2022 Novice Chase Division

[The Fellow]

i asked him and he assumed Appreciate It was ok , said he doesn't know for certain either way between hurdles or fences ,he doesn't even think he is back at Willie's, says its too early yet , Willie gets them back a little later

[SeanRock]

Will get around to putting together my diary shortly but one price stood out to me at first glance in a few months...

Farouk D’Alene NHC @ 40/1with Unibet is a no brainer, Vanillier was sick at Leopardstown but was fit & well at Limerick so the form couldn’t be stronger!

[Saxon Warrior]

Will get around to putting together my diary shortly but one price stood out to me at first glance in a few months...

Farouk D’Alene NHC @ 40/1with Unibet is a no brainer, Vanillier was sick at Leopardstown but was fit & well at Limerick so the form couldn’t be stronger!

Is he better right-handed?
Its only the once he has jumped on a left-handed track though, so not much to go on.

Its probably the reason he is such a big price.
One good round left-handed first time out and his odds could tumble.

Navan Grade 3 Monksfield Novice Hurdle - his only Left-Handed Hurdles run.
“Didn't jump well, jumped right throughout, led, headed after 5 out, disputing second after 4 out, pushed along after 3 out, close up when mistake 2 out, soon ridden, no extra and weakened run-in”

“A funny sort of a race. They didn't go quick, the favourite Farouk D'Alene jumped badly out to his right at every flight.”

“Farouk D'Alene kept jumping out to his right and seem to hate every yard of this. He must have been feeling something.”

I didn’t hear of a reason expressed for that by the connections though.

[SeanRock]

Is he better right-handed?
Its only the once he has jumped on a left-handed track though, so not much to go on.

Its probably the reason he is such a big price.
One good round left-handed first time out and his odds could tumble.

Navan Grade 3 Monksfield Novice Hurdle - his only Left-Handed Hurdles run.
“Didn't jump well, jumped right throughout, led, headed after 5 out, disputing second after 4 out, pushed along after 3 out, close up when mistake 2 out, soon ridden, no extra and weakened run-in”

“A funny sort of a race. They didn't go quick, the favourite Farouk D'Alene jumped badly out to his right at every flight.”

“Farouk D'Alene kept jumping out to his right and seem to hate every yard of this. He must have been feeling something.”

I didn’t hear of a reason expressed for that by the connections though.

At the prices it’s a risk worth taking for me SW, Gigginstown tend to buy with an eye for chasing too essentially!

[Saxon Warrior]

At the prices it’s a risk worth taking for me SW, Gigginstown tend to buy with an eye for chasing too essentially!

Could well have been a one-off.

And 40/1 is the right price to have a crack at one.

[nortonscoin200]

How big an advantage do second season novices have in the National Hunt Chase?

Decided to do a bit of digging after Saxon Warrior mentioned CAPODANNO was on his radar for next year's Festival. It's been suggested (not directly by SW) a tilt at the not-quite four-miler could well be on the cards for Capodanno bearing in mind both owner and trainer have a close affinity with the race.

The bookies seem to think second season novices don't have any advantage at all - in fact quite the reverse.

Eight horses are currently quoted at 25-1 or less for the NHC and seven of them have yet to make their debut in a chase.

The exception is RUN WILD FRED (I'm among a lot of FJs already on board) who has already run 7 times over fences, the latest a second place finish in the Irish National at Fairyhouse.

So are the bookies likely to be right or wrong in their assumption that an inexperienced novice can rock up and win a stamina-sapping race which involves jumping 23 fences round Cheltenham?

Here is a pre-race profile for each NHC winner during the last decade.


2021

GALVIN (aged 7): Gordon Elliott second season chaser who had run 8 times over fences. Began last season in a chase on July 8, Ran in 4 chases leading up to the Festival, including a win at Cheltenham.

Previous Festival form: 6th in the 2019 Ballymore, 2nd in the 2020 Northern Trust Novices Handicap Chase.


2020

RAVENHILL (10): Gordon Elliott first season chaser. Ran in 6 chases leading up to the Festival - including 2nd in the Kerry National. Made chase debut on May 30. Previously ran in 7 point-to-points in 2015 and 2016.

No previous Festival form.


2019

LE BREUIL (7): Ben Pauling first season chaser. Ran in 5 novice chases leading up to the Festival, including 2 at Cheltenham (finished 2 2). Made chasing debut on November 4.

Previous Festival form: 16th in the 2018 Coral Cup.


2018

RATHVINDEN (10): Willie Mullins second season chaser. Ten runs over fences before the NHC. Started the season on May 30 and ran 9 times leading up to Cheltenham. Fell at the last when set to win only ptp start in 2013.

Previous Festival form: 3rd in the 2014 Ballymore.


2017

TIGER ROLL (7): Gordon Elliott first season chaser. Ran 10 times over fences leading up to the Festival - including one at Cheltenham (3rd) - after making chase debut on May 31.

Previous Festival form: 13th in 2015 Stayers Hurdle, won the 22014 Triumph Hurdle.


2016

MINELLA ROCCO (6): Jonjo O'Neill first season chaser. Four runs over fences leading up to the Festival - two of them at Cheltenham (PU and 6th). Made chase debut on November 15. Won his only ptp start in March 2014.

No previous Festival form.


2015

CAUSE OF CAUSES (7): Gordon Elliott second season chaser. Ran in 10 previous chases. Ran in 1 chase that season on November 30. Only other run over hurdles in January.

Previous Festival form: 2nd in the 2014 Kim Muir, 7th in the 2013 Supreme.


2014

MIDNIGHT PRAYER (9): Alan King first season chaser. Four runs in chases leading up to the Festival - made debut over fences on October 31.

No previous Festival form.


2013:

BACK IN FOCUS (8): Willie Mullins first season chaser. 3 previous runs over fences - made chasing debut on September 20. Ran in 3 ptps in 2010 and 2011.

No previous Festival form.


2012:

TEAFORTHREE (8): Rebecca Curtis first season chaser. Ran in 5 chases - 1 at Cheltenham (2nd) leading up to the Festival. Made chasing debut on October 22. Also ran in 4 ptps in 2009 and 2010.

Previous Festival form: 8th in the 2011 Albert Bartlett.



STATISTICAL SUMMARY


Seven of the last 10 winners have been first season chasers, the others were in their second season over fences.

Since the race was upgraded to Grade 2 status in 2017 3 of the 5 winners were first season chasers, 2 were having their second season over fences.

The number of previous chase runs for each winner is (2021 first): 8,6,5,10, 10,4,10,4,3,5.



Five of the 10 winners had previously run in point-to-points.

I'm not sure of the significance of this, but if you add the ptp starts to each winner their fencing experience reads: 8,13, 5,11, 10,5,10,4, 6,9.

So, apart from Midnight Prayer, they have all had at least 5 runs in chases/ptps before winning the National Hunt Chase.

Six of the 10 winners have been trained by Gordon (4) and Willie(2).

Age of the winners:

4 aged 7
2 aged 8
2 aged 10
1 aged 6
1 aged 10


4 of the 10 winners were placed at a previous Festival - 2 over fences and 2 over hurdles.

Five had a prep over fences at Cheltenham the season they won the NHC.


CURRENT MARKET LEADERS CHASING/PTP EXPERIENCE


STATTLER (6): Trained by Willie Mullins. Best price 14-1. 0 chase or ptp form.

VANILLIER (6) Gavin Cromwell. Best price 16-1. 0 chases. Ran in 2 ptps in 2019.

RUN WILD FRED (7) Gordon Elliott. Best price 16-1. 7 chases and 1 ptp.

GENTLEMANSGAME (5): Mouse Morris. Best price 20-1. 0 chases. Won his only ptp in 2020.

ASHDALE BOB (6). Jessie Harrington. Best price 25-1. 0 chase or ptp form.

FURY ROAD (7): Gordon Elliott.Best price 25-1. 0 chases, 2 ptps in 2018.

JUNGLE BOOGIE (7): Willie Mullins. Best price 25-1. 0 chase or ptp form.

CAPODANNO (5): Willie Mullins.Best price 25-1.0 chase or ptp form.


CONCLUSIONS


Four of the 8 market leaders for the National Hunt Chase have yet to tackle a fence in public.

Three of them are trained by Willie - Stattler, Jungle Boogie and Capodanno.

In 2020 Willie's first season novice Carefully Selected (aged 8) went off odds-on-favourite after 3 chase victories. He also ran twice in ptps (finished 21) in 2017. But he was undone by jumping errors and unseated at the last when beaten.

Willie's two winners of the NHC were at different ends of the scale in terms of chasing experience.

Rathvinden was a 10-year-old with 10 chasing runs and a ptp under his belt. He also had placed form at the Festival over hurdles, albeit 4 years earlier.

Back In Focus was a lightly raced 8-year-old but even he had 3ptps and 3 chase runs under his belt.

So for Stattler, Jungle Boogie or Capodanno to figure in the NHC I'd have thought Willie will need to get a minimum of 4 chase runs into them between now and the Festival and I'm not sure that's the way the maestro will go about their campaign.

And even then, the stats show only Midnight Prayer has managed to win the NHC on the back of just 4 chase/ptp starts in the last 10 years.

As Capodanno is only a a 5-year-old I'd have thought it even more unlikely that he will rush him for a crack at the NHC - even though he's owned by JP.

Run Wild Fred ticks all the boxes regarding trainer and chasing experience. He could also end up being ridden by the best amateur jockey. But he has never raced at Cheltenham. It'll be interesting if Gordon sends him over for a prep run.

Fury Road has a couple of ptp runs to his name but has failed to finish his last 2 starts and imo he's not a betting proposition until he shows some spark.

Of the others, Vanillier is probably the most likely contender based on his hurdling form, likely ability to get the NHC trip and 2 ptp starts. But it's a shade surprising that no Albert Bartlett horses have made the winners enclosure in the NHC in the last decade.

But if Gentlemansgame or Ashdale Bob end of winning the NHC they will need to have a busy chasing campaign or buck most of the chasing /ptp experience stats.

It may well be that the NHC winner is currently priced 33-1 or longer.

But looking at the current market leaders RUN WILD FRED (16-1 with B365) has a lot going for him.

He ran 7 times last season finishing with runner up spot in the Thyestes (heavy) and then the Irish National (yielding).

I wouldn't be surprised if he is given a lighter campaign this season and it'll be interesting to see if he gets an entry in the 3m novice chase which Galvin won at Cheltenham's October meeting last year.

[Istabraq]

How big an advantage do second season novices have in the National Hunt Chase?

Was Galvin not a trend buster in this regard ?
I think they expected him to win the 20f novice handicap chase at the 2020 festival and when he was beat and Covid took charge it left them with the perfect opportunity to utilise his novice status that they didn't expect.

Rathvinden could be a little bit of a red herring in that he had one sole beginners chase run in which he was injured and pulled up with a circuit to run.

Cause of Causes was an odd one, having run countless times the previous Summer without losing his maiden tag he was backed to win the Kim Muir but was edged out by Spring Heeled which enabled him to target the 4 miler the following season.

Like everything it's always worth exploring angles but the second season chaser thing isn't one for me, what I do think is that chasing experience is crucial and horses who attempt the race after one or two chase starts will get found out for lack of experience, the more chase starts the better and ideally in a big field too...

[nortonscoin200]

Was Galvin not a trend buster in this regard ?
I think they expected him to win the 20f novice handicap chase at the 2020 festival and when he was beat and Covid took charge it left them with the perfect opportunity to utilise his novice status that they didn't expect.

Rathvinden could be a little bit of a red herring in that he had one sole beginners chase run in which he was injured and pulled up with a circuit to run.

Cause of Causes was an odd one, having run countless times the previous Summer without losing his maiden tag he was backed to win the Kim Muir but was edged out by Spring Heeled which enabled him to target the 4 miler the following season.

Like everything it's always worth exploring angles but the second season chaser thing isn't one for me, what I do think is that chasing experience is crucial and horses who attempt the race after one or two chase starts will get found out for lack of experience, the more chase starts the better and ideally in a big field too...

Point well made Ista.

You got to the heart of the matter while I failed in a clumsy attempt to say the same thing.

The second-season chaser idea isn't strictly relevant - it's how much chasing experience they have under their belt.

And the importance of chasing experience for a potential NHC winner is really what I was trying to determine.

I agree that the NHC is a race many horses aren't specifically aimed at long-term - they end up there because either they're not considered good enough for the RSA or failed to lose their novice tag for whatever reason.

But Gordon showed with Galvin that he is prepared to target the race 8 or 9 months in advance - if he's got the right horse - and he certainly seems to have another who fits the bill in Run Wild Free.

[Kautostar]

Dickie diver could be an interesting second season chaser. Couldn’t squeeze enough runs in to qualify for this last season after a few niggling injuries.
Five o’clock would be another on my radar and I would imagine it will be between him and Stattler to be the Mullins horse here.

[Istabraq]

Point well made Ista.

You got to the heart of the matter while I failed in a clumsy attempt to say the same thing.
-season chaser idea isn't strictly relevant

Your point was not clumsy in any way, it was thought provoking and very valid.

I personally think that any second season chaser that ends up here, or indeed any festival novice chase, is probably not by design, but, if they do they’re well
worth a second look.

Several members jumped on the Galvin bandwagon last Summer but I do think the exceptional circumstances around the Covid shutdown pretty much made Elliotts mind up for him.

Gaultstats has some great info a few years ago about inexperienced horses and their struggles in the NH Chase, this is a race along with the Potato race that racecourse experience is invaluable…

[ComplyOrDie]

Dickie diver could be an interesting second season chaser. Couldn’t squeeze enough runs in to qualify for this last season after a few niggling injuries.
Five o’clock would be another on my radar and I would imagine it will be between him and Stattler to be the Mullins horse here.

Yeah, I do like Dickie Diver, and think he is one to bare in mind.

Also, a couple that are not priced up but could be of interest, Sempo, of Joseph O'Brien, who is a second season novice, but plenty of experience now and ran well enough in the Albert Bartlett of 2020 behind Monkfish, although he'd have some ground to make up on Run Wild Fred based on Irish Grand National running. Also Braid Blue who would be a second season novice having had two less than inspiring starts over fences last August, although hasn't been seen since, so his well being needs to be confirmed, but his form over hurdles was continuously improving prior to going over the larger obstacles, including a class 2 Ballymore Hurdle 2nd at the October Cheltenham meeting.

[Spectre]

Just a thought to add to your analysis NC. How many second season chasers ran in the NH Chase in the seasons when a first season novice won? For example Midnight Prayer is only a trends buster if he was running against experienced novices. If he wasn't, one had to win.

I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.

[Istabraq]

I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.

Are you suggesting you would cut off 16/1 and above shots from a betting perspective ?

[nortonscoin200]

Just a thought to add to your analysis NC. How many second season chasers ran in the NH Chase in the seasons when a first season novice won? For example Midnight Prayer is only a trends buster if he was running against experienced novices. If he wasn't, one had to win.

I suspect when you isolate the second season novices that have ran ion the last 10-15 years they have a remarkably good record. Probably even more so if you cut them off at say 16/1 or 20/1.

Only 4 second season chasers ran against Midnight Prayer in a field of 15. None of them were fancied.

They were:

4th 100-1 shot Adrenalin Flight who was beaten 2 1/4 lengths.
5th Tony Martin's 33-1 shot Living Next Door who was beaten 2 1/2 lengths
Fell 33-1 outsider Merlin's Wish who was losing his place when he came down at the 12th
PU 25-1 shot Firm Order.

It was a very decent field too.

Foxrock was unplaced 3-1 favourite, Shotgun Paddy was a neck second, Willie's Suntiep was a close 3rd, Jonjo's Shutthefrontdoor was 6th and Rogue Angel 7th.

[Craigy14]

Another that could be interesting as a second season novice is On The Ropes. Beaten by monkfish but was plugging on all the way to finish second that day.

One I am certainly keeping an eye on for Mullins.