Cheltenham 2022 - March Yankee

[Ice]

Just a bit of recency bias there! They won’t all repeat.
Gold cup winners rarely follow up it takes too much out of them, I’d prefer monkfish over minella indo.
Put the kettle on will only be running for places this time she got a soft lead this year and that is unlikely in 2022 with whichever Mullins horse and allmankind in the field.

PTKO is 4 from 4 at Cheltenham and a lot of people said he wouldn't win this season. I'd have no problem with Monkfish, already had a few points on him and fits the bill with the recency bias also !

[Kautostar]

PTKO is 4 from 4 at Cheltenham and a lot of people said he wouldn't win this season. I'd have no problem with Monkfish, already had a few points on him and fits the bill with the recency bias also !

I just don’t think she’s value this year at 10/1 against shishkin and energumene/allaho. Last year she was 20/1 with only really chacun to beat.

[taylorch1990]

If we're considrring ptko then maybe slightly better value would be nube negra, double the price for half a length and catching?

Totally agree with this, only 6 chase starts and only 2 in open company so should have more improvement in him as well.

[archie]

Runners up in championship races coming back and winning the following year is even rarer than champions retaining their crown. I wouldn't be looking at Nube Negra or A Plus Tard even at the longer prices.

[Lobos]

Runners up in championship races coming back and winning the following year is even rarer than champions retaining their crown. I wouldn't be looking at Nube Negra or A Plus Tard even at the longer prices.

Totally agree. Can't have either of those.

[Birds Nest]

Runners up in championship races coming back and winning the following year is even rarer than champions retaining their crown. I wouldn't be looking at Nube Negra or A Plus Tard even at the longer prices.

Its actually a little bit more common in the champion chase... In fact theres a pretty good record for repeaters.. Win or place.

[archie]

Its actually a little bit more common in the champion chase... In fact theres a pretty good record for repeaters.. Win or place.

I think that the only runners up to return and win this century are Edredon Bleu and Politologue. In neither case did the horse that had beaten them turn up to defend the title.

Likewise, only Master Minded and Altior have successfully defended the QM crown this century. They were 2 special horses.

Place is for losers!

[callhimgamblor]

I still like APT for the GC. Another year older and wiser, stronger etc. He wasn't so far away from Minella Indo

[Eggs]

I still like APT for the GC. Another year older and wiser, stronger etc. He wasn't so far away from Minella Indo

....need to factor in potential of the new kids on the block, Monkfish & Envoi.

[archie]

Rather like Nube Negra in the QM, there is just no reason to suppose that A Plus Tard can turn the tables on Minella Indo who has actually had 3 fewer races over fences than APT.

As Eggs says, although I was underwhelmed by Monkfish and EA, they are more likely to be a threat to the champion.

[Kautostar]

Rather like Nube Negra in the QM, there is just no reason to suppose that A Plus Tard can turn the tables on Minella Indo who has actually had 3 fewer races over fences than APT.

As Eggs says, although I was underwhelmed by Monkfish and EA, they are more likely to be a threat to the champion.

Not overly keen on targeting the champion chase for a multi where you’re hoping the fav gets injured or you’re likely just playing for places. Plenty of other races to go at where the win part is in play.

[callhimgamblor]

Big Breakaway kept Monkfish honest this year. What's he lining up in 2022? I can't believe he will be sent to the GC but can't see him listed in anything else. TBH I don't think monkfish is ready for the GC either. Or EA. Id sent all three to the Ryanair.

[Istabraq]

Big Breakaway kept Monkfish honest this year. What's he lining up in 2022? I can't believe he will be sent to the GC but can't see him listed in anything else. TBH I don't think monkfish is ready for the GC either. Or EA. Id sent all three to the Ryanair.

So much depends on how the dynamics change in the yard but I agree TBB won't be winning many G1s let alone a blue ribband.
At 148 he could be campaigned lightly with a view to the 3m handicap (Ultima), that all gets ruined if he runs well in top grade company and finds himself 155 come March but if Joe is cute with him the handicap plan might work...

[Outlaw]

So much depends on how the dynamics change in the yard but I agree TBB won't be winning many G1s let alone a blue ribband.
At 148 he could be campaigned lightly with a view to the 3m handicap (Ultima), that all gets ruined if he runs well in top grade company and finds himself 155 come March but if Joe is cute with him the handicap plan might work...

I’ve found myself yo-yo with TBB as to whether I rate him or not, started off not so keen then after his Kempton run thought there is plenty to come if he brushes his jumping up. Even thou it’s early enough days in his career I’d be agreeing in aiming him at hcaps in & around 150, expect to see him rock up in the Hennessy next year & see where he’s at.

[Viking Flagship]

I think that the only runners up to return and win this century are Edredon Bleu and Politologue. In neither case did the horse that had beaten them turn up to defend the title.

Likewise, only Master Minded and Altior have successfully defended the QM crown this century. They were 2 special horses.

Place is for losers!

That turn of phrase makes it sound rather dramatic. "This century" consists of 21 festivals so with 4 examples of 1st/2nd place returning to win that's pretty much 1 in 5... which is actually not that bad a strike rate.