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Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
…be a nice one in the ‘win today & any race at the Festival’ if somebody can get that priced up with Sky.
May be a nice one for a rollover or a double with a Festival horse.
EDIT: Scrap that idea he is 2/9 Fav.
Why scrap the idea SW ?
At 2/9 you’re boosting the price of anything you throw with it by 22.5%, everyone works differently but for me that’s exactly what I’d use a 2/9 shot for, not a huge boost granted but a boost nonetheless.
That said I lost a couple of accounts doing this last year so it may be something bookies don’t like and your account gets flagged if you do…
She made a big splash on debut. Her first three bumpers were eye-catchingly impressive, not least beating Grangee by 8 lengths. She then slightly disappointed in fourth in the Aintree Mares Bumper, when losing her race because she was far too fresh.
Connections thought her exceptional, and that a flat campaign would take her to the top, and after it hasn't worked out the way they thought it would, presumably we'll see her over hurdles this season, with the possibility of a Mares Novice Hurdle target at the Festival.
I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.
On the face of it her ability would make her of real interest for March where she is 16/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. The trouble is I just can't quite warm to her. It's nothing specific either. She clearly has lots of ability, and should be in the mix with the best of the novice mares next season. Yes, perhaps there's a suspicion that she may want a flat track, and she isn't with a fashinable trainer, but neither of those things would normally put me off. She hasn't had the chance to prove herself at a stiffer course yet, and I don't mind Pam Sly as a trainer. She very capable of readying a good one.
I think perhaps I just need to hear the case 'for' from someone who thinks she's interesting for next season. She probably should be in my Mares Novice Hurdle book for Cheltenham, but I want cashout and 365 are four points shorter at 12/1 which is just too short. Therefore I need pursuading that I should take 16/1 from PP or Sportsbook. In fact she'll be 18/1 with a boost with Sportsbook. 18/1 at 50% better than 365 would perhaps be worth the risk if someone can make a coherant case for her, and get me past the mental block I seem to have with her?
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
I thought the trainer stated that flat racing would be the plan.
She's rated 92 on the flat after 3 hurdles runs, two in Listed races, so it looks like they're searching for black type.
She only been 2 or 3 lengths away from being placed in both those Listed races, so I'm sure the plan would be to go right through the flat campaign looking to bag a win or place in a Listed flat race.
I bet without the plan of making a book on each race so I wouldnt back her until news broke that she would be going hurdling, and/or she had an entry in a hurdle race.
But, as you make a wider betting book then 18/1 doesn't sound out of line, with the chance to cash out.
She hasn't regressed on the flat, her standard is very good.
I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.
My issue with her is that she achieved that rating on debut and all subsequent ratings have been (almost) progressively worse (125, 121, 112, 113) and that carried over into her flat campaign.
Hard to say a horse is regressing at 4 and she may well rediscover some form and become a genuine contender for the Mares Novice but her profile is not one that tells me to start climbing in, I'd really need to see her impress in a couple of hurdle races first....
She made a big splash on debut. Her first three bumpers were eye-catchingly impressive, not least beating Grangee by 8 lengths. She then slightly disappointed in fourth in the Aintree Mares Bumper, when losing her race because she was far too fresh.
Connections thought her exceptional, and that a flat campaign would take her to the top, and after it hasn't worked out the way they thought it would, presumably we'll see her over hurdles this season, with the possibility of a Mares Novice Hurdle target at the Festival.
I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.
On the face of it her ability would make her of real interest for March where she is 16/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. The trouble is I just can't quite warm to her. It's nothing specific either. She clearly has lots of ability, and should be in the mix with the best of the novice mares next season. Yes, perhaps there's a suspicion that she may want a flat track, and she isn't with a fashinable trainer, but neither of those things would normally put me off. She hasn't had the chance to prove herself at a stiffer course yet, and I don't mind Pam Sly as a trainer. She very capable of readying a good one.
I'm like you Spectre, I've not really taken to her, probably likely to do with her trainer etc... I noticed the RPR of 125 was from her debut, she then ran and won twice and both times recorded lower RPR's, maybe she was just primed for that debut run, or maybe she just looked a whole heap better because of the opposition, or maybe it was the trip difference, whatever the reason I usually like to see an increase in potential ratings as the season progresses. Purely based on collateral form (through Grangee) she should have the beating of Elle Est Belle, so the price difference makes little sense.
I think perhaps I just need to hear the case 'for' from someone who thinks she's interesting for next season. She probably should be in my Mares Novice Hurdle book for Cheltenham, but I want cashout and 365 are four points shorter at 12/1 which is just too short. Therefore I need pursuading that I should take 16/1 from PP or Sportsbook. In fact she'll be 18/1 with a boost with Sportsbook. 18/1 at 50% better than 365 would perhaps be worth the risk if someone can make a coherant case for her, and get me past the mental block I seem to have with her?
Yes Sportsbook do CoD, but it's hit and miss for me, and they have a habit of taking it away when you're not expecting it. I'll use them generally if I'm okay that the race in question is the target, or the price is significantly bigger than 365 to tempt me.
I think from all the comments above from very well respected judges, we are all in a similar place with her. Step one is we need confirmation of a hurdling campaign. Step two is we need to know that the Mares Hurlde is at the very least a consideration, and she won't be regarded as an Aintree type. Step three is she needs to prove she's progressive enough to be in the mix with the best novice mares. Until we have an inkling that all three may happen best price with reliable cashout of 12/1 is a terrible price.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Yes Sportsbook do CoD, but it's hit and miss for me, and they have a habit of taking it away when you're not expecting it.
Yeah you definitely have to keep an eye on it, I have all of my early BF Sportsbook antepost stuff available for cashout, but I noticed one day that the 'cash out' tab, which shows the number of bets you have, stopped updating and that I wasn't being given it anymore, even if the little circle icon was included on the betslip when I placed it. I queried this with their customer services who basically just said it's one of those things etc... I have placed a few different bets of varying stakes since I noticed and not a single one of them was made available for cash out. As it happens, I just got in touch with them again moments ago about it all and received the following response:
"Regarding your cash-out query, unfortunately Cash out is not always available and guaranteed. Due to its nature, it's only available when the traders have a fair cash out price to offer and the liquidity of the market is high. Also these decisions are taken/done by our traders and therefore we have no means to reverse/change such terms.
I appreciate you may have been hoping for a different outcome here, but unfortunately there is nothing else I would be able to do for you in this case."
Arctic Warrior- is back out again Thursday, now I'm not saying he might end up Cheltenham class but he was cruising before diving at one two out looking like he would beat Decimation who ties in to mid 130 novices easily. He got mentioned a bit last year due to his half sibling being Arctic Fire, he's in a race over 20f and will be very short especially with trainer/owner combo for this 20f maiden but I'm interested in how he goes after that clumsy mistake lto with an eye to down the line.
….hard to know what to make of that given the opposition. Pulled hard, didn’t jump particularly well but won going away at the end.
She made a big splash on debut. Her first three bumpers were eye-catchingly impressive, not least beating Grangee by 8 lengths. She then slightly disappointed in fourth in the Aintree Mares Bumper, when losing her race because she was far too fresh.
Connections thought her exceptional, and that a flat campaign would take her to the top, and after it hasn't worked out the way they thought it would, presumably we'll see her over hurdles this season, with the possibility of a Mares Novice Hurdle target at the Festival.
I think I'm right in saying that her RPR of 125 was the highest for any Mare last season, which is ahead of Elle Est Belle and Grangee, so he has the right basic credentials.
On the face of it her ability would make her of real interest for March where she is 16/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle. The trouble is I just can't quite warm to her. It's nothing specific either. She clearly has lots of ability, and should be in the mix with the best of the novice mares next season. Yes, perhaps there's a suspicion that she may want a flat track, and she isn't with a fashinable trainer, but neither of those things would normally put me off. She hasn't had the chance to prove herself at a stiffer course yet, and I don't mind Pam Sly as a trainer. She very capable of readying a good one.
I think perhaps I just need to hear the case 'for' from someone who thinks she's interesting for next season. She probably should be in my Mares Novice Hurdle book for Cheltenham, but I want cashout and 365 are four points shorter at 12/1 which is just too short. Therefore I need pursuading that I should take 16/1 from PP or Sportsbook. In fact she'll be 18/1 with a boost with Sportsbook. 18/1 at 50% better than 365 would perhaps be worth the risk if someone can make a coherant case for her, and get me past the mental block I seem to have with her?
I will be keeping a close eye on 'Me too Please' who beat both Elle est Belle and Eileendover ( rec'd 6lb from the winner) at Aintree. Me too please then went on to finish a decent 3rd to Saldier who was considered a Champion Hurdle horse before breaking his nose in a nasty fall. Saldier has since gone on to win a competitive handicap at the Galway festival and has earned an official rating of 162 on the back of it. If Arthur Moore decides to send her novice hurdling I will be adding her to my antepost book.
….hard to know what to make of that given the opposition. Pulled hard, didn’t jump particularly well but won going away at the end.
Yeah beat trees and hardly slick but very early days and good to see him non the worse for lto, crystal clear he will be better amongst better horses with a proper pace,. It will be interesting to see how he is campaigned as even if beat by better novices come the winter a hcap hurdle could surface at some stage but we shall see.
I will be keeping a close eye on 'Me too Please' who beat both Elle est Belle and Eileendover ( rec'd 6lb from the winner) at Aintree. Me too please then went on to finish a decent 3rd to Saldier who was considered a Champion Hurdle horse before breaking his nose in a nasty fall. Saldier has since gone on to win a competitive handicap at the Galway festival and has earned an official rating of 162 on the back of it. If Arthur Moore decides to send her novice hurdling I will be adding her to my antepost book.
Yes she's one I already have in my book FOTT. 14/1 with cashout is a fair price for the Aintree Bumper winner. As you say the risk is they put her away for the winter and have a crack at a flat campaign. On the plus side she hasn't been seen for a couple of months, so it's more likely she's on her holidays before a hurdle campaign.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Hi all, new forum member here and glad to meet you all. Just thought I'd make my first post by putting forward an interesting horse that may not have been mentioned on here as of yet,
Saint Felicien
Out of Saint Des Saints. Was bought by Robcour in April and is going to Gordon Elliott. I am just not sure if this will still be a novice hurdler when the jumps season comes around as it won its only run in France very convincingly in March as a Juvenile. The replay can be found on ATR here
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