out in the previous post. As such, my opinion will be based entirely on a glance at the horse's sire, trainer and damline without any consideration given to the horse's build, manner in which they jump or even the point from which they have to improve. Which is a shame really as the biggest bets I ever had on festival novice chases (back when I used to indulge in such things) were Well Chief (WFA + Taunton performance), Denman (looked exactly how you'd expect a chaser to look) and Sizing Europe (jumped his hurdles like fences). But ask and ye shall receive. Incidentally, as starting point has not been taken into account James du Berlais may find improvement a tighter squeeze whereas something like Fakiera would not need to find a great deal.

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

[Lobos]

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

He's certainly one I'll be adding . PN has history in the RSA. Do you think he'll end up there COD ?

[Spectre]

It'll be interesting to see what Nicholls does with his Novice Chasers this season.

Bravemansgame, Barbados Bucks, Threeunderthrufive, and Flash Collonges will need splitting up, and all look likely to be staying chasers.

I think Bravemansgame and Flash Collonges are likely to be the best of them, and perhaps he'll look to split them between the RSA and the Marsh, with one of the other two targeted at the NH Chase.

[Kotkijet]

Thanks Kot. Bit rude of me asking but very greatful of your reply. I'm sure everyone on here will take note. Very informative. Every bit helps ! Even more convinced now that Aspire Tower will end up in the Stayers .........I think I'll go in again !

Cheers Lobos

I am not clued up on the matter but Aspire Tower is still young and his pedigree does not suggest that he's screaming for a trip. I know the gap between two and three miles over hurdles isn't massive given the pace those races are usually run at, and the stayers is often the easiest championship race at the festival. But might Aspire Tower be one of those who is too slow for the best two mile races without having the stamina to fully see out the three?

I think you underestimate yourself bigtime Kot. Many of these so called experts/professionals/tipping sites have half the knowledge of you and the likes of Saxon. We are privaledged to have you guys on here and should absorb all the info you provide. Cheers.

I agree that SW is an absolute dynamo!

While my relationship with my ego is somewhat mercurial, I like to think it's not for nothing that my output often gets a flattering amount of praise. That said, as big a fan of Lydia as I am, the timing of her follow and her (to my knowledge) absence from horsey forums indicates that she has not seen any of the said output...

If your biggest bets were Denman, Well Chief and Sizing Europe......then I bow to you.

I have mentioned that I generally avoid gambling and the main reason is that I am not very good at it... Certainly not the discipline side of things which is essentially non-existent when the ADD rears its buzzy head. The aforementioned three form a very small sample size - due in part to the fact that even when I did gamble, I did not enjoy doing so at the festival for fear of spoiling the fun, and would only bet when I absolutely knew I would get a run for my money. Accordingly, if one was to use my output as a tool in ones own building of an ante-post ledger, it is worth bearing in mind that I can go years without having a penny on at Cheltenham.

I will break one of my cardinal rules here though and reveal that I have had a tenner on Matterhorn for the Triumph as I think his chances of winning the race are currently greater than 1.96%... There's an option to trade out closer the time if he (rather than the likelier Magistrato) ends up being the future chaser sent to Aintree... But there you have it. Matterhorn 50/1, get it while it lasts...

Flash Collonges Paul Nicholls RSA horse then ??? Ummmmm...........where's that oddschecker betting ........

He's in the better chaser pile because Saddler Makers have an outstanding record over fences. On paper, Flash Collonges could do very well over fences as he is by Saddler Maker and closely related to Neptune Collonges who was also under the care of Paul Nicholls. However, I have noticed that while Saddler Maker has had horses placed at Cheltenham, including at the festival, they don't win there all too often. Of his nine who achieved RPRs of 150 and above over fences, their overall record at Cheltenham stands at one win from thirty-eight. Obviously, this is not an exact science and Flash Collonges could be an exception - indeed, he is also related to Hussard Collonges who won the race in 2002. Although apart from his debut win at Exeter, his form has all been on flat tracks so unless he proves himself in the Cotswolds, this factor would always be at the back of my mind.

Notwithstanding, I am very much looking forward to him this season and if I was into the whole trading thing, I might be tempted to back him before his chasing debut and possibly lay off if he goes to Cheltenham before March. He could also be of interest in those pre-Christmas graded chases they have at Wincanton, Newbury and Doncaster...

Apart from the fact that all my picks are in the " Maybe Not " Column !!! ........ only joking ., That's a very interesting Chart Kotkijet .
And one i'm sure a lot of us will be refering back to as the season goes on. .

Cheers Big Chaang

But whatever you do, don't keep referring back to that chart. I know the processes that went into making it on the fly and can tell you that I wouldn't want my own money anywhere near that thing

As I said, it made exclusive use of the information made in this post

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/304971-2022-novice-chase-division?p=313251#post313251

Each horse was given little more than a cursory glance at the horse's pedigree and trainer chart, and this was done during the latter stages of a long day when I was already tired. The process did not adhere to any rigorous practice in consistency and no other factors were taken into account. By all means, look at the chart then check that you agree with my categorisation based on their source. But I am essentially washing my hands of that thing... Unless it makes everyone here a lot of money in which case gifts will be readily accepted

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

Just covered him above but I agree he ticks all the right boxes to make a chaser... Just a question mark hovering over Cheltenham but if it turns out he does perform there then he could be something very exciting.

[ComplyOrDie]

It'll be interesting to see what Nicholls does with his Novice Chasers this season.

Bravemansgame, Barbados Bucks, Threeunderthrufive, and Flash Collonges will need splitting up, and all look likely to be staying chasers.

I think Bravemansgame and Flash Collonges are likely to be the best of them, and perhaps he'll look to split them between the RSA and the Marsh, with one of the other two targeted at the NH Chase.

This I agree with. I'm not convinced by Barbados Bucks or Threeunderthrufive yet, though do have the latter down as a potential for a handicap at the festival next season. Barbados Bucks is yet another Getaway progeny who has been beaten twice at Cheltenham now already in his short career. Wonder if he'll be one saved for Aintree, if good enough.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's certainly one I'll be adding . PN has history in the RSA. Do you think he'll end up there COD ?

I think so, provided he takes to fences (no reason why not). I think Bravemansgame will follow the Cyrname/Frodon path, and stick to intermediate distances, for the early stages of his chase career at least. Whether he turns up at Cheltenham again is anyone's guess.

[Big Chac]

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

I was taking a look through his form the other day COD and I noticed on his last outing the racing post reported he broke a blood vessel. I'm no expert with regards to horses bleeding etc but does that dampen your enthusiasm on him?