Cheltenham 2022 - March Yankee

[somer1]

Vanillier 20/1 for the stayers hurdle. Seems like a standard progression after the Albert Bartlett.

Meant to be going chasing ( see chasing or hurdles thread )

[FinalFurlong91]

Won't Ferny hollow just miss second season hurdles and go for the arkle? Would fancy him there at 12/1...

Just my opinion where I think they should go

Not going to be any plans set in stone a year out

[Quevega]

Think someone mentioned Dickie Diver.
This seems a good shout, due to age and likely experience as a second season novice.
They must have discussed keeping his novice status now till next year.

I'd say the same for Ontheropes also.
Assuming he's alive and well, he would really fit the bill for this race, and that form behind Monkfish and in front of Sam's Profile, Diol Ker & Escaria Ten looks decent now.
Not priced up but if in training then he should be.

Both these - if they remain novices going into next season would more than likely only have the NH chase as the target, unless they end up very well handicapped of course.

[Spectre]

I'd say this far out the basic criteria should be certainty of race, followed by chance of win. Price shouldn't be a consideration. People were saying 5/1 about Shishkin and Envoi Allen were too short last year, and to a man wished they'd igned their own advice and included them in multiples at that price.

We're in the lap of the gods where injuries are concerned, and if a horse has an ijury he doesn't know whether he's 2/1 or 20/1, so the injury argument is a red-herring too.

FWIW these would be my selections:

Appreciate It - Arkle
Honeysuckle - Champion Hurdle
Bob Ollinger - Marsh
Monkfish Gold Cup

I wouldn't be averse to using Shiskin in there either and making it a super yankee.

[Kautostar]

Lots of mentions for dusart but do we know how bad the injury was? Also he’s only raced once in his career is there not a chance he has a full season of hurdling next year instead of fences?

[Istabraq]

Lots of mentions for dusart but do we know how bad the injury was? Also he’s only raced once in his career is there not a chance he has a full season of hurdling next year instead of fences?

Dusart could obviously turn out to be a very decent horse but having seen the power of the Irish G1 hurdlers last week I’m not sure I could back any UK novice ahead of them.
Very few horses have been given firm plans for 2022 but you have to assume the likes of Appreciate It, Blue Lord, Aspire Tower, James du Berlais, Haut en Coluers and a host of others I’ve missed, are all likely to be better should they take a 2m novice chase route....

[Exar Essay]

I'd say this far out the basic criteria should be certainty of race, followed by chance of win. Price shouldn't be a consideration. People were saying 5/1 about Shishkin and Envoi Allen were too short last year, and to a man wished they'd igned their own advice and included them in multiples at that price.

We're in the lap of the gods where injuries are concerned, and if a horse has an ijury he doesn't know whether he's 2/1 or 20/1, so the injury argument is a red-herring too.

FWIW these would be my selections:

Appreciate It - Arkle
Honeysuckle - Champion Hurdle
Bob Ollinger - Marsh
Monkfish Gold Cup

I wouldn't be averse to using Shiskin in there either and making it a super yankee.

I’d agree entirely with this approach. I’d also put up Gaillard du Mesnil (RSA), Flooring Porter (Stayers), and Sir Gerhard (Supreme) on the same basis

[Kautostar]

I'd say this far out the basic criteria should be certainty of race, followed by chance of win. Price shouldn't be a consideration. People were saying 5/1 about Shishkin and Envoi Allen were too short last year, and to a man wished they'd igned their own advice and included them in multiples at that price.

We're in the lap of the gods where injuries are concerned, and if a horse has an ijury he doesn't know whether he's 2/1 or 20/1, so the injury argument is a red-herring too.

FWIW these would be my selections:

Appreciate It - Arkle
Honeysuckle - Champion Hurdle
Bob Ollinger - Marsh
Monkfish Gold Cup

I wouldn't be averse to using Shiskin in there either and making it a super yankee.

Looks very solid but how sure are we that honeysuckle won’t switch to fences? That completely changes the champion hurdle, Arkle and marsh markets if she go’s chasing.

[Ice]

I'm finding it more difficult to pinpoint where horses will go next season than i was this time last year, with sky being the only bookie pricing up TWAR and the awful prices they are showing it's only making things worse !

[charlie]

I'm finding it more difficult to pinpoint where horses will go next season than i was this time last year, with sky being the only bookie pricing up TWAR and the awful prices they are showing it's only making things worse !

Yeh their TWAR market is atrocious. They did make a few early mistakes which have been hosed up, but way too short for almost all of them

[BigChaang]

I haven't rewatched the race yet , But if Monkfish is such a good thing for the Gold Cup , Then Fiddler on the Roof should be considered at 66-1 . currently.

[Spectre]

Looks very solid but how sure are we that honeysuckle won’t switch to fences? That completely changes the champion hurdle, Arkle and marsh markets if she go’s chasing.

You'd never say it's impossible KS, but I'd say it's extremely unlikely as the current Champion Hurdler, who was utterly dominant in her win. And becoming a dual Champion Hurdler will only add to her value in the breeding sheds. There's not much to gain by going down the Arkle route next season given she's 7 already, and she'd be 9 by the time she'd be having her first crack at a Champion Chase. By that time they'd be more likely thinking anout breeding with her. I doubt they'd risk fences when there's alomost certainly another Champion Hurdle to be won next season, so I'd be genuinely shocked if they switched to fences.

[RufusFlynn]

The few that I would consider at this point are:

Fiddlerontheroof - 6.5 lengths behind Monkfish in the RSA, having previously gone close behind next Destination on his first step up to 3m over fences. Tizzards horses haven't been running this well; but this one has ran with credit throughout the season. Joe is taking over next season, but even without this - Tizzards know how to train a staying chaser and can't see any other target other than GC.

The Big Breakaway - 11 lengths further back behind Fiddler but otherwise similar reasoning to the above. is also a year younger than both fiddler and Monkfish and therefore still likely to have improvement to come (he hasn't always looked the most straightforward this season - so hopefully another year will do him some good). Again can't see any other target.

The last few years have seen placed horses in the RSA go on to place in the GC the next year regularly (more so than the winner of the RSA). Prices will have plenty juice in.

Other one would be:

Telmesomethinggirl - for the Mares Hurdle. Decisive winner of the mares novice. Owners supports the mares programme. Honeysuckle has the CH sewn up if she stays over hurdles. Likely to have Rachel riding ( - predicting jockey bookings 12 months out! )

[Garrison Savannah]

This thread makes me realise I need to go back and watch some races for what was in behind.

As an example, Monkfish won the RSA despite jumping poorly. If Fiddlerontheroof was foot perfect, I’m not sure I’d be interested in him next year as you wonder where the improvement was going to come from. If he was impeded by the loose horse or had other bad luck in running I may chance my mind.

Just realised this is more a note to myself rather than being particularly helpful - sorry!

[Birds Nest]

You'd never say it's impossible KS, but I'd say it's extremely unlikely as the current Champion Hurdler, who was utterly dominant in her win. And becoming a dual Champion Hurdler will only add to her value in the breeding sheds. There's not much to gain by going down the Arkle route next season given she's 7 already, and she'd be 9 by the time she'd be having her first crack at a Champion Chase. By that time they'd be more likely thinking anout breeding with her. I doubt they'd risk fences when there's alomost certainly another Champion Hurdle to be won next season, so I'd be genuinely shocked if they switched to fences.

I agree with you Spectre and i add if she did go the unlikely chase route would HDB consider bypassing the novices and going straight to the Champ chase? He would know what would be required via ptko. That would be my only concern over taking her price on the champ hurdle.