2022 Novice Chase Division

[charlie]

I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

I've taken it Ista! I'm making a book on the RSA this year and it would be unforgivable to leave BO unbacked at 23/1 (boosted with betfair).

[Istabraq]

I've taken it Ista! I'm making a book on the RSA this year and it would be unforgivable to leave BO unbacked at 23/1 (boosted with betfair).

Best of luck charlie, I’ve just checked and the 20/1 is only available at betfair sportsbook sadly, I can get pennies at 12/1 and a few quid at 10/1, so I’ll leave it...

[Big Chac]

I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

Interested in your post here ista, I don’t think the Marsh is a stepping stone for the Ryan air. Take envoi allen this season always been considered a gold cup horse of the future with the ryan air never mentioned and he went Marsh. There was also lostintranslation who went gold cup, defi went champion chase, looking further back yorkhill/sire des champ were both considered gold cup horses of the future.
I don’t think the intermediate novice chase means you’ll be prepared towards the ryan air when they step into open company. I think its more of a case of what suits the horse at that stage of their career.
Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season. Just my opinion of course and probably because I have backed him only for the Marsh. I may cover look at covering other options soon enough though.

[Saxon Warrior]

Appreciate It & Bob Olinger both looked awesome, but are priced up accordingly. With targets uncertain, you'd be a brave man to put them in the book.

Arkle - Appreciate It @ 7/2, Bob Olinger @ 10/1
Marsh - Bob Olinger @ 5/1, Appreciate It @ 6/1
RSA - Appreciate It @ 12/1, Bob Olinger @ 20/1

I like the idea of Bob Olinger Arkle and Appreciate It Marsh. Ferny Hollow waits in the wings for WPM and I'd say he probably has more natural speed that AI. HDB loves his 2 mile chasers and has always been keen to talk up BO's speed.

Gaillard Du Mesnil & Galopin Des Champs were to two that really excited me because they were backable at 40's and 33's post Cheltenham, which I took. I think both will have very bright futures

My Drogo & Bravemansgame are the only two British horses I've backed so far (both RSA).

Im on Bob for the Arkle, its Henry's favourite Novice race, and he often places in it, with the occasional win.
He runs almost nothing in the Marsh.
He seems quite traditional with a decent record in the 3M and 2M novice chase races.

[Istabraq]

Interested in your post here ista, I don’t think the Marsh is a stepping stone for the Ryan air. Take envoi allen this season always been considered a gold cup horse of the future with the ryan air never mentioned and he went Marsh. There was also lostintranslation who went gold cup, defi went champion chase, looking further back yorkhill/sire des champ were both considered gold cup horses of the future.
I don’t think the intermediate novice chase means you’ll be prepared towards the ryan air when they step into open company. I think its more of a case of what suits the horse at that stage of their career.
Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season. Just my opinion of course and probably because I have backed him only for the Marsh. I may cover look at covering other options soon enough though.

I don't disagree with your comments but I can't think of a winner of the race (Marsh/JLT) who has gone onto better things, so what is the race a stepping stone to ?
I think when the powers that be created the intermediate division they expected the Marsh to create future Ryanair horses but of course if you have a top quality 20f horse you would naturally want to see if they had the speed to win over 2m or the stamina to stay over 26.5f.
Running over 20f is fine but it's a reasonable adjustment for that horse to then race over 4f less or 6.5f futher, we've had the discussion in here plenty of times but I'm not sure Mo Farah spent too much time improving his 800m times when practising for the Olympic 1500m.
One day a horse will win the Marsh and go onto win a Gold Cup but until that happens I will be sceptical on its' suitability as a blue ribband trial...

[Istabraq]

Specifically with bob olinger, the pace he showed and Henry saying he was considering the supreme I would be surprised if they stepped him up to 3M next season.[/COLOR][/FONT][/COLOR][/FONT]

Just to respond on this specific point, I'm of the view that this years Ballymore will be seen as a quality renewal, I'm not sure there's been a race where connections exuded so much confidence as those of Galliard du Mesnil and Bravemansgame, Harry Cobden specifically made BMG an absolute brute and wouldn't hear of defeat and he spoke of his total shock when coming down the hill approaching the turn Bob came to him tanking, 300 yards later Bob had pout 12l between the pair and he wasn't stopping at the line.
For me the Bob performance was a serious 'wow', if it hadn't been for Allaho's demolition of his Ryanair field I think Bob's performance would have discussed more, not least because of the quality in behind.
I could easily be wrong but I don't see HDB/Robcur thinking about dropping the horse back in trip having hit the line so hard in his Ballymore, what targets they have for him for the remainder of this season I have no idea but I'd be surprised, assuming a switch to fences, if he wasn't seen over 3m before March...

[Silverbirch]

Appreciate it from the start has been spoke about going further, I'll be very surprised if he's not in the Marsh/3M.

Ferny would be my pick of a Willie arkle horse.

[Kautostar]

Im on Bob for the Arkle, its Henry's favourite Novice race, and he often places in it, with the occasional win.
He runs almost nothing in the Marsh.
He seems quite traditional with a decent record in the 3M and 2M novice chase races.

I looked into this recently and it’s just a myth. He runs his horses where they have the best chance of winning. There was nothing that he should have run in the marsh apart from sizing John the year that douvan won the Arkle maybe.
Ultimately bob olinger will run in what race suits bob olinger the best nearer the time.

[Big Chac]

I don't disagree with your comments but I can't think of a winner of the race (Marsh/JLT) who has gone onto better things, so what is the race a stepping stone to ?
I think when the powers that be created the intermediate division they expected the Marsh to create future Ryanair horses but of course if you have a top quality 20f horse you would naturally want to see if they had the speed to win over 2m or the stamina to stay over 26.5f.
Running over 20f is fine but it's a reasonable adjustment for that horse to then race over 4f less or 6.5f futher, we've had the discussion in here plenty of times but I'm not sure Mo Farah spent too much time improving his 800m times when practising for the Olympic 1500m.
One day a horse will win the Marsh and go onto win a Gold Cup but until that happens I will be sceptical on its' suitability as a blue ribband trial...

Fair point, I can’t think of a marsh winner that has gone onto better things but I think the reputation of the few that I mentioned were held in very high regard and it just didn’t work out for them, rather them not being that good. I’m with you about running a little less/further is a reasonable adjustment and class usually prevails and I suppose this has something to do with why the horses that run in the marsh don’t have a specific stepping stone as from there you can go up and down in trip and run in the champion chase/gold cup. I don’t see why you would avoid the intermediate trip if your horse is bless with speed & stamina at that point in their career, there’s plenty of options once you step into open company to test against the best 2 milers, like defi and 3+ miles and then drop back down to the Ryan air if you don’t cut the mustard.
Interesting points Ista, nice to hear other points of views this early on.

[Big Chac]

I looked into this recently and it’s just a myth. He runs his horses where they have the best chance of winning. There was nothing that he should have run in the marsh apart from sizing John the year that douvan won the Arkle maybe.
Ultimately bob olinger will run in what race suits bob olinger the best nearer the time.

Agree with this, think his best horses have either been 2 or 3 miles with nothing of bob's quality running at the intermediate trip. He also has ballyadam and possibly aspire tower if he fancies an Arkle runner.

[OverTheLast]

Left field shout but I'm mad keen on Cobblers Way for chasing. He was a very decent novice hurdler imo and obviously Henrys usually always progress for a fence .. that's if he's still in training?! Haven't heard much on him since he was pulled up in the '20 Albert Bartlett.

[Istabraq]

Fair point, I can’t think of a marsh winner that has gone onto better things but I think the reputation of the few that I mentioned were held in very high regard and it just didn’t work out for them, rather them not being that good. I’m with you about running a little less/further is a reasonable adjustment and class usually prevails and I suppose this has something to do with why the horses that run in the marsh don’t have a specific stepping stone as from there you can go up and down in trip and run in the champion chase/gold cup. I don’t see why you would avoid the intermediate trip if your horse is bless with speed & stamina at that point in their career, there’s plenty of options once you step into open company to test against the best 2 milers, like defi and 3+ miles and then drop back down to the Ryan air if you don’t cut the mustard.
Interesting points Ista, nice to hear other points of views this early on.

Yeah, I just think if your long term plan is Gold Cup then you'd want to test your horses stamina and head for the 3m/NH Chase, and if your target is Champion Chase then why would you want to stretch the horses stamina, of course there will be horses who surprise and/or trainers who simply have no idea.
It's a game every Spring, where does horse x and horse y target next year, I think the reality about this Spring is that Ireland have an embarrassment of riches and thankfully across several owners so there should, in fact will, be some mouthwatering clashes to look forward to even if picking those specific races is the tricky bit...

[Istabraq]

Does anyone see Vanillier heading down the NH Chase route ?
What sort of pilot could Gavin Cromwell secure ?

[Birds Nest]

Does anyone see Vanillier heading down the NH Chase route ?
What sort of pilot could Gavin Cromwell secure ?

He might stick with joey Dunne, one of the rising stars in the ranks, he also rides a bit for Meade too,.

[Lobos]

Dusart has been back in full training following his injury and may run at Aintree.