2022 Championship Division

[ComplyOrDie]

Surely it's more logical as a starting point to excuse him this one, based on his other performances being so dominant.
You seem to be saying this is him, and for a variety of reasons, all his other form amounts to not very much.
Which I find bizarre.

What you said is actually indisputable for his run that day and I agree 100%, but I would be inclined to forgive that run having looked at his overall form, and not poke holes in all his other races.
You can go on forever like that.
Bit like what we're doing here
Let's just say for argument's sake that I win

[charlie]

CPS likes beating good and occasionally very good horses, but in the context of Cheltenham he's a nothing horse. It's not his fault he's made of glass and missed the festival a load of times, nor is his fault the bookies priced him 8/13, nor is it his fault that WPM placed him superbly vs very good horses like Allaho and FDD, who clearly want further than 2m, or Notebook, who isn't even noteworthy. There's no question he's a very good horse in his own right and I don't think the handicapper has it wildly wrong at all, beating Min was an impressive scalp to take, but at 9 going on 10 and hard to keep right, I'm just gonna forget him and think it will pay to do so.

[Lobos]

Let's not forget Chacun will be 10 come March so whilst not forgetting he's lightly raced, he's unlikely to have any further improvement in him. This and the fact he needs to show he can perform around Cheltenham makes me think the younger Kettle (8 in March) and still open to improving again, is far and away the better value of the 2. Whether she will beat the monster Shishkin is another story.

[Spectre]

1st - Put The Kettle On 6.75 point ew 20/1, 1.25 point ew 22/1
3rd - Chacun Pour Soi 3 point win 6/1

Put The Kettle On 20/1 (Champ Chs), Minella Indo 14/1 (Gold Cup) 1 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 14/1 0.5 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 16/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 10/1 1 point ew double

Monkfish (RSA) 8/1, Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1 1 point ew double

Easysland 2/1, Put The Kettle On 16/1, Minella Indo 14/1 1point ew doubles and 1 point ew treble

I took my usual approach and either PTKO or CPS was a winner, but clearly PTKO was a much bigger winner for me, and I had a reasonable level of confidence in her. My reasoning was the lack of Cheltenham experience from CPS, and the fact that PTKO absolutely relishes it there. Minella Indo and Monkfish were the obvious horses to link her with and it paid off. On reflection I kicked myself that I didn't have her in a treble with Monkfish and Minella Indo. Poor on my behalf given the amount of multiples the three of them appeared in. I think the bets above show my level of belief in her in the lead up. I'd need to check but she was possibly my biggest winner when the multiples are added together. Also, to be fair, I think several others here, including Lobos, were in the PTKO camp.

I could be a smart arse and say I was right in having more stake and the bigger win on PTKO than CPS, but that would actually be completely untrue. I genuinely believe Paul Townend had a shocker on CPS, and with a better ride he would probably have won the race. I think CPS is the better horse and, despite rising 10 by next March, I think he will reverse the form. Essentially I got lucky, and those bets landed because of Townend, not because the stats say that you need course form to win a Champion Chase.

This year I see PTKO more of an each way place type. I think she'll run her usual game race, but Shishkin is an absolute class act that will be positively advantaged by the way the race will be run. All of PTKO, CPS, and Energumene want to be prominent and probably want to dictate from the front setting their own strong pace. They can't all do that so two of them may be inconvenienced to some degree. Shiskin in my mind is a Rolls Royce with a big V12 engine, that can be held up behind the pace, and will power away from a couple of Mercedes and a BMW from the last.

I have an each way bet on PTKO this season because I want her in my book. Anything could happen to the others between now and March, so she has to be there, but I don't have her in a single multiple, and don't see her as the winner at all, such is the difference in the potential quality of race this season compared to last season.

[Quevega]

1st - Put The Kettle On 6.75 point ew 20/1, 1.25 point ew 22/1
3rd - Chacun Pour Soi 3 point win 6/1

Put The Kettle On 20/1 (Champ Chs), Minella Indo 14/1 (Gold Cup) 1 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 14/1 0.5 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 16/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 10/1 1 point ew double

Monkfish (RSA) 8/1, Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1 1 point ew double

Easysland 2/1, Put The Kettle On 16/1, Minella Indo 14/1 1point ew doubles and 1 point ew treble

I took my usual approach and either PTKO or CPS was a winner, but clearly PTKO was a much bigger winner for me, and I had a reasonable level of confidence in her. My reasoning was the lack of Cheltenham experience from CPS, and the fact that PTKO absolutely relishes it there. Minella Indo and Monkfish were the obvious horses to link her with and it paid off. On reflection I kicked myself that I didn't have her in a treble with Monkfish and Minella Indo. Poor on my behalf given the amount of multiples the three of them appeared in. I think the bets above show my level of belief in her in the lead up. I'd need to check but she was possibly my biggest winner when the multiples are added together. Also, to be fair, I think several others here, including Lobos, were in the PTKO camp.

I could be a smart arse and say I was right in having more stake and the bigger win on PTKO than CPS, but that would actually be completely untrue. I genuinely believe Paul Townend had a shocker on CPS, and with a better ride he would probably have won the race. I think CPS is the better horse and, despite rising 10 by next March, I think he will reverse the form. Essentially I got lucky, and those bets landed because of Townend, not because the stats say that you need course form to win a Champion Chase.

This year I see PTKO more of an each way place type. I think she'll run her usual game race, but Shishkin is an absolute class act that will be positively advantaged by the way the race will be run. All of PTKO, CPS, and Energumene want to be prominent and probably want to dictate from the front setting their own strong pace. They can't all do that so two of them may be inconvenienced to some degree. Shiskin in my mind is a Rolls Royce with a big V12 engine, that can be held up behind the pace, and will power away from a couple of Mercedes and a BMW from the last.

I have an each way bet on PTKO this season because I want her in my book. Anything could happen to the others between now and March, so she has to be there, but I don't have her in a single multiple, and don't see her as the winner at all, such is the difference in the potential quality of race this season compared to last season.

These were all early bets though. as an arkle winner, she would have been in most peoples books. Looking at your usual game plan this seems bog standard for you also.
Anyone in your position would have laid her on the day, for stakes back at least.

It's probably not fair to claim your level of belief in her in the lead up, as by the New Year, she'd been soundly beaten and won an effective 2 runner race - just. Her arkle form was also not looking that strong by then either.
The Cheltenham festival winning form came good. A reward for antepost punters, but a surprising one. All things considered.
Was Chacun not in any multiples of yours ??

[Quevega]

1st - Put The Kettle On 6.75 point ew 20/1, 1.25 point ew 22/1
3rd - Chacun Pour Soi 3 point win 6/1

Put The Kettle On 20/1 (Champ Chs), Minella Indo 14/1 (Gold Cup) 1 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 14/1 0.5 point ew double

Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 16/1, Minella Indo (Gold Cup) 10/1 1 point ew double

Monkfish (RSA) 8/1, Put The Kettle On (Champ Chase) 20/1 1 point ew double

Easysland 2/1, Put The Kettle On 16/1, Minella Indo 14/1 1point ew doubles and 1 point ew treble

I took my usual approach and either PTKO or CPS was a winner, but clearly PTKO was a much bigger winner for me, and I had a reasonable level of confidence in her. My reasoning was the lack of Cheltenham experience from CPS, and the fact that PTKO absolutely relishes it there. Minella Indo and Monkfish were the obvious horses to link her with and it paid off. On reflection I kicked myself that I didn't have her in a treble with Monkfish and Minella Indo. Poor on my behalf given the amount of multiples the three of them appeared in. I think the bets above show my level of belief in her in the lead up. I'd need to check but she was possibly my biggest winner when the multiples are added together. Also, to be fair, I think several others here, including Lobos, were in the PTKO camp.

I could be a smart arse and say I was right in having more stake and the bigger win on PTKO than CPS, but that would actually be completely untrue. I genuinely believe Paul Townend had a shocker on CPS, and with a better ride he would probably have won the race. I think CPS is the better horse and, despite rising 10 by next March, I think he will reverse the form. Essentially I got lucky, and those bets landed because of Townend, not because the stats say that you need course form to win a Champion Chase.

This year I see PTKO more of an each way place type. I think she'll run her usual game race, but Shishkin is an absolute class act that will be positively advantaged by the way the race will be run. All of PTKO, CPS, and Energumene want to be prominent and probably want to dictate from the front setting their own strong pace. They can't all do that so two of them may be inconvenienced to some degree. Shiskin in my mind is a Rolls Royce with a big V12 engine, that can be held up behind the pace, and will power away from a couple of Mercedes and a BMW from the last.

I have an each way bet on PTKO this season because I want her in my book. Anything could happen to the others between now and March, so she has to be there, but I don't have her in a single multiple, and don't see her as the winner at all, such is the difference in the potential quality of race this season compared to last season.

The criticism of Townend interests me as although I'd want to blame him as I like them to get on with it at the top of the hill and blow the inferior horses away.
In this case I find it hard to find fault as he delivered the horse perfectly and even took it up before the last in a steadily run race, meaning he wasn't risking an iffy jump.
The horse just didn't quicken when asked after the last.
But he did exactly that 5 weeks earlier in Dublin, so for that reason I can't blame the jockey in this instance.

[charlie]

[B]

I genuinely believe Paul Townend had a shocker on CPS, and with a better ride he would probably have won the race. I think CPS is the better horse and, despite rising 10 by next March, I think he will reverse the form. Essentially I got lucky, and those bets landed because of Townend, not because the stats say that you need course form to win a Champion .

CPS simply wasn't good enough.

CPS raced keenly and job one for Townend was to settle him which he did really well.

CPS made a mistake at the water but Paul kept his cool.

At the top of the hill Townend knows he cant give PTKO an easy lead so gives CPS a brief squeeze which is exactly what he's supposed to do there.

He tanks down the hill tracking PTKO, finds the perfect racing position after jumping the third last up the rail.

Turning in, AC is animated on PTKO and PT clearly feels he has heaps under him, hence why he jumps the second last behind PTKO and the last in front.

He get's out battled, and that's that.

I cannot understand how anyone could blame the ride, let alone find it shocking.

[Spectre]

These were all early bets though. as an arkle winner, she would have been in most peoples books. Looking at your usual game plan this seems bog standard for you also.
Anyone in your position would have laid her on the day, for stakes back at least.

It's probably not fair to claim your level of belief in her in the lead up, as by the New Year, she'd been soundly beaten and won an effective 2 runner race - just. Her arkle form was also not looking that strong by then either.
The Cheltenham festival winning form came good. A reward for antepost punters, but a surprising one. All things considered.
Was Chacun not in any multiples of yours ??

They were early bets Q, and you're right I had laid to stakes back. Where possible I always do. But I did nothing more than that, when I could have taken an easy profit. In my mind the race was a match between her and Chacun and she was the one that has proven she acts around Cheltenham time and again, where as Chacun hadn't been there, and two mile chasers without course experience don't win the race. I was wrong about it being a match too, as Nube Negra split them.

This year is a good example for comparison. I have Shishkin in a single from last year, and a further single at short odds to balance my book. I also have him in a host of multiples. Whereas I have Energumene in my book to a similar takeout, but I expect I'll lay most of it before the race. I think Shishkin will win (as I did PTKO last year), and Energumene is much the same as Chacun last year, without course experience, and I have the additional doubt about him jumping right. I laid Chacun before the race last year, and as I say on reflection, I think I got away with it. If Cahcun had been allowed to be up there leading or alongside PTKO I think it may have been a different result.

In terms of my belief in PTKO holding firm, that was all about tactics. She has to be made use of, and use her jumping and weight allowance to get them off the bridle and make them pass her. HdB didn't do that twice before, and the return to previous tactics was inevitable in my mind. The excuse was valid, and it was certain they would revert to what made her successful.

I don't think the result was a surprise unless anyone was against her all along. She was second favourite, and seemingly with just Chacun to beat, so I've said why I thought he was a poor favourite. If Shishkin didn't make the Festival this year and Energumene was odds on, I'd feel exactly the same.

[Lobos]

Agree Charlie. I've watched it back many times and to me he looks the winner until the final hill and he just empties. It could be he just wasn't 100% on the day but it's dangerous to give him that benefit of doubt. IMO it was the Cheltenham effect and his price suggests many others think the same.

[Spectre]

The criticism of Townend interests me as although I'd want to blame him as I like them to get on with it at the top of the hill and blow the inferior horses away.
In this case I find it hard to find fault as he delivered the horse perfectly and even took it up before the last in a steadily run race, meaning he wasn't risking an iffy jump.
The horse just didn't quicken when asked after the last.
But he did exactly that 5 weeks earlier in Dublin, so for that reason I can't blame the jockey in this instance.

Townend, or perhaps even Willie. It was crazy to switch to hold-up tactics when he's been at his best at the head of affairs. They also new that PTKO's best chance of winning was by being allowed to adopt the tactics that won her that Arkle. Whatever the thought process was, and whoever made the decision to hold Chacun up so long made a very poor decision in my opinion.

[Spectre]

CPS simply wasn't good enough.

CPS raced keenly and job one for Townend was to settle him which he did really well.

CPS made a mistake at the water but Paul kept his cool.

At the top of the hill Townend knows he cant give PTKO an easy lead so gives CPS a brief squeeze which is exactly what he's supposed to do there.

He tanks down the hill tracking PTKO, finds the perfect racing position after jumping the third last up the rail.

Turning in, AC is animated on PTKO and PT clearly feels he has heaps under him, hence why he jumps the second last behind PTKO and the last in front.

He get's out battled, and that's that.

I cannot understand how anyone could blame the ride, let alone find it shocking.

The tactics for the ride Charlie. For me he should have been put in the race at the top of the hill, and not the bottom. All of his best ratings have been achieved when he's been allowed to travel smoothly into his races and to put a gap on the field early enough. Essentially he's generally gone to the front soon enough to dictate the race before it unfolds in front of him

In the better races he'd run in previously he'd moved forward earlier and dictated and put daylight between him and the rest of the field. It was much later this time. Even then he was still only beaten not much more than a length in the dying strides.

Ultimately I accept he may still not have been good enough, but my feeling is he potentially was and they got it wrong.

[Eudipe]

I think Mullins admitted after that they may have got the tactics wrong... said something along the lines of they had a plan based on Politologue setting the gallop (like in 2020) and they should have changed tact with his absence.

[Spectre]

I think Mullins admitted after that they may have got the tactics wrong... said something along the lines of they had a plan based on Politologue setting the gallop (like in 2020) and they should have changed tact with his absence.

Okay thanks Eudipe. I hadn't realised that they thought they got it wrong too. It adds some credence to my thoughts on the race and the way it unfolded.

I think they will be up front much earlier next March, and won't do the same again. The problem is it's a year too late and I suspect Shishkin will be far too good.

[Eudipe]

I couldn't be confident that the track was or wasn't the issue.

The way the race was run... nearly 2 secs slower than the Grand Annual (with Monkfish reportedly quicker on his final circuit) I'd be inclined to give CPS another chance in a truly run affair.

I was/am confident CPS was the best 2 miler in the race as I believe he has demonstrated before & since but in Shishkin & Energumene he faces a stronger challenge this season.

[Saxon Warrior]

The tactics for the ride Charlie. For me he should have been put in the race at the top of the hill, and not the bottom. All of his best ratings have been achieved when he's been allowed to travel smoothly into his races and to put a gap on the field early enough. Essentially he's generally gone to the front soon enough to dictate the race before it unfolds in front of him

In the better races he'd run in previously he'd moved forward earlier and dictated and put daylight between him and the rest of the field. It was much later this time. Even then he was still only beaten not much more than a length in the dying strides.

Ultimately I accept he may still not have been good enough, but my feeling is he potentially was and they got it wrong.

I agree Spectre,

The worst cases to watch are when there is a slow pace, which doesnt suit a fancied horse, but the jockey just sits and suffers instead of having the gumption to take it up, or at least force others to share or make the pace.

Maybe the riders think they have such a good horse that the horse can adapt, and show end-of-race speed as much as an ability to lengthen and stretch a field half-a-mile from home.

I would rather see a horse I backed, do what it does when its been successful, unless the race is run to prevent that.

CPS could easily have led that field last year, he didnt, and he wasnt adaptable enough to show an end-of-race kick, which we now know, he may not have.

Lesson learned, they probably wont repeat those tactics again, and attempt to go on 4F out instead this year.

If they do that through the season, as well, it will be interesting to see how Energumene can react to CPS at his best.

WPM may seek to keep them apart, but I am not sure that works for either horse and their connections.

If CPS goes to the two Irish 2M Grade 1 Chases before Cheltenham (at Christmas and the DRF), and Energumene doesnt, where does he go?

* 2M4F Grade 1 John Durkan in December vs Allaho?
* 2M Tingle Creek in December vs Shishkin and PTKO?
* Run Energumene in 2M Grade 2 races, for much less money, with a penalty?

Tony Bloom the owner of Energumene would have plenty to say about the latter, I reckon!!

I think, like usually happens with Willie, when he looks at the options and the programme book, and sees the options, then he will run them against each other at least once, or maybe both times.

Its the best option usually, and helps to see who is his best chance in the Champion Chase, and whether to run them both in that race or not.