2022 Championship Division

[Outlaw]

Horses that ran placed in a Supreme and ran in a future Gold Cup this century 6/6. Best Mate x3, Kicking King, War of Attrition, Sizing John. Taken from Gaultstats.
Chantry House 3/15 to Shishkin. Useful form.

Corker if you've come up with that yourself sir.

Didn't spot the Gaulstat tag but great stat non the less.

[archie]

Yep, we get used to these kind of kicks on February but September is hard to take…

Last year was an oddity. Because of lockdown, many were getting their bets on earlier than usual. What was also the case was that there were fewer early casualties than usual and some may have gone ahead this year under the impression that this was the norm. The winter horses will generally come in late July/early August and the period until they are race fit is a nervous time for connections, particularly big units like Monkfish.

[ToniC]

Latest exhibition & eklat de Rire were my two picks at big prices for this last night after hearing the news about monkfish, so imagine my dismay when I came here feeling proud to tell you all about it to see everybody had already cottoned on to them

FWIW, another one I mulled over was Allaho, but on reflection I think they’d be nuts. I was adamant he should have ran in the JLT in 2020 and adamant that the Ryanair would see him to best effect last year and was proven right. I can see the angle, and he’d surely have a chance, but I just don’t think the race will play to his strengths at all.

[Spectre]

Last year was an oddity. Because of lockdown, many were getting their bets on earlier than usual. What was also the case was that there were fewer early casualties than usual and some may have gone ahead this year under the impression that this was the norm. The winter horses will generally come in late July/early August and the period until they are race fit is a nervous time for connections, particularly big units like Monkfish.

Spot on Archie. Unfortunately there will be plenty more adverse news as the season develops. And you're right, we got off particularly lightly last season. I don't remember a season where so few horses had setbacks. These early reminders can be a useful reality check though, and are good note to self moments to make sure that an antepost strategy considers the worst case scenario.

You've got to be pragmatic when it happens though. You can either regard it as a blow or an opportunity. Losing a big player in a race can be tough, but instantly creates value somewhere else, and therefore the potential for bigger returns on another horse. Essentially the task for the others theoretically got easier.

I'm mostly lined up well against Monkfish type news because of my approach, and thanks to someone here I managed to cash out all bar one bet anyway, which was a RAB from last seasons BANC to this seasons Gold Cup. But for others who just want the one winner in their book, and didn't get out quickly it can be a real blow.

Once again this highlights just how important the speed of information is, and the ability to act instantly. I believe from others that were too late to get out, there was probably no more than a 10-15 minute window to cash out, which is much faster than I've seen previously.

But even if I hadn't got out, I'd have taken it on the chin, because I have the winner somewhere else in my book at a big price, and I had completely readjusted my position very quickly after the news broke, and before the market had the opportunity to fully react.

There is a value debate in another thread, and I can't emphasise enough that the opportunity was there for a couple of hours to cover horses at a much better price than their chance of winning with Monkfish out of the race. I suspect many here used that window, but for anyone that didn't I can't emphasize enough that it's one of the best times to get antepost value. If you only had Monkfish backed for the Gold Cup and couldn't cash out, the time to back your next best was quickly after the news broke. It was the optimal time to cover lost Monkfish stakes and maximize the market opportunity before it adjusted to the news.

[knockando]

Once again this highlights just how important the speed of information is, and the ability to act instantly. I believe from others that were too late to get out, there was probably no more than a 10-15 minute window to cash out, which is much faster than I've seen previously.

Morale of the story here...always be on FJ and subscribe to the 'out of the festival' thread. I was in a bloody work meeting and missed the window, but we move on...

[Black Dog]

Well done on cashing Monkfish Spectre,i was considering him for multiples with Ahoy Senor and found out the news when checking his price. I agree with you about balancing out the misfortune as quickly as possible and still can't believe MI's price is still untouched at 6/1 with B3. I know it's too short for a lot on here,but i feel my GC page is better for having some cover on MI,and it's going to take a couple of bad runs to get a bigger price.

[Spectre]

Yes I thought the bookies would all clip Minella Indo a point BD. I agree with you that his price at 6/1 is a good one. He remained unmoved, yet his chance of defending his title improved considerably. Both he and A plus Tard are much shorter elsewhere and I suspect 365 will cut both within days.

After cashing out, my immediate actions were to top up on A Plus Tard, Chantry House, and Envoi Allen. And because I already have a strong position on Minella Indo, he went into some additional multiples.

[Saxon Warrior]

I topped up on the Monkfish news - on Envoi Allen and Asterion Forlonge.

Mainly interested in second season chasers.

Eklat De Rire is the third in my book.

Maybe 365 didn't get sufficient push for Minella Indo and A Plus Tard business to make a move on them.

They did adjust some of the second season chasers at the longer prices though, within an hour or two.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Morale of the story here...always be on FJ and subscribe to the 'out of the festival' thread. I was in a bloody work meeting and missed the window, but we move on...

Real moral of the story......... Quit work.

[knockando]

Real moral of the story......... Quit work.

Agreed. I need Run Wild Fred to stay in bubble wrap and hose up in the NHC to stand any chance of that...

[Black Dog]

Real moral of the story......... Quit work.

[Winging The Last]

Not really Championship divisions but not a novice topic, but what do people think to Santini in the Foxhunters? Do you think it would likely happen now that he’s moved yard to a trainer who has a big connection with the P2P scene and has ridden in the Aintree Foxhunter (Don’t know about the Cheltenham one). Would be a very interesting horse if he went that way

[That Horse]

Not really Championship divisions but not a novice topic, but what do people think to Santini in the Foxhunters? Do you think it would likely happen now that he’s moved yard to a trainer who has a big connection with the P2P scene and has ridden in the Aintree Foxhunter (Don’t know about the Cheltenham one). Would be a very interesting horse if he went that way

33/1 for the gold cup after monkfish's injury.....

[Lobos]

I'd imagine that was the plan WTL. Still wouldn't fancy him though, even in the Foxhunter. He'd still be too slow.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Agreed. I need Run Wild Fred to stay in bubble wrap and hose up in the NHC to stand any chance of that...

I could do with I Am Maximus getting to The Supreme fit and well. He's my anchorman in the majority of my multiples - just hope he doesn't do a CJ Ujah!