2022 Championship Division

[Istabraq]

The problem with going too heavy on a horse like A Plus Tard is I can't remember the last time a horse beaten in its first Gold Cup came back the next time and won, and very many have tried.

Someone with a better memory than me may be able to name the last time it happened?

A Plus Tard has to be an each way or place bet to my mind. There are plenty of placers than have come back and done the same thing.

Probably Native River, but your point is still valid.

That said I do like APT, he went into the Gold Cup with less staying experience than most and ran an absolute blinder so there’s hope he can improve the pound or two needed, but right now there’s Minella Indo, Monkfish and Envoi Allen in a superstar line up, but it’s August, and we know things change massively between now and March…

[That Horse]

Didn't native river do just that a couple of years ago?

[Alexmilton]

I think Envoi goes to the Ryanair and (although I think it was a plot for colreevys last race) Monkfish has a few question marks still. A plus tard made a couple errors and would have been alot closer if jumping better, which hopefully will improve over the year.
As you said, loads can happen but I still think it's a good price

[Istabraq]

I think Envoi goes to the Ryanair

Been a raging debate for months that, I'm not convinced Cheveley Park bought Envoi for a Ryanair and they of course have Allaho for that.
Not afraid to stick two in a race, I think they'll be more likely to do that in a Gold Cup than a Ryanair, right now I'd have Envoi a short price to line up in a Gold Cup assuming he comes back fit...

[Lobos]

Agree if Envoi comes back at his brilliant best and takes in and wins one of the GC 'trials' then there's only one place he'll end up.

[Craigy14]

We’ll find out at down royal end of October start of nov.

3m in a grade 1, he wins that he has to be nailed on to go for the gold cup imo. Unless he seriously flops next time after at Xmas.

Wouldn’t surprise me if they go slightly easy on him too, 2 runs before the gold cup, albeit will be top company.

[Outlaw]

Native River did indeed do it the other year but compare the season he had before (Henessey, Welsh national and the Denman) he was a very rare exception as to when a horse next year could actually improve as was only 6 and have a much much easier campaign. It's not a stat that should put you off a horse if they are young enough or campaigned differently around a target would be my opinion.

[Eggs]

Agree if Envoi comes back at his brilliant best and takes in and wins one of the GC 'trials' then there's only one place he'll end up.

….I’m sure lots on here are on the big ante-post doubles involving Shishkin (CC)/Envoi (GC) but have pretty much given up on it. Here’s hoping.

[Lobos]

….I’m sure lots on here are on the big ante-post doubles involving Shishkin (CC)/Envoi (GC) but have pretty much given up on it. Here’s hoping.

No reason to give up. I think he'll be right back in the mix come March. Every chance he could go off firm favourite.

[Spectre]

I’ve no reason to believe Envoi Allen won’t be back to his best when he returns. I do have doubts that he’ll be a resolute enough stayer to win a Gold Cup though.

Don’t forget his original connections sought out a two and half mile point for him. Given the rarity of two and half mile points he was never thought of as a typical staying chaser.

I do completely agree though that the aim will be the Gold Cup, and the only way he ends up in the Ryanair will be because of a couple of reversals in staying chases, which given some of the opposition he’ll face along the way has to be a possibility.

Having said all that, his price for the Gold Cup is based on a fall at Cheltenham and an injury at Punchestown, and feels much too big to me based on everything we’ve seen previously, and with connections highly likely to head that way.

[Atlantic Viking]

If you take out the Envoi Allen hype (which I myself have been incredibly guilty of being part of!) what has he actually shown over fences? In small fields, beaten nothing in particular (albeit visually impressively so in the first 2 runs), certainly nothing that hasn't been well beaten by others. Got a slight scare against Fils D'oudairies who has since gone on to show nothing whatsoever. Showed a suspect temperament before the Marsh. Plenty passed that off as the horse being unsettled by the move of yards, but it didn't seem to bother any of the others. Subsequently falls in what was a relatively weak race.

Playing devils advocate to a certain extent, for financial (i'm on the Shishkin CC/Envoi GC double like many!) and sentimental reasons i'd love him to win a Gold Cup, but once I strip away the hype, there isn't a huge amount to suggest his current price is unfair.

[Outlaw]

If you take out the Envoi Allen hype (which I myself have been incredibly guilty of being part of!) what has he actually shown over fences? In small fields, beaten nothing in particular (albeit visually impressively so in the first 2 runs), certainly nothing that hasn't been well beaten by others. Got a slight scare against Fils D'oudairies who has since gone on to show nothing whatsoever. Showed a suspect temperament before the Marsh. Plenty passed that off as the horse being unsettled by the move of yards, but it didn't seem to bother any of the others. Subsequently falls in what was a relatively weak race.

Playing devils advocate to a certain extent, for financial (i'm on the Shishkin CC/Envoi GC double like many!) and sentimental reasons i'd love him to win a Gold Cup, but once I strip away the hype, there isn't a huge amount to suggest his current price is unfair.

Bang on, when his form is broken down literally it's good but not exceptional. It has a hint of Samcro about it albeit Envoi has achieved more to date in his time on the track vs where Samcro was now. Needs to be showing another 10lb(my ratings not RP/Timeforms)s in open company next season to be winning open G1s, that's not to say that he can't mind.

[Lobos]

Can't disagree with either of the above. For me the same could apply to Shishkin. Whilst he won his races easily , could it be that the 2 mile Novice Chasers last season were very poor ? We will find out soon enough when he goes into open company. I too think he's a superstar but we could all just as easily be way off the mark. That's the beauty of racing.

[archie]

We’ll find out at down royal end of October start of nov.

3m in a grade 1, he wins that he has to be nailed on to go for the gold cup imo. Unless he seriously flops next time after at Xmas.

Wouldn’t surprise me if they go slightly easy on him too, 2 runs before the gold cup, albeit will be top company.

I'd have thought that, if they have him ready for Down Royal, they'll go for the G2 (2m 3.5f) for first and second season chasers. Not many go for a G1 as a first race in open company.

[Outlaw]

Can't disagree with either of the above. For me the same could apply to Shishkin. Whilst he won his races easily , could it be that the 2 mile Novice Chasers last season were very poor ? We will find out soon enough when he goes into open company. I too think he's a superstar but we could all just as easily be way off the mark. That's the beauty of racing.

One big thing in Shishkins favour is he's done it on the clock and earnt the big numbers to boot with how he's visually been winning races.