2022 Championship Division

[Atlantic Viking]

Also worth remembering just how much Flooring Porter played up before the race at Punchestown, was well lit up going to post, basically caused a false start and then had to be led-in. It couldn't have gone much worse. Whether or not he'd have beaten the Klassical Dream that turned up that day is another matter!

[Lbur4288]

One I have been trying to work out a potential race at the festival for is another Mullins one, Jon Snow. I mistakenly thought he was still a novice but that is not the case. Although it doesn't seem to tally up with Saxon Warriors excellent thread, he could be a Stayers Hurdle sort with the way he's stepped up in trip over the Summer and improved for the longer trip, unlikely I know. Away from that, this could be a potential handicap plot? Interested for people's thoughts, I don't want to try and force it into my bet book but I am convinced that Mullins will already have a race in mind for Cheltenham for him.

[Quevega]

I think it’s just the way Flooring Porter & Vaniller won makes you scratch your head, they were relentless up front against some very good horses and absolutely smashed them. If they were winning by a head or a real gutsy battle then you could say they were rocky styled genuine performances and he’s a truly talented trainer but I have my doubts. If i’m honest I feel the same way about Johnny Murtagh, how can he keep winning those big races and look that awkward collecting a trophy. Maybe i’m one eyed, a unfair cynic and a sore loser but the performances are against the grain for sure

Agreed.
The improvement Flooring Porter has made is suspicious, no doubt (regardless of trip).
Mo Farah didn't improve when he ran marathons (mainly cos he no longer worked and trained with a drug cheating coach)
He was also shit for several years before he started working with a drug cheat.
As previously mentioned the team Sky cyclists all being on asthma drugs is a fucking joke. If they've got asthma then I'm clinically dead, as I lose my breath getting off the settee.

I'm pretty certain Mr Bolger was aiming at the O'Briens & Murtagh. Joseph in particular, is not his best mate.

I'm pretty much on your wavelength with all of this, as you could say the same about all the other vast improvers we see each season. So we are throwing shit at the shit wall really.
And I don't really care as I'm a bettor, and can bet them if I like, and profit off them if fortunate enough.

It's just under the surface all the time though. Although I must admit it doesn't bother me in racing as much as it does with athletics or cycling, where I watch each winning performance and immediately think they're probably cheating, and not what a great achievement it is (which is a bit sad).

If it ever came to light that a big yard was doing a "Lance" - such as Mullins or O'Brien, then this would be very sad indeed, and so damaging to Irish racing and Ireland that you'd probably say the authorities would do almost anything for it not to ever happen (it come to light).

Fucking Baffert gets caught every season and he's still trucking on. In fact the Hall of Fame is full of cheats.
The more I think about it the more obvious it is that Racing is like cycling an athletics, in that you probably have to cheat to compete. At the highest level that is.
The money and prestige is so great that the authorities with vested interests (99% of them) are happy to be one step behind.

Bit like all the American Generals that want to occupy foreign lands all the time, for years on end. And advise against withdrawal. Whilst also being shareholders and Directors in weapons and armour manufacturing companies.

Greed. Has a lot to answer for.

[FinalFurlong91]

Notable that aidan is having a very average year in Britain and Ireland the year of the accusations

[charlie]

Agreed.
The improvement Flooring Porter has made is suspicious, no doubt (regardless of trip).

Significant improvement is not possible without foul play? Is that what you really think?

Perhaps I'm naive and you're right, but I can't imagine watching and enjoying racing with that type of mindset.

If Flooring Porter was an 8yo with 30 runs to his name, then perhaps a performance like that would be suspicious, but he was 6 years old. We know how horses develop and improve from 4 to 5, and 5 to 6, and FP is a young horse.

He's also relatively unexposed over 3m. Saying 'regardless of trip', as if that wouldn't or couldn't lead to significant improvement, does nothing to add credibility to suspicions.

Ultimately, Flooring Porter has done exactly what he did at Navan and Leopardstown, at Cheltenham, and beaten a lot of the same horses by similar margins in the process. He's pinged his hurdles and loved life out on the front end.

It was a carbon copy of his runs in Ireland and it was a textbook performance from and young and improving horse, that enjoys going left handed and over 3m.

[Quevega]

Significant improvement is not possible without foul play? Is that what you really think?

Perhaps I'm naive and you're right, but I can't imagine watching and enjoying racing with that type of mindset.

If Flooring Porter was an 8yo with 30 runs to his name, then perhaps a performance like that would be suspicious, but he was 6 years old. We know how horses develop and improve from 4 to 5, and 5 to 6, and FP is a young horse.

He's also relatively unexposed over 3m. Saying 'regardless of trip', as if that wouldn't or couldn't lead to significant improvement, does nothing to add credibility to suspicions.

Ultimately, Flooring Porter has done exactly what he did at Navan and Leopardstown, at Cheltenham, and beaten a lot of the same horses by similar margins in the process. He's pinged his hurdles and loved life out on the front end.

It was a carbon copy of his runs in Ireland and it was a textbook performance from and young and improving horse, that enjoys going left handed and over 3m.

The without foul play thing, - depends on the context (which sport, history, etc etc) I think some sports where significant improvement is shown automatically arouse suspicion in logically minded types.

The mindset thing - I'd imagine being naive or deluded would help in this instance, something I have been and still am guilty of, on occasions. However, my sceptical nature has gradually overcome most of these. It's a bit like thinking the lap dancer really fancies you !

I do manage to enjoy it (the racing) though, for what it is. I don't dwell on my negative, unproven thoughts for too long. Because they are guesses.

There aren't many Championship winning horses who took 5 races to break their maiden and started in handicaps off marks of 100 ish.

The regardless of trip was aimed at the people who continue to completely believe trainers excuses/reasons/guesses. It's rarely cold hard facts, or one reason alone.

Obviously, horses will improve, and in some cases it will be due to them having more stamina than speed. And this horse could be one of them.
I just personally doubt that it's all been done innocently. It's therefore suspicious to me, given everything I know about horses, and this trainers track record in particular.

[charlie]

The without foul play thing, - depends on the context (which sport, history, etc etc) I think some sports where significant improvement is shown automatically arouse suspicion in logically minded types.

The mindset thing - I'd imagine being naive or deluded would help in this instance, something I have been and still am guilty of, on occasions. However, my sceptical nature has gradually overcome most of these. It's a bit like thinking the lap dancer really fancies you !

I do manage to enjoy it (the racing) though, for what it is. I don't dwell on my negative, unproven thoughts for too long. Because they are guesses.

There aren't many Championship winning horses who took 5 races to break their maiden and started in handicaps off marks of 100 ish.

The regardless of trip was aimed at the people who continue to completely believe trainers excuses/reasons/guesses. It's rarely cold hard facts, or one reason alone.

Obviously, horses will improve, and in some cases it will be due to them having more stamina than speed. And this horse could be one of them.
I just personally doubt that it's all been done innocently. It's therefore suspicious to me, given everything I know about horses, and this trainers track record in particular.

I know you're a big sports sceptic Q - I'm getting flashbacks to our conversation last year (I think) about Usain Bolt and athletics. I gave up in the end and I'll never mention athletics on here again

Context is key. Generally speaking, most involved in racing accept foul play exists, but it's exceptionally difficult to get away with it nowadays on the main stage and when people call something suspicious, or suspect foul play, the onus (IMO) should be on them to explain why, and give actual reasons that extend beyond vague suspicions about a particular trainer. Surely a logically minded case would weigh up significant improvement in the context of previous runs, sectionals, age, trip, race tactics and breeding?

I don't think there's been any wrong doing, and I don't think anyone should be shocked by the performance. Yeats has produced multiple festival winners, and lots of stayers, Flooring Porter now being one. He smashed 3/1F The Bosses Oscar 12L from the front at Navan. He went to Leopardstown and beat The Storyteller and Sire Du Berlais convincingly by 6 lengths from the front. He then goes to Cheltenham and beat's the same horses (Sire Du Berlais 4L and The Storyteller 9L), in similar front running fashion. Load of 5 to year olds improve 20-30lbs. Where's the shock? In hindsight, it was all quite obvious actually.

[Spectre]

Very often improvements come because trainers like Cromwell start off trying to handicap a horse and then realise they've got something far better.

Champion Hurdler Brave Inca was exactly that. Three maiden hurdles beaten between 30 and 50 lengths, and then held back in a handicap and beaten 34 lengths to make sure the handicapper thought he'd done the the right thing. Then 'hand-break off' time, and somewhere between a couple of bumpers, a couple of easy handicap wins, and three novice hurdles they realise they've got an aeroplane, and they end up with a Supreme Novices winner that would go on to be a Champion Hurdler. A story I know is true because I know the family that owned him.

For most Irish stables it doesn't pay to run with 10-20 lengths of a Mullins, Elliott, or De Bromhead horse when you're starting out, because the handicapper will have you straight away. It's generally better to stay under the radar and then find your handicap wins later.

Sometimes it's plain old cheating the handicapper that exaggerates the improvement. Sometimes it's training regime, and finding out how to get the best out of a horse. It can be feed, or it can be veterinary treatment on something that's hurting. Often it's getting on top of something like ulcers. And yes, I have no doubt, there is also artificial drug related improvement. I suspect it's far less common than most people think it is though.

[Quevega]

Very often improvements come because trainers like Cromwell start off trying to handicap a horse and then realise they've got something far better.

Champion Hurdler Brave Inca was exactly that. Three maiden hurdles beaten between 30 and 50 lengths, and then held back in a handicap and beaten 34 lengths to make sure the handicapper thought he'd done the the right thing. Then 'hand-break off' time, and somewhere between a couple of bumpers, a couple of easy handicap wins, and three novice hurdles they realise they've got an aeroplane, and they end up with a Supreme Novices winner that would go on to be a Champion Hurdler. A story I know is true because I know the family that owned him.

For most Irish stables it doesn't pay to run with 10-20 lengths of a Mullins, Elliott, or De Bromhead horse when you're starting out, because the handicapper will have you straight away. It's generally better to stay under the radar and then find your handicap wins later.

Sometimes it's plain old cheating the handicapper that exaggerates the improvement. Sometimes it's training regime, and finding out how to get the best out of a horse. It can be feed, or it can be veterinary treatment on something that's hurting. Often it's getting on top of something like ulcers. And yes, I have no doubt, there is also artificial drug related improvement. I suspect it's far less common than most people think it is though.

I understand all of that, of course.
And it's another form of cheating (according to the rules of racing).
I obviously veer to the other side of the argument in regards the (less common vs they're all at it) swingometer.

Anyway, we should move on, as it's not fair to cast aspersions, like I've been doing (even if history suggests I may be right). I can't prove it, and the onus is on me and other like minded people (as Charlie correctly stated)

[The King Pimm]

Significant improvement is not possible without foul play? Is that what you really think?

Perhaps I'm naive and you're right, but I can't imagine watching and enjoying racing with that type of mindset.

If Flooring Porter was an 8yo with 30 runs to his name, then perhaps a performance like that would be suspicious, but he was 6 years old. We know how horses develop and improve from 4 to 5, and 5 to 6, and FP is a young horse.

He's also relatively unexposed over 3m. Saying 'regardless of trip', as if that wouldn't or couldn't lead to significant improvement, does nothing to add credibility to suspicions.

Ultimately, Flooring Porter has done exactly what he did at Navan and Leopardstown, at Cheltenham, and beaten a lot of the same horses by similar margins in the process. He's pinged his hurdles and loved life out on the front end.

It was a carbon copy of his runs in Ireland and it was a textbook performance from and young and improving horse, that enjoys going left handed and over 3m.

You’re right Charlie I can’t prove anything and without any evidence shouldn’t cast aspersions as shit sticks and will stink but I do have my doubts and the next time Cromwell or Murtagh win a big race you can guarantee I’ll be shaking my head and wagging my finger in disgust before checking my phone or scuttling away to the bookies to collect my winnings as I’m a shitzer. That said if you can’t beat them then back them and I won’t be repeating the mistake of not backing Cromwells runners next March. He has a very impressive strike rate at the Cheltenham Festival over the past 3 years and if Flooring Porter and Vaniller are still alive and racing in a few months I’ll be backing them.

[charlie]

You’re right Charlie I can’t prove anything and without any evidence shouldn’t cast aspersions as shit sticks and will stink but I do have my doubts and the next time Cromwell or Murtagh win a big race you can guarantee I’ll be shaking my head and wagging my finger in disgust before checking my phone or scuttling away to the bookies to collect my winnings as I’m a shitzer. That said if you can’t beat them then back them and I won’t be repeating the mistake of not backing Cromwells runners next March. He has a very impressive strike rate at the Cheltenham Festival over the past 3 years and if Flooring Porter and Vaniller are still alive and racing in a few months I’ll be backing them.

Hahaha brilliant post, that made me laugh a lot

[Lbur4288]

Anyone remember Holymacapony? Has a win over Gaillard du Mesnil to his name and was clearly held in high regard by Henry de Bromhead with the races he was put in. Was favourite for last seasons Albert Bartlett before pulling up in one race and running no sort of race in the next (and ultimately his most recent).

Interestingly, he's got an entry in the Deacy Gilligan Hurdle at Galway next Monday. This was won by The Storyteller last year who was fancied in the Stayers. Albeit different trainers, could it be that Holymacapony has put his problems behind him and Henry de Bromhead fancies a crack at the Stayers Hurdle with him? Not something I'm keen to dive into but I'll watch this race with some interest.

Looking at it, it seems to be something ran for the first time last year so we couldn't rule out whether it's a race that trainers may find useful on the path to the festival.

[Imperial Commander]

Good spot, it will be interesting to see how he gets on with another summer on his back. What you can certainly say is that his first run last season was far and away better than the runs that followed it so maybe FTO is the time to catch him. Remains to be seen how he runs on better ground though.

[Lbur4288]

Good spot, it will be interesting to see how he gets on with another summer on his back. What you can certainly say is that his first run last season was far and away better than the runs that followed it so maybe FTO is the time to catch him. Remains to be seen how he runs on better ground though.

Totally agree. I recall some sort of injury playing a role in both defeats and obviously that adds another question mark to his name but if we see glimpses of the first race on his return and beyond then he could be a good alternative to Flooring Porter at a nice price.

I did request odds, I expect I'll hear some back in the morning but Coral went first with 33/1. I imagine I'll get better from some of the less stingy bookies (I have always found Corals odds to be amongst the worst on offer).

[Lbur4288]

Generally getting 33/1 to 40/1. Then Hills go 100/1, that is half tempting to have a small stake.