2022 Novice Hurdle Division

[Lobos]

Another reason I think they'll possibly go Ballymore over Albert is that he was bought to be a chaser and the Albert can be a gruelling race for Novices. Henry will be mindful of that .

[OverTheLast]

Worked ok for Minella Indo!

[Lobos]

Worked ok for Minella Indo!

Indeed but he was definitely a proper Stayer and was always crying out for 3+ . He'd have been destroyed in a Ballymore.

[Ice]

People swore blind Appreciate it was a stayer, here we are, a supreme monster and easy fave for the arkle.

I'd have him as a Ballymore as it stands. And it's hard to imagine he won't follow bobs route. Until he's beat maybe

I was just thinking the same thing and appreciate it would have been in ballymore if not for the injury to ferny hollow, it worked out well though !

[OverTheLast]

Another angle for the AB could be Robcour have other Ballymore types in Grand Jury and Gerri Colombe.

[Atlantic Viking]

I don't know how we can say either way on what sort of speed is under the bonnet of Journey With Me, he barely got out of first gear the whole way round at Gowran Park and was pretty much eased down almost 3 furlongs out, he was never asked for anything at any point! Not sure i've ever seen such an easy win, it was ridiculous and I dread to think how many times i've rewatched it.
Like Lobos , I have a fair old book built around him for the Ballymore, whilst a little bit on for the Potato just incase and a decent chunk at 9s TWAR. I know plenty scoff at such prices this far out for such horses, but I love the horse and i'm happy to have it as part of my armoury.
I think the Ballymore is the more obvious target. Don't forget when comparing the early runs of the pair that Henry always intended Bob Olinger to go for the Supreme, but was talked out of it. I think this lad looks much more obvious. Ground was also a mudbath compared to Bobs first run at Gowran.

[Lobos]

Hands up who's done Gypsy Island for the Mares Novice Hurdle?? Fav for the race ante post for the last 2 seasons and rightly so in view of beating subsequent Festival winners Colreevy and Heaven Help Us and finishing 2nd over hurdles to an Arkle and Champion Chase winner in Put The Kettle On. Nothing can possibly match that form. 2 years off but proved her fitness with a cosy hurdles victory this season from a horse who won her next race easily by a wide margin. Surely the obvious race target will be the Mares Novice again and hopefully she can make it 3rd time lucky and this time make the gig. If she does and turn up in anything approaching her previous form she'd be fav again and go very close to winning in my book.

[Lobos]

Following GI's comeback win...

Trainer Peter Fahey said: "I'm delighted with her and fair play to everyone at Martinstown (JP McManus' stud) who gave her the rehab and did everything to get her back.
"She was keen the whole way through the race but at least we've started her off and we'll go from here.

"She had an injury behind and wasn't right when she started back, so we gave her loads of time and in fairness to Frank (Berry), the vets and everyone at Martinstown did a brilliant job.

"She will improve massively from this and I don't know what the plans are - I'll speak to Frank and J.P. and see. I don't think she wants the ground all-out quick, but we'll see how she is in the morning and makes plans. It is brilliant to get today out of the way.

[Fouroverthrutwo]

My latest obsession for evening study is I Am Maximus, particularly as his 50s for the Supreme continues to stick out like a sore thumb given he already has course form and achieved it whilst running very much on the green side. I think most of what can be said about a horse who has run once and not been since since has been said already, particularly the My Drogo form, but a quick scan of previous seasons either side of the water shows his 125 RPR on debut as a 4yo compares perfectly well and is 1 better than the much hyped Jonbon who debuted as a 5yo. Anyway, there isn't much in the way of talk to be found about him at present and Henderson talk is to be taken with more than a pinch of salt, but I did find the following:

Quote from Oct 2020 prior to debut:
He’s a very, very nice horse and I like him a lot. We’re throwing him in at the deep end but he won’t be miles away and I hope he’s up to it.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...-lot-1.1618455

Quote from Oct 2020:
It’s great to have Mike Grech back in the yard and this is a lovely horse who was impressive at Cheltenham on his debut recently, but we’ll go quietly as he’s all about the future. I doubt we’ll go hurdling this season as he’s only a baby and we want to mind him, but he’ll be very good.
Source: https://blog.racebets.de/nicky-henderson-stable-tour

Quote from Feb 2021:
I was also hoping to run I Am Maximus in the Listed Bumper at Newbury tomorrow but he got sick a couple of weeks ago so had a few easy days but his tests are now all clear and hopefully we can crack back on with him but he certainly won’t be going to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper. There is the option of the one at Aintree but I rather fancy taking Balco Coastal up there after he scored very impressively at Kempton in the week. He was purchased at the Goffs UK Point to Point Sale at Yorton Farm Stud and I think he could be very high class indeed.
Source: https://www.unibet.co.uk/blog/horse-...race-1.1705062

Balco Coastal was a 24l 7th of 18 in the race referred to above and the general tone of the quote dampened my enthusiasm for IAM a little bit, but probably without justification.

Video from Feb 2021
There's also this short vid I found of him doing a piece of work with Buzz, where to my untrained eye IAM still looks a bit green and not overly impressive, although he is almost a full 2 years younger than Buzz and a 15sec clip is not much to base an opinion on: https://twitter.com/jess_stafford_/s...54544621629440

Anyway, apologies for another waffle, but it's naturally quiet at present and I was just curious on others thoughts, if any at this stage?! Maybe the 50s is perfectly fair, it can be wryly amusing reading the bold optimism for certain young horses on Henderson blogs and then checking the results that follow... To me though he's definitely one to get in the book (with cashout) at least, if that's your thing.

I too am strangely attracted (like a moth to a flame) to I Am Maximus. I thought he looked really green when debuting and beating My Drogo and I think he will benefit from a year off the racecourse to fill out and strengthen up. As you have pointed out Nicky Henderson seems very keen on the horse and the fact that he wanted to mind him suggests he is held in high regard. I think 50/1 with cash out is very generous particularly as he is as low as 16/1 with some bookmakers. Obviously time will tell whether he's good enough to contest a Supreme (or Ballymore) but on bare form (using Ballyadam as a yardstick) it appears he could be.

[Spectre]

Following GI's comeback win...

Trainer Peter Fahey said: "I'm delighted with her and fair play to everyone at Martinstown (JP McManus' stud) who gave her the rehab and did everything to get her back.
"She was keen the whole way through the race but at least we've started her off and we'll go from here.

"She had an injury behind and wasn't right when she started back, so we gave her loads of time and in fairness to Frank (Berry), the vets and everyone at Martinstown did a brilliant job.

"She will improve massively from this and I don't know what the plans are - I'll speak to Frank and J.P. and see. I don't think she wants the ground all-out quick, but we'll see how she is in the morning and makes plans. It is brilliant to get today out of the way.

I think the problem is the last part of Fahey’s statement, ‘I don’t think she wants all out quick ground’, combined with two years out with injury. They’ll surely be careful with her, and I suspect finding some black type will be the objective this season.

Given how long she’s been out she has to be a watching brief until she’s stepped up into decent company. I agree though, her back form means she is one to keep a very close eye on.

[OscarWhisky]

Hands up who's done Gypsy Island for the Mares Novice Hurdle?? Fav for the race ante post for the last 2 seasons and rightly so in view of beating subsequent Festival winners Colreevy and Heaven Help Us and finishing 2nd over hurdles to an Arkle and Champion Chase winner in Put The Kettle On. Nothing can possibly match that form. 2 years off but proved her fitness with a cosy hurdles victory this season from a horse who won her next race easily by a wide margin. Surely the obvious race target will be the Mares Novice again and hopefully she can make it 3rd time lucky and this time make the gig. If she does and turn up in anything approaching her previous form she'd be fav again and go very close to winning in my book.

Lobos did you watch the race? That was anything but cosy. She looked booked for second to me until the then leader blundered the last and couldn’t recover. I wasn’t aware that that same horse has gone on to win well. If you like GI then you must like the runner up. Having said that I’m sure GI will improve for that…

[Lobos]

Lobos did you watch the race? That was anything but cosy. She looked booked for second to me until the then leader blundered the last and couldn’t recover. I wasn’t aware that that same horse has gone on to win well. If you like GI then you must like the runner up. Having said that I’m sure GI will improve for that…

Yeah, watched it. She looked like she needed it badly/blew up but when the second made a mistake she went past her and was well on top at the line. She's come out of the race great/sound and we should hopefully see a much more fluent performance next time. If she's 90% back to her best then she'd have them for breakfast.

[Olliemagern]

Annie G just hacked up at Galway to further boost ya gypsy island form

[Lobos]

Annie G just hacked up at Galway to further boost ya gypsy island form

Yep, not surprised at all. Every race GI has ran in has been boosted. If she were to go Mares Novice then she'd surely go off a strong fav in the same sort of form. My only concern is they may well think she is good enough to take on the older Mares on the Tuesday. It'll be interesting where she is entered up next. Good to have her on board though.

You have to take on board when GI beat Annie last time Annie had a fitness advantage having already had a run over GI who was running off a 2 year absence. Also GI was giving her 8lbs which, based on today's evidence, was an impossible task. There's no masking that GI is the real thing. Can you trust her staying sound though? That is the dilemma. I am prepared to take that risk. Are you ??? 20/1 still available. She could easily go off odds on or not run at all......

[That Horse]

Is Annie G not a player now as well? 5 year old and improving although doesn't seem to priced up for anything/anywhere yet.