Tracking 2022 Odds

[Lobos]

Mullins re Appreciate It immediately after Supreme....

I had in my head that, possibly, he would be an Arkle horse. I never envisaged him as a Champion Hurdle Horse, but who knows?

I think personally he will go Arkle and with Honeysuckle sticking to Hurdles I think that will force Mullins hand as I really don't see any gelding giving her 7lbs and a beating. He may though decide that it's too late to send him chasing. As he says......who knows ?

[Saxon Warrior]

Mullins re Appreciate It immediately after Supreme....

I had in my head that, possibly, he would be an Arkle horse. I never envisaged him as a Champion Hurdle Horse, but who knows?

I think personally he will go Arkle and with Honeysuckle sticking to Hurdles I think that will force Mullins hand as I really don't see any gelding giving her 7lbs and a beating. He may though decide that it's too late to send him chasing. As he says......who knows ?

Thats the last I heard from WPM on the subject.

Thats why I have largely left the Arkle alone, since.

[Atlantic Viking]

Edit: Ignore that, oddschecker was wrong! Mods, feel free to delete.

[Lbur4288]

Paddy Power/Betfair have trimmed I am Maximus to 16/1 for the Supreme although odds haven't moved elsewhere.

[Spectre]

It's worth starting to take notice of these kinds of things now, especially when a cut seems random. Thanks for highlighting. Bookies cuts often happen as the work for stable tours is being done and significant information comes out. August is a big month for stable visits and interviews for future publications. It's possible that a significant figure has backed him, say Mark Howard or Paul Ferguson, or any of the well known journos that write stable tours. PP can be privy to betting information that others aren't.

[Eggs]

….I am Maximus 16-1 in Hills a/r market if anybody wants to cover all bases (only 10-1 Sky).

[Lbur4288]

Another thing of note which has really got me paying attention is that PP Betfair have also moved Jonbon into 8/1 2nd favourite for the Ballymore (same price as Supreme). They surely have access to stable information?

[ComplyOrDie]

Another thing of note which has really got me paying attention is that PP Betfair have also moved Jonbon into 8/1 2nd favourite for the Ballymore (same price as Supreme). They surely have access to stable information?

Henderson - Unibet
Willie (through Ruby) - PP
Gordon - Betfair
Nicholls - Betfair

Even given the above list, the level of information given out or taken seriously at this time of the year, especially with regards to novices is probably limited.

PP/Betfair were biggest price for Appreciate It for the Supreme for quite a while, albeit it took Ferny Hollow getting injured to re-route Appreciate It to the race, but does show that Willie probably cares little about what prices the bookmakers have for a horse, at any point during the season, connected to the yard or not.

With regards to Jonbon and PP/Betfair, he's 8/1 for the Supreme as well, I'm guessing they are probably taking a very cautious view on him, given he's a full brother to Douvan and has looked nothing but impressive to date.

[Lbur4288]

Without doubt the bad guys are all taking a very cautious approach in their prices for the festival next year. They got whooped last year and I'd imagine have big liabilities from their specials rolling into 2022. I just find the odds slash on those two today of interest given that nobody else has made the same move yet.

[Spectre]

I've just looked at the Ballymore market too, and Jonbon has had a significant cut to 8/1 second favourite ahead of 14/1 Sire Gerhard, both by PP and BF. Not coincidence, given we're talking about the same stable and we know both horses are very highly regarded by them. PP are almost certainly in possession of information that we're not, and don't want to take money on the two horses

The PP/BF cut to 16/1 on I am Maximus makes him fourth in their book behind Sir Gerhard, Kilcruit, and Jonbon. Then it's 20/1 bar. But general consensus says both Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit won't both come here, and if the Jonbon cut in the Ballymore is a genuine indication of where the stable think the two of them will end up, I Am Maximus is effectively second favourite behind one of the two Mullins horse, most likely Sir Gerhard.

I've topped up my original bets on I am Maximus at 50/1 for The Supreme, and Jonbon 12/1 for the Ballymore both with 365.

[Spectre]

Sorry just seen a couple more of us have noticed the Jonbon move too.

[ComplyOrDie]

I've just looked at the Ballymore market too, and Jonbon has had a significant cut to 8/1 second favourite ahead of 14/1 Sire Gerhard, both by PP and BF. Not coincidence, given we're talking about the same stable and we know both horses are very highly regarded by them. PP are almost certainly in possession of information that we're not, and don't want to take money on the two horses

Has Jonbon moved stable then?

Was with Hendo, and Sir G with Willie.

[Spectre]

Has Jonbon moved stable then?

Was with Hendo, and Sir G with Willie.

No Jonbon and I Am Maximus with Hendo. Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit with Willie. No change.

[Spectre]

When I was referring to the same stable I was referring the the price cuts for both I Am Maximus and Jonbon.

[ComplyOrDie]

When I was referring to the same stable I was referring the the price cuts for both I Am Maximus and Jonbon.

Ah yeah, fair enough