2022 Novice Chase Division

[Viking Flagship]

trouble is a lot of the Irish are already short for a year out and if monmiral beats adagio then I think is an interesting one for next year....quilixious was impressive but is wasnt like adagio was out of sight.

I wouldn't usually have the juveniles on my mind too much when considering the following year's novice chasers. It's a big ask for them to go to the top of the tree over fences as 5 year olds. I suppose Fakir nearly did it in last year's Arkle - any other recent examples?

[Istabraq]

Dusart would be close to top of my list if they go over fences

Possibly, but Nicholls and many in the UK made Bravemansgame a cross between Arkle and Big Bucks and he got smashed.

Everyone will have their own view but there has been a very strong trend in recent years towards Irish horses, this isn’t going to be reversed any time soon, there will need to be a fundamental change to the entire way UK racing (NH) is structured for that to happen, so my starting point for 21/22 has to be Irish....

[Stormez]

Dusart & My Drogo are they only two British horses I’ve backed for novice chases next season, and I’d be surprised if I added to that. Would take a pretty dramatic performance.

[Quevega]

I wouldn't usually have the juveniles on my mind too much when considering the following year's novice chasers. It's a big ask for them to go to the top of the tree over fences as 5 year olds. I suppose Fakir nearly did it in last year's Arkle - any other recent examples?

Saint Calvados ruined his chance. Same sire.

Nicholls does well with these types though.
And the sire appears to get decent chasers who do particularly well in their early years.

I think if Monmiral can win this week, and win well, then he is a lively one for the arkle, especially on looks.
He'd be close to the best juvenile depending how well he runs Thursday.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Possibly, but Nicholls and many in the UK made Bravemansgame a cross between Arkle and Big Bucks and he got smashed.

Everyone will have their own view but there has been a very strong trend in recent years towards Irish horses, this isn’t going to be reversed any time soon, there will need to be a fundamental change to the entire way UK racing (NH) is structured for that to happen, so my starting point for 21/22 has to be Irish....

Yeh, I agree with most of the above but the only UK trainer I'll strongly be looking at is NJH.

For all he winds me up by not running his horses, he did land two of the four novice chases this year so he can't be discounted, imo.

[fatherjohn]

I wouldn't usually have the juveniles on my mind too much when considering the following year's novice chasers. It's a big ask for them to go to the top of the tree over fences as 5 year olds. I suppose Fakir nearly did it in last year's Arkle - any other recent examples?

allmankind gave it a decent go this year and 2nd fav for arkle so might be a bit of recently bias but a lot will depend on Saturday.

[Istabraq]

he did land two of the four novice chases this year so he can't be discounted, imo.

He has a once in a lifetime horse in Shishkin and had Envoi Allen stood up he would no doubt not have won the Marsh, I agree Hendo is the most likely of the UK trainers but that is reflective of his owners investment in the game (Donnellys and JP were his 2 winning owners this year)....

[Viking Flagship]

Saint Calvados ruined his chance. Same sire.

Nicholls does well with these types though.
And the sire appears to get decent chasers who do particularly well in their early years.

I think if Monmiral can win this week, and win well, then he is a lively one for the arkle, especially on looks.
He'd be close to the best juvenile depending how well he runs Thursday.

Yep fair points. I'm always open to finding exceptions to the rule, although I do find it quite logical that juveniles would struggle to be champion novice chasers when going straight over fences the following season - which makes it harder to convince myself that there'll be an exception in any given year. Doing well with this type and winning an Arkle/Marsh are very different things... he'll be campaigned brilliantly and probably bag the Rising Stars at Wincanton doing cartwheels. He'll then get beat in the Henry VIII before having his sights lowered and mopping up 2 or 3 more nice paydays. PFN will then say he'll be minded as he'll make a smashing 6 year old so it'll be back to Aintree for the Manifesto

[Viking Flagship]

allmankind gave it a decent go this year and 2nd fav for arkle so might be a bit of recently bias but a lot will depend on Saturday.

Quite right, I forgot about him. Thing is though, even the examples that we're able to recall were horses that still came up short. I've just had a look back and Voy Por Ustedes was the last 5yo Arkle winner 15 years ago - and ironically enough I remember backing him!! A purple patch for 5yos between 98-06 with 4 winners, none since. Maybe we're due one..!

[Istabraq]

I've just had a look back and Voy Por Ustedes was the last 5yo Arkle winner 15 years ago - and ironically enough I remember backing him!! A purple patch for 5yos between 98-06 with 4 winners, none since. Maybe we're due one..!

I could be wrong but 5yo used to get an 8lb allowance and I think VPU would have been one of the last winners winners before that was pulled (I think they went down to a 1lb allowance then did away with it completely)...

[Lobos]

Dusart would be close to top of my list if they go over fences

Would be near the top of mine as well for the Arkle specifically taking into account Henderson's incredible record in the race.

[Quevega]

Yep fair points. I'm always open to finding exceptions to the rule, although I do find it quite logical that juveniles would struggle to be champion novice chasers when going straight over fences the following season - which makes it harder to convince myself that there'll be an exception in any given year. Doing well with this type and winning an Arkle/Marsh are very different things... he'll be campaigned brilliantly and probably bag the Rising Stars at Wincanton doing cartwheels. He'll then get beat in the Henry VIII before having his sights lowered and mopping up 2 or 3 more nice paydays. PFN will then say he'll be minded as he'll make a smashing 6 year old so it'll be back to Aintree for the Manifesto

I kind of agree. And it's not hard to jump on the UK trainers are shite bandwagon. I'll be avoiding them more than normal.
But Nichols can still train champion 2 milers.
He won the Champion chase with a 5yr old in Master Minded.
I personally like to see the French bred's go over fences sooner rather than later.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Gallyhill for the Brown Advisory??? He looks like he needs 3m already i.e. not the quickest. A big money purchase, trained by Henderson with the horse being highly regarded by Henrietta Knight. Of course there are more likely Irish winners of the race at this stage but I wouldn’t rule him out just yet. Other than those already mentioned, I can’t think of any more which is a sorry state of affairs for the UK.

[BigChaang]

Well .... Someone's got to stick up for the Tizzard Team , I'm hoping Oscar Elite goes on to Better thing's next season , .
Second to Vanillier in the Bartlett and beat Kenyan Cowboy - 3rd on sun. and Brewers Project 1st on Sunday ... Here's Hoping....

[Birds Nest]

Possibly, but Nicholls and many in the UK made Bravemansgame a cross between Arkle and Big Bucks and he got smashed.

Everyone will have their own view but there has been a very strong trend in recent years towards Irish horses, this isn’t going to be reversed any time soon, there will need to be a fundamental change to the entire way UK racing (NH) is structured for that to happen, so my starting point for 21/22 has to be Irish....

Its numbers too, 50% more broodmares and stallions in ireland than the uk, nearly twice as many foals born in ireland than the uk too, and its going to stay that way too..