2022 Novice Hurdle Division

[Craigy14]

I had Bring On The Night on my tracker all last season.

Pure flat pedigree and by Gleneagles, so not a recent type for the Supreme, but I would love more decent flat pedigree horses to run over hurdles.

Yeah agree about the supreme, be keeping an eye for ballymore prices.

Probably start over 2m like most seem to.

[Atlantic Viking]

My latest obsession for evening study is I Am Maximus, particularly as his 50s for the Supreme continues to stick out like a sore thumb given he already has course form and achieved it whilst running very much on the green side. I think most of what can be said about a horse who has run once and not been since since has been said already, particularly the My Drogo form, but a quick scan of previous seasons either side of the water shows his 125 RPR on debut as a 4yo compares perfectly well and is 1 better than the much hyped Jonbon who debuted as a 5yo. Anyway, there isn't much in the way of talk to be found about him at present and Henderson talk is to be taken with more than a pinch of salt, but I did find the following:

Quote from Oct 2020 prior to debut:
He’s a very, very nice horse and I like him a lot. We’re throwing him in at the deep end but he won’t be miles away and I hope he’s up to it.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...-lot-1.1618455

Quote from Oct 2020:
It’s great to have Mike Grech back in the yard and this is a lovely horse who was impressive at Cheltenham on his debut recently, but we’ll go quietly as he’s all about the future. I doubt we’ll go hurdling this season as he’s only a baby and we want to mind him, but he’ll be very good.
Source: https://blog.racebets.de/nicky-henderson-stable-tour

Quote from Feb 2021:
I was also hoping to run I Am Maximus in the Listed Bumper at Newbury tomorrow but he got sick a couple of weeks ago so had a few easy days but his tests are now all clear and hopefully we can crack back on with him but he certainly won’t be going to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper. There is the option of the one at Aintree but I rather fancy taking Balco Coastal up there after he scored very impressively at Kempton in the week. He was purchased at the Goffs UK Point to Point Sale at Yorton Farm Stud and I think he could be very high class indeed.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...race-1.1705062

Balco Coastal was a 24l 7th of 18 in the race referred to above and the general tone of the quote dampened my enthusiasm for IAM a little bit, but probably without justification.

Video from Feb 2021
There's also this short vid I found of him doing a piece of work with Buzz, where to my untrained eye IAM still looks a bit green and not overly impressive, although he is almost a full 2 years younger than Buzz and a 15sec clip is not much to base an opinion on: https://twitter.com/jess_stafford_/s...54544621629440

Anyway, apologies for another waffle, but it's naturally quiet at present and I was just curious on others thoughts, if any at this stage?! Maybe the 50s is perfectly fair, it can be wryly amusing reading the bold optimism for certain young horses on Henderson blogs and then checking the results that follow... To me though he's definitely one to get in the book (with cashout) at least, if that's your thing.

[Lobos]

Think there was a fair bit of noise on here early on referring to the My Drogo form and plenty have taken the 50's like you. He's certainly not gone unnoticed and is one very much to keep an eye on for possibly topping up on when entered up. A Henderson horse in the Supreme is always worth more than a second look. He and Mullins have milked that race over the last decade.

[Eggs]

Atlantic Viking ….notice a few Sky RaBs including I am Maximus, so it’s clearly not gone under the radar;

IAM/Jonbon a/r 80-1
IAM/Go Dante/Three Stripes Life/Jeff Kidder place a/r 200-1

There are some more.

[Outlaw]

My latest obsession for evening study is I Am Maximus, particularly as his 50s for the Supreme continues to stick out like a sore thumb given he already has course form and achieved it whilst running very much on the green side. I think most of what can be said about a horse who has run once and not been since since has been said already, particularly the My Drogo form, but a quick scan of previous seasons either side of the water shows his 125 RPR on debut as a 4yo compares perfectly well and is 1 better than the much hyped Jonbon who debuted as a 5yo. Anyway, there isn't much in the way of talk to be found about him at present and Henderson talk is to be taken with more than a pinch of salt, but I did find the following:

Quote from Oct 2020 prior to debut:
He’s a very, very nice horse and I like him a lot. We’re throwing him in at the deep end but he won’t be miles away and I hope he’s up to it.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...-lot-1.1618455

Quote from Oct 2020:
It’s great to have Mike Grech back in the yard and this is a lovely horse who was impressive at Cheltenham on his debut recently, but we’ll go quietly as he’s all about the future. I doubt we’ll go hurdling this season as he’s only a baby and we want to mind him, but he’ll be very good.
Source: https://blog.racebets.de/nicky-henderson-stable-tour

Quote from Feb 2021:
I was also hoping to run I Am Maximus in the Listed Bumper at Newbury tomorrow but he got sick a couple of weeks ago so had a few easy days but his tests are now all clear and hopefully we can crack back on with him but he certainly won’t be going to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper. There is the option of the one at Aintree but I rather fancy taking Balco Coastal up there after he scored very impressively at Kempton in the week. He was purchased at the Goffs UK Point to Point Sale at Yorton Farm Stud and I think he could be very high class indeed.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...race-1.1705062

Balco Coastal was a 24l 7th of 18 in the race referred to above and the general tone of the quote dampened my enthusiasm for IAM a little bit, but probably without justification.

Video from Feb 2021
There's also this short vid I found of him doing a piece of work with Buzz, where to my untrained eye IAM still looks a bit green and not overly impressive, although he is almost a full 2 years younger than Buzz and a 15sec clip is not much to base an opinion on: https://twitter.com/jess_stafford_/s...54544621629440

Anyway, apologies for another waffle, but it's naturally quiet at present and I was just curious on others thoughts, if any at this stage?! Maybe the 50s is perfectly fair, it can be wryly amusing reading the bold optimism for certain young horses on Henderson blogs and then checking the results that follow... To me though he's definitely one to get in the book (with cashout) at least, if that's your thing.

I touched on him when the bumper form started to stack up, I touched on his action looked so gangly and unnatural. Looking at him again it's a very high knee action and whilst I'm not knocking 50s pokes I already envisage softer surfaces and further for him.

[OverTheLast]

Thoughts on Journey With Me, lads?

A lot are keen for the Ballymore but he’s an AB horse imo

[Lobos]

Thoughts on Journey With Me, lads?

A lot are keen for the Ballymore but he’s an AB horse imo

He's the next Bollinger for me. Ballymore all the way. Built a book around him.

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

He's the next Bollinger for me. Ballymore all the way. Built a book around him.

You’re probably right Lobos but it’s a little premature to be that certain. He’s already won over 2m 2f on Heavy ground by 13 lengths so 3m on spring ground shouldn’t be ruled out. Just because he’s won the same bumper and shares the same owners it would be wrong to assume that makes him the same horse. I don’t know at this stage where he’ll go but his first entry will be insightful.

[Lobos]

You’re probably right Lobos but it’s a little premature to be that certain. He’s already won over 2m 2f on Heavy ground by 13 lengths so 3m on spring ground shouldn’t be ruled out. Just because he’s won the same bumper and shares the same owners it would be wrong to assume that makes him the same horse. I don’t know at this stage where he’ll go but his first entry will be insightful.

Agree, nothing can be ruled out in this game. I'm not certain at all. I do tend to take a stance about a few and go with my gut and he is one of them. At 20/1 you don't need to break the bank on him or others to build a good looking pot. Plenty of time to take another path if he goes elsewhere. I have covered him for the Potato race also which would easily cover my entire stakes on him and more . Lots of these big trainers do like taking in the same races with horses every season as Saxon has highlighted many times. A bit like us, if it works for them, they'll not change it.

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Journey With Me - liked his debut in same 2m 2f Bumper Bob Olinger won.

They look different types to my untrained eye, Bob is athletic and has speed but I thought Journey looked a proper 3m chasing sort, so backed him in Bartlett.

I would be surprised if Journey had enough speed for Ballymore to beat the likes of Kilcruit.
Just my initial thoughts, been wrong plenty of times.

[Istabraq]

I would be surprised if Journey had enough speed for Ballymore to beat the likes of Kilcruit.

Who would you prefer if they both showed up in the Potato race ?

[ComplyOrDie]

He's the next Bollinger for me. Ballymore all the way. Built a book around him.

Whilst he has been very good to date, the difference is we saw a turn of foot from Bob Olinger in his bumper, as opposed to what seemed more a galloping type finish from Journey With Me. I'm not sure how many galloping types win Ballymores? Maybe could argue there has been the odd one or two, but even heavier built animals like Samcro or Envoi Allen won decent enough Grade 1's over 2m during the season leading up to the race. It will be interesting to see where Journey With Me starts life out, and what races he competes in leading up to the festival.

On a plus side for Journey With Me, his Grand dam produced Racing Demon, who finished a close up 2nd in the Ballymore of 2005.

[Geordieboy83]

I had JWM as a AB horse, but the more I keep thinking and going back over, maybe I got it wrong and is actually a ballymore type. Time will tell I suppose.

[OverTheLast]

Whilst he has been very good to date, the difference is we saw a turn of foot from Bob Olinger in his bumper, as opposed to what seemed more a galloping type finish from Journey With Me. I'm not sure how many galloping types win Ballymores? Maybe could argue there has been the odd one or two, but even heavier built animals like Samcro or Envoi Allen won decent enough Grade 1's over 2m during the season leading up to the race. It will be interesting to see where Journey With Me starts life out, and what races he competes in leading up to the festival.

On a plus side for Journey With Me, his Grand dam produced Racing Demon, who finished a close up 2nd in the Ballymore of 2005.

My thoughts 100%. Closing speed wins Ballymore’s imo. JWM looks a dour stayer

[Silverbirch]

People swore blind Appreciate it was a stayer, here we are, a supreme monster and easy fave for the arkle.

I'd have him as a Ballymore as it stands. And it's hard to imagine he won't follow bobs route. Until he's beat maybe