2022 Novice Chase Division

[Ice]

How about once a mare has won a grade 1 they lose the allowance and do the same in other grade races ?

[Lobos]

What have I started!! I don't want the 7lb allowance to go. Easy pickings for us punters !

[Ice]

What have I started!! I don't want the 7lb allowance to go. Easy pickings for us punters !

You've opened up pandora's box !

[Lobos]

You've opened up pandora's box !

Shut it quickly please or else my Honeysuckle may have to work harder for a repeat !

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Shut it quickly please or else my Honeysuckle may have to work harder for a repeat !

I think she may have to work hard to beat Ferny Hollow if he is fit and well and connections target this race. I was looking at the times for the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle and Appreciate it (who was not extended) clocked the same time as Sharjah (carried 3lb more than Appreciate it). Given Ferny Hollow is a couple of lengths superior to Appreciate It, is it that far fetched to see an improvement in Ferny Hollow and see him running the mare close? I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts.

[Ice]

I think she may have to work hard to beat Ferny Hollow if he is fit and well and connections target this race. I was looking at the times for the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle and Appreciate it (who was not extended) clocked the same time as Sharjah (carried 3lb more than Appreciate it). Given Ferny Hollow is a couple of lengths superior to Appreciate It, is it that far fetched to see an improvement in Ferny Hollow and see him running the mare close? I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts.

I do like Ferny hollow and was on him for the supreme but we don't know if the form of his beating of appreciate it would be replicated over hurdles. Also a chance he could go over fences.

[Big Chac]

I think she may have to work hard to beat Ferny Hollow if he is fit and well and connections target this race. I was looking at the times for the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle and Appreciate it (who was not extended) clocked the same time as Sharjah (carried 3lb more than Appreciate it). Given Ferny Hollow is a couple of lengths superior to Appreciate It, is it that far fetched to see an improvement in Ferny Hollow and see him running the mare close? I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts.

Im not sure if Ferny would have confirmed his beating of appreciate over hurdles. Also he did beat Bob Olinger but Bob kept improving significantly as the season went on, with this injury that Ferny's had you can't be too confident he will do the same. All in all I think he's a woeful price at 12/1 for the champion hurdle and can't really see the appeal when you have the current champ at 3/1 who seems to be getting better and better.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Hi Ice. He did beat the mighty Bobby O on his one and only run over hurdles before suffering the stress fracture so I would be hopeful he would be as good or maybe better over timber. I agree that he could go over fences (I have backed him at big odds for the Arkle just in case) but recent noises from Ruby suggests they 'may' consider keeping him over hurdles for another year.

[Lobos]

I think she may have to work hard to beat Ferny Hollow if he is fit and well and connections target this race. I was looking at the times for the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle and Appreciate it (who was not extended) clocked the same time as Sharjah (carried 3lb more than Appreciate it). Given Ferny Hollow is a couple of lengths superior to Appreciate It, is it that far fetched to see an improvement in Ferny Hollow and see him running the mare close? I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts.

No comment

[BigBucksFlatSpot]

There have only been 4 mares win championship races this century

Annie
Epatante
Honeysuckle
ptko

That's 4 out of 80 races... yes they are recent but that's not many. Without the allowance I think that would have been probably 2 winners at a push 3...2 out of 80 doesnt seem that much of an imbalance.....and surely we do want mares to win probably much more than that

They are exceptional horses ...without it you would have had honeysuckle win another mares and sharjah win a 2nd champion hurdle....do we think sharjah is a 2 time great?

and is honeysuckle dominance really more upsetting than big bucks

I'm not sure it's broke but we should give it another decade or so to see the effect and in the meantime get rich backing the mares

[Middle_Of_March]

My diary doesn’t get much traffic (understandably), but I mentioned James Du Berlais earlier in the week.




IMO he will go Marsh and have backed accordingly (albeit, with Free Bets)

I like JDB with the Marsh in mind too. Just not sure he’s one that will shorten at any time soon so am happy to hold fire with him and wait until the seasons stable yours begin later this year.

[Hurricane fly]

Gentlemansgame out today, I know he has a lot of fans after his 2nd at DRF

[Quevega]

RUN WILD FRED is still a novice.
I've backed him for the National tomorrow along with a few others.
But if he don't win that, then he must be the number one for the NH chase with bells on.
I had a look today to see who has him priced up as I would back him as soon as the race finishes tomorrow.

But not priced up anywhere yet.
If he don't win then I can see a very similar run pattern emerging for him, like with Galvin.
Couple of summer races, maybe the Plate at Galway, then the novice chase at cheltenham in Nov.

[Quevega]

Top Moon would also be of interest, especially if he runs well in defeat today.

[Ice]

Hi Ice. He did beat the mighty Bobby O on his one and only run over hurdles before suffering the stress fracture so I would be hopeful he would be as good or maybe better over timber. I agree that he could go over fences (I have backed him at big odds for the Arkle just in case) but recent noises from Ruby suggests they 'may' consider keeping him over hurdles for another year.

It's gutting Ferny got injured when you see how well Bob and ai did at the festival, would have been great to see how he fared against one of them, most likely ai in the supreme. I had him in an antepost lucky 15 where the other 3 won so it's a case of what could have been for me !