Going Chasing / Staying Hurdling.

[Craigy14]

BDA was a shoe in for the MNH all last season and failed to deliver on judgement day. I am more than happy to take her on again at this stage and at that price. Kargese, although not too far off in terms of price if she learns to settle better will improve past her imo. Really fond of her. What is it with Kenny Alexander buying horses that are just so likeable.

I think recency bias is playing a part with Kargese, in that Lossiemouth is the only top class juvenile I can remember to go on and be competitive the following year. Kargese may do so but the odds are against her. We see it so often where juveniles struggle in open company. Yes they may win some races along the way but it seems it eventually catches up with them.

[DenmanSacre]

I think recency bias is playing a part with Kargese, in that Lossiemouth is the only top class juvenile I can remember to go on and be competitive the following year. Kargese may do so but the odds are against her. We see it so often where juveniles struggle in open company. Yes they may win some races along the way but it seems it eventually catches up with them.

Espoir DAllen.

Vauban improved from 147 in the Triumph to 161 the following year. Obviously didn't win but he was up against State Man and Constitution Hill.

Il Etait Temps - 136 to 157 next season

Lossiemouth 143 to 156.

Zanahiyr 145 to 161.

All stayed hurdling the next year and improved around a stone. A stone improvement for Kargese would put her close in a normal Mares Hurdle and could be found through her settling better. I haven't backed her but if we look at improvement from 4 to 5 for some of the better juveniles that stayed hurdling, they improve a fair bit.

The Mares is also probably the easiest open grade 1 to win at the Festival.

[Craigy14]

Espoir DAllen.

Vauban improved from 147 in the Triumph to 161 the following year. Obviously didn't win but he was up against State Man and Constitution Hill.

Il Etait Temps - 136 to 157 next season

Lossiemouth 143 to 156.

Zanahiyr 145 to 161.

All stayed hurdling the next year and improved around a stone. A stone improvement for Kargese would put her close in a normal Mares Hurdle and could be found through her settling better. I haven't backed her but if we look at improvement from 4 to 5 for some of the better juveniles that stayed hurdling, they improve a fair bit.

The Mares is also probably the easiest open grade 1 to win at the Festival.

I forgot Espoir D’Allen as soon as I finished writing so knew he would be brought up.

Lossiemouth is who I’m talking about so can’t really use her when I’ve based my argument around her.

Vauban for all he improved in rating didn’t win a race over hurdles since his juvenile season, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Il Etait Temps was a second season novice and also wasn’t a top class juvenile, didn’t back it up the following year at Cheltenham.

Zanahiyr again improved but won once in her first run at Down Royal against a poor field, didn’t win again, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Agree that they did improve not arguing that, just saying there’s very few juveniles who go onto win the next year at Cheltenham, which is what we are here to do, find Cheltenham winners. She may be competitive but at 7/1 there’s not a lot of wiggle room. How many of us thought Gala Marceau or Goshen would improve and be competitive? Most of us I’d say, there’s more that don’t make the cut than do. They can improve of course they can but to back up the following year is hard.

[Istabraq]

Pretty out of order for Gordon to announce she was going chasing then change his mind. Unless they hadn't schooled her and then realised she couldn't jump i see no reason why. I bet a few bookies are happy with him. They have just made thousands for nothing on the back of his comments. I will say no more on that as i don't want a libel case but it's a bit suss

Yes you're right, but it's us punters who follow every word muttered by trainers that is really to blame.
This didn't happen in the era where there weren't a million media outlets covering the sport 24/7...

[Lobos]

Yes you're right, but it's us punters who follow every word muttered by trainers that is really to blame.
This didn't happen in the era where there weren't a million media outlets covering the sport 24/7...

Agree. I'm still a bit old school and go with my gut a lot of the time and try to ignore trainer, jockey, pundits comments this far out. Doesn't always work out but there's only one person I can blame.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agree. I'm still a bit old school and go with my gut a lot of the time and try to ignore trainer, jockey, pundits comments this far out. Doesn't always work out but there's only one person I can blame.

Yep, that’s more or less same as myself, but there’s plenty of posts on here using trainer quotes to back up their opinions.
End of the day it really is not right for a trainer to say something that helps people part with money, and then change after.
Just don’t say things that can be considered as factual, surely cannot be that hard if one is an honest individual.

[Exar Essay]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

[DenmanSacre]

I forgot Espoir D’Allen as soon as I finished writing so knew he would be brought up.

Lossiemouth is who I’m talking about so can’t really use her when I’ve based my argument around her.

Vauban for all he improved in rating didn’t win a race over hurdles since his juvenile season, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Il Etait Temps was a second season novice and also wasn’t a top class juvenile, didn’t back it up the following year at Cheltenham.

Zanahiyr again improved but won once in her first run at Down Royal against a poor field, didn’t win again, didn’t win at Cheltenham following year.

Agree that they did improve not arguing that, just saying there’s very few juveniles who go onto win the next year at Cheltenham, which is what we are here to do, find Cheltenham winners. She may be competitive but at 7/1 there’s not a lot of wiggle room. How many of us thought Gala Marceau or Goshen would improve and be competitive? Most of us I’d say, there’s more that don’t make the cut than do. They can improve of course they can but to back up the following year is hard.

It is difficult for them to win the open grade 1s at 5 but the Mares is the easiest of them. There's usually a big gap between the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle winner and those finishing placed in the Champion Hurdle, as Zanahiyr did, would generally be better than the average Mares Hurdle winner.

Apples Jade is another one - should have won the Triumph and won the Mares Hurdle the next year.

2 of the last 8 Mares Hurdle winners were 5 year olds and I haven't checked but the number of runners would I'd imagine be low.

I've not backed Kargese but her being a 5 year old wouldn't put me off. Her keenness and her probably not needing 2m4 is why I haven't backed her. If she improves a stone like the horses in my example, she'd be bang there though. Rated 139 at Cheltenham last year so an extra stone puts her at 153.

That would have put her 2nd last season, joint second 2023, won 2022, joint winner 2021 and so on.

[Craigy14]

It is difficult for them to win the open grade 1s at 5 but the Mares is the easiest of them. There's usually a big gap between the Champion Hurdle and the Mares Hurdle winner and those finishing placed in the Champion Hurdle, as Zanahiyr did, would generally be better than the average Mares Hurdle winner.

Apples Jade is another one - should have won the Triumph and won the Mares Hurdle the next year.

2 of the last 8 Mares Hurdle winners were 5 year olds and I haven't checked but the number of runners would I'd imagine be low.

I've not backed Kargese but her being a 5 year old wouldn't put me off. Her keenness and her probably not needing 2m4 is why I haven't backed her. If she improves a stone like the horses in my example, she'd be bang there though. Rated 139 at Cheltenham last year so an extra stone puts her at 153.

That would have put her 2nd last season, joint second 2023, won 2022, joint winner 2021 and so on.

Aye I think you’re spot on with the mares assessment DS. But given there are already older potentially smarter horses that have been forgotten about or not with a ‘sexy’ trainer, Kargese price is poor imo.

Shes priced because of what Lossiemouth did last year and if they took her out the market they would probably have her sub 3/1.

[Lobos]

BDA won't truly be 6 until next March so that might have been at the back of their minds. Still a big baby and can go chasing next season.

[DenmanSacre]

Aye I think you’re spot on with the mares assessment DS. But given there are already older potentially smarter horses that have been forgotten about or not with a ‘sexy’ trainer, Kargese price is poor imo.

Shes priced because of what Lossiemouth did last year and if they took her out the market they would probably have her sub 3/1.

No argument with the price. I wouldn't back her at her current price without knowing she can settle. I think BDA and Golden Ace can be 150+ horses as well so looks like plenty of competition.

[Yosser]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

Probably is the case Exar. It doesn't really affect me to be honest. I was in the Jade De Grugy camp and backed her for the Mares Chase. It obviously affects my mares hurdle bets but if Willie decides to send Kargese chasing and JDG to remain over hurdles then I've had a bad result for sure. Its probably why I am so keen to take her on. Best result for me is she gets beat first time out and then i can get her onside

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yosser I know it’s a massive pain and I am sure trainers do put punters away sometimes, but in this case I don’t think that’s the case.

You’d mentioned elsewhere that your hunch was that she’d schooled badly. I agree. In which case, the change of opinion is justified.

If that’s the case then the trainer should wait until schooling to say he is going chasing.
However one looks at it, the trainer has cost at least 1 punters money.

[BuckingThe Trend]

BDA was 2 lengths behind Golden Ace in 2024 Mares Novice Hurdle. Golden Ace was 9 lengths behind Dysart Enos in the Aintree Bumper in 2023. Sometimes we can't see the wood for the trees. Why over complicate the 2025 Mares Hurdle. Thank me in March. Unless Lossiemouth turns up to ruin the Party.

[Lobos]

There's no hurdles in Bumper races though BTT. GA is currently at a different level over hurdles. Could all change though of course.