2022 Championship Division

[Dandrew99]

Just to add to that, Galvin is currently rated 154. For him to be of interest in the Grand National already, I assume people must think he is a fair bit better than that? Minella Indo was only rated 164 before he won it this year, so I really don't think he would be out of place.

[Istabraq]

As much as I agree re. Royale Ragaille from last year, don't we pretty much already know he isn't good enough to challenge those you mentioned? His improvement last year was obviously pretty massive, I don't think he will improve enough again this year to make me think he will be up there to be honest.

I guess with Galvin we know he's pretty good, but we don't know how good he is, so yeah I think there is a better chance that Galvin would be able to hit the levels of those you mentioned than that of RP.

In terms of if I see Galvin as better than those you mentioned... obviously the big question is how good the novices are compared to those in open company. Top form Monkfish and Envoi I would say yes they are clearly better, but they both have something to prove after the Punchestown race after an unconvincing Cheltenham. I certainly don't think that it's impossible that Galvin would have beat Monkfish in the RSA given how poorly Monkfish jumped.

Numbers are always up for debate but Royal Pagaille was a 166 horse with a best RPR of 171 before the Gold Cup, Galvin is a 154 horse with a best RPR of 159, I think RP was the most overhyped horse of the season but the official handicapper knows more than me and sees a fair gap in abilities between the two.
That said, Galvin hasn’t always been trying to win races and although he won a very good NH Chase he probably still has more improvement to come but I’d be fairly sure connections will want to make best use of that in his handicap mark and a National bid….

[Dandrew99]

Numbers are always up for debate but Royal Pagaille was a 166 horse with a best RPR of 171 before the Gold Cup, Galvin is a 154 horse with a best RPR of 159, I think RP was the most overhyped horse of the season but the official handicapper knows more than me and sees a fair gap in abilities between the two.
That said, Galvin hasn’t always been trying to win races and although he won a very good NH Chase he probably still has more improvement to come but I’d be fairly sure connections will want to make best use of that in his handicap mark and a National bid….

You're not wrong mate. I am very much on the line of "what if he doesn't?" rather than thinking that the Gold Cup is the more likely route, although I can't say I'm quite as confident as you about the GN route!

[Istabraq]

Yeah, like I said he may become a viable contender if a few of the main group fall away.
It wouldn’t be a total shock to see Galvin race over hurdles until March, if he gets to the National and runs off 154 he could be going off at Tiger Roll type odds…

[Lobos]

Yeah, like I said he may become a viable contender if a few of the main group fall away.
It wouldn’t be a total shock to see Galvin race over hurdles until March, if he gets to the National and runs off 154 he could be going off at Tiger Roll type odds…

The likeliest scenario imo. 1 hurdle run or a chase run over an inadequate trip and then GN. He can then run in the GC the following year after they have pumped his handicap mark up to a ridiculous level. He's every inch a GN winner.

[Istabraq]

The likeliest scenario imo. 1 hurdle run or a chase run over an inadequate trip and then GN. He can then run in the GC the following year after they have pumped his handicap mark up to a ridiculous level. He's every inch a GN winner.

Can see them letting him have a crack at the Ultima though 154 not an easy mark to win with at the festival…

[Lobos]

Can see them letting him have a crack at the Ultima though 154 not an easy mark to win with at the festival…

I don't see him going to the Fez at all. All about the GN. He's proved he can be spot on after a big break between races so March is out for him I reckon

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I seem to say this most years but right now there looks to be group of elite Gold Cup contenders so the question is do you see Galvin as a better horse than Minella Indo, Monkfish, A Plus Tard and Envoi Allen ?
For me every one on that list finishes ahead of Galvin so it's not a race I think they'll consider, but God forbid a couple of high profile withdrawals during the Winter and that can all change.

At the same price I'd be making a case of Royal Pagaille before Galvin, nonsense decision to go Gold Cup last season for a novice who had beaten up on handicappers a couple of times in deep ground at Haydock but given more experience and his ground he could be a runner, he could end up being the best of the British...

I would agree Minella Indo, Monkfish, A Plus Tard and Envoi Allen are a cut above the rest right now. I can’t see many joining that group to be honest. May be Fakir D’Oudairies could join them because with his age he still has room for improvement and increasing stamina. Of them I still think Minella Indo will take all the beating.

[Lobos]

I would agree Minella Indo, Monkfish, A Plus Tard and Envoi Allen are a cut above the rest right now. I can’t see many joining that group to be honest. May be Fakir D’Oudairies could join them because with his age he still has room for improvement and increasing stamina. Of them I still think Minella Indo will take all the beating.

No Elimay then on her form lines through both Colreevy/Monkfish and Allaho ? I'll get you lot to back her don't worry.........

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah, like I said he may become a viable contender if a few of the main group fall away.
It wouldn’t be a total shock to see Galvin race over hurdles until March, if he gets to the National and runs off 154 he could be going off at Tiger Roll type odds…

This has to be the plan off his current mark.

Imagine if Next Destination or Escaria Ten win nicely at the start of the season - the handicapped may bump him up a few lbs without him running.

I'd like to think he's 10lb better than his current rating.

[Istabraq]

This has to be the plan off his current mark.

Imagine if Next Destination or Escaria Ten win nicely at the start of the season - the handicapped may bump him up a few lbs without him running.

I'd like to think he's 10lb better than his current rating.

I'd give him a serious chance in the Hennessy, a very serious chance, but you win that well you find yourself a 165 horse in a flash and that makes a National so much harder so you have to assume they'd be prepared to forego some big pots before Aintree...

[Lobos]

I'd give him a serious chance in the Hennessy, a very serious chance, but you win that well you find yourself a 165 horse in a flash and that makes a National so much harder so you have to assume they'd be prepared to forego some big pots before Aintree...

Agree that they'll not want to ruin his handicap mark. Next season's Grand National is very obviously his prime target and connections will be well aware that 2022 could be his best shot at winning the race. They'll not be going for any other big pots Imo and won't risk running him in any of the big meetings. Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey

[Saxon Warrior]

No Elimay then on her form lines through both Colreevy/Monkfish and Allaho ? I'll get you lot to back her don't worry.........

She is 155 rated and ran well in all her 2M to 2M4F chases so far

With a 7lb allowance that's 162, which isn't high enough yet.

But, if they step her up to 3M and she improved then they could have a decision to make.

I would think that like A Plus Tard and Sizing John, that they would try 3M first time in the Savills at Christmas, if they are interested (this season) in finding an alternate to winning the Mares Chase for the first time.

[Saxon Warrior]

There's no penalties for winning the Grand National, after the weights come out, in February.

So Galvin and all others can run in any race they choose at Cheltenham, or elsewhere, without getting a penalty.

I presume Tiger Roll used the Cross-Country the first year he won the GN, as it was a level weights race full of mostly useless horses, so therefore a much easier prep if he could run well enough around that type of track.

He could have run in the Ultima, or the Gold Cup, but had a much harder race.

I could see Galvin running at Cheltenham next March - with no fear of a penalty.

same as I can see Run Wild Fred running in the NHC, against novices.

Not to say that means they'll win there, but they're with Gordon Elliott and he loves to win at the Fez, and he missed the whole event there last year.

Galvin already has a weight good enough to run in the GN so his programme needs to be tailored to manage that weight until the February weights announcement.

Run Wild Fred is rated 145 so on the cusp of not making the weights.
The lowest rated this year was 145.

So he needs to show a bit more before the weights are announced.

[Spectre]

Gordon most likely will use the Silverbirch, Cause of Causes, Tiger Roll path to the National. It’s worked incredibly well in the past as a way to get to Aintree with the right horse with the right mark,

Hunted round the back as a sighter in November’s XC, a sharpener in The Grimes Hurdle, win the XC in March and then repeat the dose at Aintree if good enough. Gordon is a trainer of habit, and this is a well trodden and successful path.