Lessons learned

[Quevega]

Yeah each to their own. I had Poniros for a 160pt return as it was easy to get on. But only Lulamba and EID for 120pt. So sometimes it pays dividends. But I really couldn’t work out that race.

I took a much stronger view on Inothewayurthinkin which paid dividends.

I’ve shit lined again - PP left their GC market up during this years event. 20/1 about the winner was snaffled. Just missed Wodhooh too after the pipe as I was busy chasing out Kopek De Mee.

Definitely where I take my eye off the ball.
During Cheltenham week I'm generally exhausted and barely sleeping, so just not focussed on pinching prices for next year.
But credit for those that do as obviously the bookies are sometimes too busy themselves and leave open goals.

Well done on that price as he looks more than capable of doubling up, although also maybe the type to get beaten at other tracks during the season.

[Exar Essay]

Definitely where I take my eye off the ball.
During Cheltenham week I'm generally exhausted and barely sleeping, so just not focussed on pinching prices for next year.
But credit for those that do as obviously the bookies are sometimes too busy themselves and leave open goals.

Well done on that price as he looks more than capable of doubling up, although also maybe the type to get beaten at other tracks during the season.

Yeah I think that is a strength of mine - always being switched on.

The beauty of it is that the others are now inherently a price. I think I’ve pretty much built my book.

So even if he drifts, something else backed (probably FTF or GDC) will shorten.

Plenty left to add a couple of flyers too.

[Benjy23]

Anyone put any good bets on this time of year for the next festival?

I think my lessons learned may be don't bother for the next 6 months or so.

Maybe any that didn't turn up at Cheltenham but may run at Aintree or Punchestown could be a (immediate) value based exclusion to this. But I wouldn't even like them in terms of actual winners.

[Eggs]

Anyone put any good bets on this time of year for the next festival?

I think my lessons learned may be don't bother for the next 6 months or so.

Maybe any that didn't turn up at Cheltenham but may run at Aintree or Punchestown could be a (immediate) value based exclusion to this. But I wouldn't even like them in terms of actual winners.

….i think it might have been Quevega who put up an informative post about the number of returning Cheltenham winners who did well this year. Might be worth concentrating on horses who won last week rather than those that missed the Festival.

[Irish Rugby]

After 2 years of losses at Cheltenham, I ended up in around a 25pt profit. The Albert Bartlett was my saving grace as I found small multiples with Kopek, The New Lion and Fact to File, gave me great positions on Jasmin De Vaux, The New Westerner and Jet Blue, so much so I was able to back 4 others on the day, as cover.

This year I had concentrated only on the four big races before up to Christmas, including Marine Nationale, Bob Olinger and Inowhatyourthinkin. I thought I had the Champion Hurdle covered but like many I hadn’t, completely disregarding the outsiders, something I made sure I had covered on Friday in case the GC had a similar shock.

Going forward, a similar strategy, utilising roll ups and free bets as much as possible.

Won’t be placing any bets on novice hurdlers and chasers until the season starts. I literally read everything here on a daily basis and throughout the year, so you need to give the time to it.

Handicaps. Day only bets and get as many places as possible. Small stakes though.

Biggest success. Bob Olinger. Only backed him in 5 roll ups. 3 of those won back in October.

Biggest regret. Lecky Watson. There was a lot to like about his win at Naas in December, comfortably dealing with Slade Steel, and then again in Punchestown in January, where I watched him win the Grade 3 chase that day. I was sucked into Ballyburn and Dancing City and to an extent, Better Days Ahead.

Got lucky with a lot of small multiples that started with Kopek and The New Lion (paid for the ones that included Final Demand) that landed on Stumptown and Bambino Fever, Dinoblue and Jasmin.

This year will split stakes between the top stables’ higher novice hurdlers and novice chasers. If I’d done that back in January, would have had Kopek covered at nice odds in the Supreme.

[Benjy23]

….i think it might have been Quevega who put up an informative post about the number of returning Cheltenham winners who did well this year. Might be worth concentrating on horses who won last week rather than those that missed the Festival.

Aye, that's kind of my point. Which may have been missed slightly. It's obvious like. Course and festival form stands above all else.

It's just the one exception that might prove value right now is horses that didn't run at the festival but might win grade 1s in the next month or so.

To the actual point which was... Don't bet on the festival at all this time of year. Those that have just won will be poor prices. And those that haven't probably won't win anyway

[Quevega]

DenmanSacre has made a note in his new diary about the ground, and cited the very good examples of Caldwell Potter & Iknowthewayurthinkin.

I know there will be punters that would not have backed either based on comments that so called experts have made.


One of the things that annoy me when listening to trainers - pundits - tipsters - punters - talking about ground for horses, is they often sound like they are experts/clever and have a special nuanced skill to betting and predicting. When most of the time they are just spewing out nonsense because they've been brainwashed by previous trainer comments and form.

The excuses and form on certain ground, are more often than not - self fulfilling.
Because once a trainer states a ground preference, they'll more often than not run when it's closer to this, and not so much when it's not.
You must also remember that trainers need those that pay them to be believers, and have faith in their "expertise"

For all those that do pay a lot of attention to the ground.

I do understand that it is a factor, especially with regards pace and stamina and individual horses perceived ability for either or both.
But the issue with that is still not knowing what sort of gallop they might go, during the race. And what position the jockey may take up.

Again I appreciate you could look at the line up (and previous form/habits) and get a gauge on that as well.

I would also acknowledge that with Flat horses the ground may play a bigger part. I would factor this in more in my thinking.
Flat races can be ran on much more extreme grounds, even at grade 1 level.
The difference in the action of flat bred horses can be much more distinct, but this is much less so with top level NH breds as they generally don't run on fast ground.


So the one aspect of the ground debate I have never bought into (for NH horses specifically), except for maybe a very small percentage of horses (where the evidence is substantial) -

It's when they say a horse "won't go on this sort of ground", and needs a certain ground to be at their best.
This sort of thing is Bollocks almost all of the time.


And most importantly, when the ground is Good to Soft - it's kind of a level playing field really. No real excuses should be made.

The main point here is don't get blindsided by worrying too much about the ground for most horses.

[Lbur4288]

I've been doing win only for years and this year has made me think I'd have come out of this week a lot lot happier with some each way returns. Thought the hoodoo was over when I qualified for the Bet365 £10 offer with a winning bet and then go and use the credit on a win only antepost (accidently).

[Hurricane fly]

I've been doing win only for years and this year has made me think I'd have come out of this week a lot lot happier with some each way returns. Thought the hoodoo was over when I qualified for the Bet365 £10 offer with a winning bet and then go and use the credit on a win only antepost (accidently).

One thing e/w does help is build momentum, having 3 or 4 races with 0 returns is quite demoralising.

Always a balance, if 2021 happened again I'd be fuming I had wasted money on the place angle

[robith]

What did I learn?

Absolutely nothing

[Eggs]

I've been doing win only for years and this year has made me think I'd have come out of this week a lot lot happier with some each way returns. Thought the hoodoo was over when I qualified for the Bet365 £10 offer with a winning bet and then go and use the credit on a win only antepost (accidently).

….i only do e/w when NRNB comes into play.

Used daily Hills boost on NRNB doubles and it’s often 50% boost. Didn’t manage to connect but had a few placed and NRs going onto e/w singles. For less than a cup of coffee stake, the returns can be generous and I’ll certainly be doing the same next year.

[Irish Rugby]

….i only do e/w when NRNB comes into play.

Used daily Hills boost on NRNB doubles and it’s often 50% boost. Didn’t manage to connect but had a few placed and NRs going onto e/w singles. For less than a cup of coffee stake, the returns can be generous and I’ll certainly be doing the same next year.

Same as Eggs. Found the WH boosts handy throughout the year, as well as the NRNB doubles though more so from February, once their prices came more into line with other firms. As usual, their prices in January were woeful, though again they are first out of the traps with the NRNB concession.

[Lbur4288]

….i only do e/w when NRNB comes into play.

Used daily Hills boost on NRNB doubles and it’s often 50% boost. Didn’t manage to connect but had a few placed and NRs going onto e/w singles. For less than a cup of coffee stake, the returns can be generous and I’ll certainly be doing the same next year.

I probably should but this is the first year trialling each way for myself so I'll go the full hog and see how I do. I have halved my stake to accommodate the each way but it's a necessary sacrifice for myself given I only landed the last winner of the festival with win only (annoyingly, I had 4 horses for the wrong race at nice prices).

[Lbur4288]

One thing e/w does help is build momentum, having 3 or 4 races with 0 returns is quite demoralising.

Always a balance, if 2021 happened again I'd be fuming I had wasted money on the place angle

Absolutely, I had a couple of very good years on the spin and some not so very good but this year was sobering from a betting antepost standpoint. I'm being a bit less stubborn when it comes to avoiding some horses I don't particularly fancy that are going to contract a lot in price. Maybe it's a knee jerk reaction/fear of missing out but I do want to try and give myself more darts per race.

[FinalFurlong91]

Personally I think e/w is only useful if you are book building

As someone who usually backs 2 or 3 horses for the races i would always rather have 1pt win on 2 horses than back 1 e/w

if i was to back both each way I'd be doubling my outlay or halving my win

something that i could only see dropping my overall return in the long run

your either doubling the hit when a horse goes elsewhere or injured or you are halving a win when it lands

that's always how iv seen it anyway

I guess if I was getting most of the runners backed I'd want to be not only getting the winner but also fill the places to maintain my profit margin