Cheltenham 2022 - March Yankee

[archie]

That turn of phrase makes it sound rather dramatic. "This century" consists of 21 festivals so with 4 examples of 1st/2nd place returning to win that's pretty much 1 in 5... which is actually not that bad a strike rate.

It's actually 1 in 10 in terms of strike rate though because you have 2 bets each year.

It's very rare that more than one of the previous year's champions retains their crown and, over the 4 main divisions, it's even rarer that the runners up come back and win. The last runner up in the Champion Hurdle to come back and win the next renewal was Hors La Loi and that was 2 years later because of foot and mouth. The last runner up to win the Champion Hurdle one year on was Sea Pigeon in 1980. More recently, it's a quirk of fate that, over the last 6 years, 3 horses have been second 2 years on the spin.

Bregawn (1982) and Kauto Star (2009) are the only Gold Cup winners in the last 40 years that were runners up the previous year.

In the Stayers Hurdle, Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck's give it a good record for repeat winners but not runners up coming back to win.

[Viking Flagship]

But it is the case that on 1 in 5 occasions this century one of the QM 1st/2nd has gone on to win it the following year. This would not be a stat that would have me either rushing to back them or ruling them out completely. It's just not a number to draw conclusions from - imo.

Special Tiara was 3rd in '16 before winning in '17. So in fact the winners in 2016 2017 2019 and 2020 had all come from the previous year's renewal.

And what about stats relating to proven Cheltenham form? Nube Negra has now ticked quite an important box that he didn't have previously.

I don't strongly believe either PTKO or Nube Negra will win next year's Champion Chase, but I certainly wouldn't be ruling either of them out based purely on stats.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

[Ice]

Not big on stats but some can be very useful, a lot can be manipulated to people's point of view though.

[Penzance]

I still like APT for the GC. Another year older and wiser, stronger etc. He wasn't so far away from Minella Indo

I agree strongly with this. I really like him and as I said before like 8 year olds in the GC

[FinalFurlong91]

A Plus Tard definitely has the engine but he is just too slow away from his fences

minella indo was landing running, a plus tard was landing flat footed and losing a length at every fence

it cost him the ryanair in 2020 too

[MadeinJapan]

A Plus Tard definitely has the engine but he is just too slow away from his fences

minella indo was landing running, a plus tard was landing flat footed and losing a length at every fence

it cost him the ryanair in 2020 too

I backed APT this year & thought the exact above as to why he didn’t win - I thought his jumping was pretty ponderous/slow at the fences but his speed between them & his engine kept him bang there in contention. As archie pointed out too, he’s had more races over fences than Minella Indo. The dark horse for me in the race is Chantry House - given what Hendo said about stepping up in trip & the fact Champ is so quirky think they’ll give it a shot. For the March Yankee & purpose of this thread I’d avoid the GC for now...

[Birds Nest]

A Plus Tard definitely has the engine but he is just too slow away from his fences

minella indo was landing running, a plus tard was landing flat footed and losing a length at every fence

it cost him the ryanair in 2020 too

There is also the chance that if Envoi allen turns out to be the 3m chaser most hope, cps may split apt and him up, apt could end up back in the ryanair.

[Ice]

Cps have certainly got some firepower, envoi, a plus and allaho, they could easily cover the big 3 chases and swap the targets around, if need be.

[Eggs]

...more positive reports on here for SheWearsitWell in the Mares & still a bit of juice in her price.

[archie]

Not big on stats but some can be very useful, a lot can be manipulated to people's point of view though.

The usefulness of stats is a) in combination and, b) in investigating what is behind them.

Going back to the Champion Chase runners up struggling to win the next year, the link between the 2 that managed it was that the horse that beat them the first time didn't turn up the next year. In all the championship races in the last 40 years, it would appear that it is very rare for a horse to have actually turned the tables on a winner that defends its title. There is no reason to believe that either Nube Negra or A Plus Tard will improve more than their conquerors so part of backing them this far out would be the implicit hope that PTKO and Minella Indo won't turn up. When you add second season chasers in to the mix, I'd have both as poor candidates for a place in this yankee.

[Kautostar]

The usefulness of stats is a) in combination and, b) in investigating what is behind them.

Going back to the Champion Chase runners up struggling to win the next year, the link between the 2 that managed it was that the horse that beat them the first time didn't turn up the next year. In all the championship races in the last 40 years, it would appear that it is very rare for a horse to have actually turned the tables on a winner that defends its title. There is no reason to believe that either Nube Negra or A Plus Tard will improve more than their conquerors so part of backing them this far out would be the implicit hope that PTKO and Minella Indo won't turn up. When you add second season chasers in to the mix, I'd have both as poor candidates for a place in this yankee.

Agree add in the fact that the novices look strong at this stage makes those horses bad bets imo

[Birds Nest]

The usefulness of stats is a) in combination and, b) in investigating what is behind them.

Going back to the Champion Chase runners up struggling to win the next year, the link between the 2 that managed it was that the horse that beat them the first time didn't turn up the next year. In all the championship races in the last 40 years, it would appear that it is very rare for a horse to have actually turned the tables on a winner that defends its title. There is no reason to believe that either Nube Negra or A Plus Tard will improve more than their conquerors so part of backing them this far out would be the implicit hope that PTKO and Minella Indo won't turn up. When you add second season chasers in to the mix, I'd have both as poor candidates for a place in this yankee.

Yes i see your point Archie, i was looking at champion chase runners up cheltenham record the following year, so i had min and un de sceaux as follow up winners too, that would make it 4 this century, although at a different distance of course.

[FinalFurlong91]

...more positive reports on here for SheWearsitWell in the Mares & still a bit of juice in her price.

Dunno id say she's a pretty short price personally

Given that she has been injured and weve not seen her for months

And that she is completely untested against quality mares

This far out id want bigger than 14s myself

Id have black tears, concertista and tellmesomethinggirl as better value right now at 8s and 12s given they are proven and have track form

[Istabraq]

...more positive reports on here for SheWearsitWell in the Mares & still a bit of juice in her price.

One thing to consider is the quality of the novice division this year which, for probably the first time since it's inception, had some real depth.
Concertista, Black Tears, if age hasn't caught up then Benie is a contender plus the novices, it's a division with some talent now...

[Halffat1]

A general point for consideration, when it comes to antepost prices sometimes timing is everything, does that mean that the March yankee could feature a general bias for backing horses aimed and expected to run well at Aintree, with perhaps the April yankee declared a couple of days early ahead of the Punchestown Festival? Just a thought.