2022 Championship Division

[Istabraq]

It's hard to assess the first couple of novice chase runs by any talented animal as they're invariably in small fields beating trees, I think that applies to both sides of the Irish Sea.
Worth remembering his Fairyhouse win was given an RPR of 165 and that Coko Beach was some 13l behind that day and he went on to win a G2 at Navan...

[fatherjohn]

One big thing in Shishkins favour is he's done it on the clock and earnt the big numbers to boot with how he's visually been winning races.

yep and we haven't seen anything to suggest we know where the limit of his ability is--- which we hopefully will this year. I'm gutted we didn't get to see the energumene/shishkin Arkle which would have given a much better marker of their relative ability this year.

For Envoi- you can make excuses for the Colreevy run and Marsh run but it wasn't the horse we saw before then who would win with ease and looked certain to take the step up to 3m with ease. yes he was disrupted but its a big question mark as to whether he will take a gold cup distance against proven quality stayers in monkfish and minella who are at the top of their game in my view.

[The Fellow]

Seven-time Grade 1 winner Min has undergone surgery and will not be seen before Christmas, meaning a fourth successive John Durkan Chase in December is out of the question.

Min has won half of his 24 starts and became the first horse to win three John Durkans in a row at Punchestown last December when he emerged from the fog under Patrick Mullins to beat stablemate Tornado Flyer.

He was sent off 4-1 to defend his 2020 Ryanair Chase crown at the Cheltenham Festival in March, and was the pick of Paul Townend from a quartet of Willie Mullins-trained runners, but he jumped poorly and could not live with stablemate Allaho before eventually being pulled up.

Mullins told the Racing Post: "Min picked up an injury in his hind leg. We have operated on him and we'll have to see how he recovers from that operation before making any decisions on his future. You could see him out in the second-half of the season."

When asked whether retirement might be on the agenda, Mullins replied: "I really don't know and I'll have to have a chat with [owner] Rich [Ricci] to see what he wants to do. He obviously doesn't owe us anything and he's been a fantastic horse over the years but we'll see how he is and take it from there."

Min has earned well over €1 million in prize-money. His best performance, according to Racing Post Ratings, was a 20-length defeat of Politologue in the 2019 Melling Chase at Aintree, where he posted an RPR of 178.

He chased home Altior in the 2016 Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, and was also runner-up to the Nicky Henderson-trained superstar in the 2018 Champion Chase. On both occasions he was beaten by seven lengths.

Min is a 16-1 shot with bet365 to regain the Ryanair Chase at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival.

[charlie]

It's going to be very exciting to see where Envoi Allen ends up. I take the view there's a complete tool over fences in there, we just haven't seen it yet. Didn't do anything wrong pre Cheltenham and then the mistake + injury and even the stable move all went against him.

Interesting that HDB has this years Gold Cup 1st & 2nd who will be 9 and 8 next year. All being well, fair to assume both will go down the Gold Cup again pretty much in their prime, so my feeling is Envoi Allen will have to stay really well and impress over 3m+ to be campaigned with the Gold Cup in mind as Henry and CPS have options there.

Those sceptical of Envoi's suitability to 3m+ are naturally looking to the Ryanair as the other option, and 16/1 could look pure mustard in 7 months, but CPS have Allaho for this. It feels odd saying this about a Willie Mullins horse in August, but I'd be virtually certain Allaho ends up in the Ryanair because WPM is a creature of habit, the 'catch me if you can' style is easy to replicate and we know Allaho doesn't want 3m and isn't quick enough for 2m. I don't think CPS care enough about jumps racing to force hands and they could very well line up two massive names in the Ryanair, but I suspect Henry would be reluctant to run into Allaho who looked awesome.

I wouldn't be shocked if Envoi Allen ended up in the QMCC, so I don't think the Ryanair is the only other option at all.

[Lobos]

Not a bad shout at all Charlie. Could be he reverts to hurdles and runs in the Champion Hurdle/Stayers. It's all up in the air !! This coming season is very intriguing on many fronts. All to play for #Scattergunapproach

[Outlaw]

Not a bad shout at all Charlie. Could be he reverts to hurdles and runs in the Champion Hurdle/Stayers. It's all up in the air !! This coming season is very intriguing on many fronts. All to play for #Scattergunapproach

In what scenario would he stay over hurdles to run over 3m Lobos if there was any doubt about stamina to not go for a GC bid.? Can't envisage that one for a second.

[charlie]

Not a bad shout at all Charlie. Could be he reverts to hurdles and runs in the Champion Hurdle/Stayers. It's all up in the air !! This coming season is very intriguing on many fronts. All to play for #Scattergunapproach

I highly doubt he'll revert back to hurdles, but never say never.

[Lobos]

In what scenario would he stay over hurdles to run over 3m Lobos if there was any doubt about stamina to not go for a GC bid.? Can't envisage that one for a second.

His jumping could fall to pieces? Could turn out to be well below top level over fences ? Jumping could place too much stress on his previous injury ? Unlikely but certainly not impossible.

[Outlaw]

His jumping could fall to pieces? Could turn out to be well below top level over fences ? Jumping could place too much stress on his previous injury ? Unlikely but certainly not impossible.

Under HDB... you have far more confidence in him than your imagination dares dream Lobos

[charlie]

His jumping could fall to pieces? Could turn out to be well below top level over fences ? Jumping could place too much stress on his previous injury ? Unlikely but certainly not impossible.

You're reaching there methinks Lobos. Of course anything can happen, and perhaps there are evidence based decisions to be made once the season starts, but if you open your ante post stance up this wide you'll be left with too many potential races which makes ante post punting way more difficult than it needs to be. A lot of talk on here re Gold Cup and Ryanair, then QMCC, now you're mentioning hurdling. We'll be talking about him in handicaps next. Hahaha. Joking aside tho, in terms of his profile, the option that doesn't seem to be mentioned thats almost certainly the most profitable long term strategy with horses who have been injured and priced up more on reputation than actual substance, and thats not actually backing him ante post at all!

[Lobos]

Have taken advice from Quevega and taken on board the breeding/family points raised by Kot and have come to the conclusion that Aspire Tower is more likely to stay Hurdling this coming season as opposed to chasing. HDB intimated the same at the end of last season. I can't see him chasing Honey's ass again so the only other option would be the Stayers or skipping Cheltenham all together. Henry is on record as saying AT sees out his races well which I agree with. He certainly stayed on again really well up the hill in this year's Champion Hurdle when looking likely to be swamped and a step up in trip could be the making of him. Others have successfully made the switch up in the past. I've taken the 40/1 with B365 ( only 20's with Skybet) and that could look a very shrewd bet if/when him staying over the smaller obstacles is confirmed.

[Spectre]

That’s an interesting thought Lobos. Thinking out the box can pay, and it’s definitely worth looking out for entries up in trip.

I’m not sure he will though. Breeding doesn’t suggest a step up is what he wants, and I’m sure Henry said at the end of last season he fancies another crack at the Champion Hurdle with him. If he gets an entry up in trip though I’ll definitely join you.

[BigChaang]

Have taken advice from Quevega and taken on board the breeding/family points raised by Kot and have come to the conclusion that Aspire Tower is more likely to stay Hurdling this coming season as opposed to chasing. HDB intimated the same at the end of last season. I can't see him chasing Honey's ass again so the only other option would be the Stayers or skipping Cheltenham all together. Henry is on record as saying AT sees out his races well which I agree with. He certainly stayed on again really well up the hill in this year's Champion Hurdle when looking likely to be swamped and a step up in trip could be the making of him. Others have successfully made the switch up in the past. I've taken the 40/1 with B365 ( only 20's with Skybet) and that could look a very shrewd bet if/when him staying over the smaller obstacles is confirmed.

I rewatched the Churdle at the weekend Lobos , and i thought Aspire tower ran a really good race , considering the juveniles often " struggle " the following season .
I'd already had a small bet , and topped it up today for the Ch. hdl , thinking they might give it another go ,.
I must admit i hadn't given the stayers any thought . Good call there , be interesting to see what entries A.T get's later this year .

[Lobos]

I just can't have him in the Champion Hurdle against Honey. If she were to miss the gig then yeah maybe but he'd be playing for places again and I get the feeling the likes of Echoes In Rain and potentially Shewearsitwell and Concertista may take advantage of the allowances which will make it very difficult for him. You also have Epatante and Sharjah again. I can see him doing a Nicolls Canyon who stepped up successfully and there are similarities between those two. I've watched back all of his races from last season and he stays on strongly every time. There are others I prefer in the Stayers but he would be ideal as cover.

[Lobos]

The last of the 9/4 gone on Honeysuckle in the last hour. Chopped into 15/8 from 9/4 with Betfred.