2022 Championship Division

[Istabraq]

Apologies if anyone's offended by referring to the Ryanair in the Championship thread

You’re probably a couple of years ahead of the game there as the Ryanair will undoubtedly become the Saturday feature and a ‘championship’ race when the festival goes five days.
Individual race threads will be up soon

I think you’re right re Shishkin, and possibly Energumene too, their presence in a Champion Chase could easily scare many off but is the Ryanair any easier if Allaho gets their healthy ?
His performance in the race last season was every bit as impressive as a MasterMinded or Vautour or Master Oats, Greanateen could well run the race of his life and finish 10l third.
That said has he stopped improving ?

[Odin]

I like your thinking.... but not sure whether 20/1 is worth taking now or later on

Based on the bettering, Greaneteen will go Tingle Creek again

- If he beats Shishkin, then he'll be routed to the QM
- If he loses to Shishkin, a close race, then Nicholls may still go for the QM
- If he loses to Shishkin, battered into 2nd or 3rd, then he could go Ryanair. Question is, if this happens would they bookies cut him for the Ryanair

I do like horses that have ran in the QM the year before, before stepping up to tackle the Ryanair - this fella would fit the bill. However, with our GB lot being rubbish, Greaneteen is likely to pick up one or two sneaky wins over 2 miles.

You're also at the mercy of Shishkin, if he fails or is out for the season then you'd expect Greaneteen to go QM

Will be adding Greaneteen to the tracker and keeping a eye out, he could well get smashed up by Shishkin and make PN thing again. 20/1 with cashout... maybe one to sleep on

I love Greaneteen, backed him early on for Champion Chase at 50/1 each way then cashed out because Nicholls said he was going to the Ryanair. He travelled really nicely into the actual race and I remember cursing the fact I could have been on that ticket, but luckily for me it wasn't to be for him. I think he would go nicely in the Ryanair, but Nicholls has said plan is Tingle Creek - Champion Chase in One Jump Ahead. Not sure how much you can hold him to that, but it's enough for me to steer clear of Greaneteen atm with the exception of one fun bet with my dad.

[Block 205]

I like your thinking.... but not sure whether 20/1 is worth taking now or later on

Based on the bettering, Greaneteen will go Tingle Creek again

- If he beats Shishkin, then he'll be routed to the QM
- If he loses to Shishkin, a close race, then Nicholls may still go for the QM
- If he loses to Shishkin, battered into 2nd or 3rd, then he could go Ryanair. Question is, if this happens would they bookies cut him for the Ryanair

I do like horses that have ran in the QM the year before, before stepping up to tackle the Ryanair - this fella would fit the bill. However, with our GB lot being rubbish, Greaneteen is likely to pick up one or two sneaky wins over 2 miles.

You're also at the mercy of Shishkin, if he fails or is out for the season then you'd expect Greaneteen to go QM

Will be adding Greaneteen to the tracker and keeping a eye out, he could well get smashed up by Shishkin and make PN thing again. 20/1 with cashout... maybe one to sleep on

opatcho, I completely agree that Shishkin's form and wellbeing will potentially be the key to where any number of other horses are routed this season, but I could easily see a scenario in which Greaneteen gets cosily beaten by Shishkin in the Tingle Creek but still with a high class performance, and Nicholls deciding at that point that he won't be beating Shishkin over 2m, and looking to step Greaneteen up in trip from that point onwards. With regard to what price he might be in that scenario, if he'd run to a decent level then I certainly wouldn't see him getting any bigger when you look at the others above him in the betting:
Allaho - obviously the one to beat at this stage
Shishkin - Champion Chase
Energumene - could come here or CC, but would be a big player if he was involved
Fakir D'oudairies - was beaten 12L this year, so would he be good enough to overturn that?
Envoi Allen - would have to have a huge chance, but surely more likely at this stage to be aimed at the Gold Cup
Janidil - has a lot to make up on ratings, and I can't see him being good enough
Chantry House - still progressing and could well be a contender, but also likely to head for the Gold Cup?

I'd only expect two or three of those above Greaneteen in the betting to a) be heading for the Ryanair, and b) be competitive, so if there was any indication that the Ryanair was to be the target, I'd be surprised if Greaneteen's price was any bigger than 10/1, but there's obviously a good deal of guesswork involved there, as there has to be with a lot of antepost bets!

[Block 205]

I personally can't see him going Ryanair. Nicholls has got proper history in the Champion Chase (once dominated the race) albeit going back a few years and hell not give up the chance to win it again.

Lobos, this is probably the one of the many variables that I'd be least worried about - as mentioned in my post above, if he thinks that they're not going to beat Shishkin in the Champion Chase then he could quite conceivably decide at that point to target the Ryanair, as he hasn't had a huge amount of ammo to throw at the premier races at the Festival in recent years, and would surely head where he thought that they'd have a realistic chance of winning one.

That quote from Bryony has stuck with me too, so hopefully she'll be constantly bending his ear about stepping up in trip this year.

[Eggs]

Apologies if anyone's offended by referring to the Ryanair in the Championship thread, but I can't find anywhere else appropriate to put this! Allaho would obviously take all the beating for this race if reproducing anything like the kind of form he showed this year (assuming that he goes for this race again), but at 9/2 or shorter I'm looking elsewhere at this stage, and am interested in peoples' views about Greaneteen, who I see this way:

Pros:
1. Current rating of 168, which would have been good enough to win 6 of the last 10 renewals.
2. No ground dependencies - his 7 wins have come on Good (x2), Good to Soft (x3), Soft and Heavy (1 each), so perfect for typical Festival ground.
3. Solid Festival form, only beaten 2L in last year's Champion Chase, and placed (beaten 5.5L) in the previous season's Grand Annual.
4. After winning the Grade 1 Celebration Chase on him in April, Bryony said "He’s going to be a proper horse over two and a half miles.".
5. As is often the case in the Ryanair, it's quite possible that the vast majority of the horses that are currently shorter in the betting could have a different Festival target.
6. If Shiskin turns out to be the real deal, he could scare a lot of potential challenegers away from the Champion Chase.

Cons:
1. It could be argued that his current rating is inflated due to the defeat of Altior at Sandown, and Altior was almost certainly regressing at a rate of knots by that point.
2. After Sandown, Nicholls said "I'm not in a mad hurry to go over two and a half miles with him and his target will be back here for the Tingle Creek.".

I appreciate that there's the considerable risk that Greaneteen will have another go at the Champion Chase, but given the Pros listed above, I think that it's far from impossible that he could not only end up in the Ryanair, but could have a very realistic chance of winning it, and as a result I've had 2pts at 20/1.

Any thoughts?

…mentioned Greaneteen myself for the Ryanair a few times on here, mainly based on jockey comments that it will be some horse over 2m 4f this coming season, but the consensus from posters much more knowledgeable than me is that the trainer will be keeping it to 2m and the CC is a much more likely target.